D2D's NBA, NHL and MLB Daily wagers.......

[Dollars2Donuts]

At the airport now. Will post more pics momentarily.

Lost the first tennis action, but still a + in the $$$ department thanks to Sock and Klizan.

[Kpn]

At the airport now. Will post more pics momentarily.

Lost the first tennis action, but still a + in the $$$ department thanks to Sock and Klizan.

At the ole YVR? You got your car waiting or you park it somewhere along the Canada-line?

[Dollars2Donuts]

Lol, no, I am at YEG about to head back to Van. I have almost 2 hours to kill now.....should make for a LOAD of new picks!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ok....3 more nice plays for tonight. I wish the juice wasn't quite so high on the Wild/Blues game, and I also wish it was at 5.5 BUT I also wish I was a billionaire. The OKC game is going to be fire works (and I hope OKC comes through for us)....

Anyway, GL!!

174158716-1	4/11/13 6:39pm	$157.50	$150.00		Pending	4/11/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 503 Oklahoma City Thunder/Golden State Warriors Over 203½ -105*
174158653-1	4/11/13 6:39pm	$210.00	$200.00		Pending	4/11/13 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 911 Oakland Athletics/Los Angeles Angels Over 8 -105* (A Griffin - R must Start J Vargas - L must Start)
174158653-2	4/11/13 6:39pm	$187.50	$150.00		Pending	4/11/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 13 St. Louis Blues/Minnesota Wild Under 5 -125*

[Dollars2Donuts]

Wowsa....just looking at my stats on 5dimes.....

900 wagers in 60 days for $115,000

15 wagers a day for almost $2,000.....

Where are all the people telling me that I would go broke betting this many games? Lol....not that I want them around on the thread.....am I getting close to making those people into believers? Thats a lot of bets.....and you would think if variance was going to kill me that it would have done it by now....

Seriously, not tooting my horn here......I am being completely serious.....I just want to know if anyone still thinks that this is a statistical abnormality and that it will even out.....and I am not saying it won't.

Damn, I feel great about tonights games....but if anyone has noticed Seaweed played a 4 team parlay for tonight that is EXACTLY the opposite of 4 of my games....I wish we could both win 'em.

[bald_guy]

Wowsa....just looking at my stats on 5dimes.....

900 wagers in 60 days for $115,000

15 wagers a day for almost $2,000.....

Where are all the people telling me that I would go broke betting this many games? Lol....not that I want them around on the thread.....am I getting close to making those people into believers? Thats a lot of bets.....and you would think if variance was going to kill me that it would have done it by now....

Seriously, not tooting my horn here......I am being completely serious.....I just want to know if anyone still thinks that this is a statistical abnormality and that it will even out.....and I am not saying it won't.

Damn, I feel great about tonights games....but if anyone has noticed Seaweed played a 4 team parlay for tonight that is EXACTLY the opposite of 4 of my games....I wish we could both win 'em.

I'm very glad of your success. And I'm starting to follow you and doing well at a much smaller unit wager. LOL

But until you stop gambling (or slow way down) and until you actually get all the money that's due to you (and if you read the forums, sometimes its not always so easy to do), I would try to stay humble. Not to mention you haven't been on here recording your success for that many days in the scope of things.

Its never over till its over. Books love to take in money, but not as eager to pay big dollars out. Some even fold clear up.

Wish you a safe flight and lets hope these new picks cash. Thanks for your picks as always.

[Dollars2Donuts]

I'm very glad of your success. And I'm starting to follow you and doing well at a much smaller unit wager. LOL

But until you stop gambling (or slow way down) and until you actually get all the money that's due to you (and if you read the forums, sometimes its not always so easy to do), I would try to stay humble. Not to mention you haven't been on here recording your success for that many days in the scope of things.

Its never over till its over. Books love to take in money, but not as eager to pay big dollars out. Some even fold clear up.

Wish you a safe flight and lets hope these new picks cash. Thanks for your picks as always.

Please search for my thread. I have documented and recorded EVERY wager for 60 days......

And as I was trying to exlain (and maybe you didn't understand) I am trying to be humble....there is nothing bragadocious about what I was saying.

I seriously wanted to know if all of the people that had been following me were past the point of 'statistical anomaly'. I had a ton of people telling me two months ago tht it ws impossible to pick more than a couple of games per day and be successful.....it was a serious question to those people.

Again, please go find my original thread.....every day has been documented.


D2D

[bald_guy]

Please search for my thread. I have documented and recorded EVERY wager for 60 days......

And as I was trying to exlain (and maybe you didn't understand) I am trying to be humble....there is nothing bragadocious about what I was saying.

I seriously wanted to know if all of the people that had been following me were past the point of 'statistical anomaly'. I had a ton of people telling me two months ago tht it ws impossible to pick more than a couple of games per day and be successful.....it was a serious question to those people.

Again, please go find my original thread.....every day has been documented.


D2D

I have been following both your threads. And I ONLY answered your question to the best of my ability cause you asked the question. LOL If you didn't ask, I wouldn't have said what I did. I have been thinking of the very question you asked for some time now.

Anyway, sorry I didn't say what you wanted to hear. But hope you don't hate me, I'm a big fan of yours and wish you (and myself following you) continued success.

[Dollars2Donuts]

I have been following both your threads. And I ONLY answered your question to the best of my ability cause you asked the question. LOL If you didn't ask, I wouldn't have said what I did. I have been thinking of the very question you asked for some time now.

Anyway, sorry I didn't say what you wanted to hear. But hope you don't hate me, I'm a big fan of yours and wish you (and myself following you) continued success.

Hate you? For what? It wasn't that you answered something that I didn't want to hear, it sounded like you didn't know I had been posting all along and I wanted to clarify that.

I guess I should have clarified.....I am looking for the people that didn't think it was possible AND wondering when I would reach the point when the sheer number of wagers had become 'statistically significant'.....that's all....

[El Sol]

You'll probably start losing if you get in the bad habit of chasing loses. Have no idea if you do or not, but that's is how 90% of all betters lose their bankroll. As long as you don't give in to that mind set and keep you bet size at a percentage according to your bankroll, you'll be fine.

But as far as the number of wagers a day is considered bad!? . Thats non sense. It doesnt matter if you do 10 in a day or ten in a year, its still ten bets. You bet when you find an edge, and pass when you don't. I think most betters don't make enough bets in my opinion as generally you make the bet when your margin is at least 1% IMO. Most betters don't have the slightest idea as to how to find their edge so they attempt to find that mythical daily one or two sure thing...

[bald_guy]

Hate you? For what? It wasn't that you answered something that I didn't want to hear, it sounded like you didn't know I had been posting all along and I wanted to clarify that.

I guess I should have clarified.....I am looking for the people that didn't think it was possible AND wondering when I would reach the point when the sheer number of wagers had become 'statistically significant'.....that's all....

That's cool. Well, I think what you did so far is very Statistically Significant. I'm very curious how you do as some sports seasons end, and others begin. Seems you have insight in a variety of sports.

However, I'm not sure 60 days is enough time to know for sure how it will end up money wise.

I know exactly what you been doing and I made sure your results was legit before I started following you.

Anyway, that's my answer. Be interesting to see what others think on this subject.

Also, I noticed as soon as I try to bet on some of your spots, they have changed some. This may be a sign, people may be following you with some big money.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Lol, as long as I get my money in first I am ok....but yeah, I have seen a ton of movement in some of my games lately....almost weird....although I am 100% sure it has nothing to do with me.

[Kpn]

Lol, as long as I get my money in first I am ok....but yeah, I have seen a ton of movement in some of my games lately....almost weird....although I am 100% sure it has nothing to do with me.

There's big rollers consistently placing much more than 10,000$ wagers per game all over the place in Vegas alone, just confirmation bias cause people see the see same things when looking at something or if someone is in/out game time decision, ect.

[fitguy67]

You'll probably start losing if you get in the bad habit of chasing loses. Have no idea if you do or not, but that's is how 90% of all betters lose their bankroll. As long as you don't give in to that mind set and keep you bet size at a percentage according to your bankroll, you'll be fine.

But as far as the number of wagers a day is considered bad!? . Thats non sense. "It doesnt matter if you do 1000 bets in 60 days or in 3 years, it is still 1000 bets". You bet when you find an edge, and pass when you don't. I think most betters don't make enough bets in my opinion as generally you make the bet when your margin is at least 1% IMO. Most betters don't have the slightest idea as to how to find their edge so they attempt to find that mythical daily one or two sure thing...

slightly modified that sentence so it applies perfectly here...if you put on 14 plays a day as D2D or if it takes 2 weeks to hit that many...really makes no difference as long as the plays are of similar value...

generally speaking, most around here would consider a 1000-play record meaningful...

I agree with the Sol...u gotta get comfortable with the idea of going to bed some nights a loser...and fight the temptation to "chase" or "get revenge" (for bad beats that the market "owes" you)...cuz if you do...sooner or later it DOES end tragically...BTW, one of the most tempting gateways to serious chase-/revenge-driven bankroll-damage is "live betting"...these are guaranteed -EV over tym (no matter how clever they make u feel when they apparently "worked" this tym)..two reasons...

1. much less TIME to "cap"=think/decide/pull trigger...pre-game u have hours...in-game u have minutes...rushed decision-making doesn't bode well over the haul for quality of picks (especially with the common motivation of "rescuing"="getting revenge for"="chasing...ie. adrenaline-driven/subjective rather than value-focused/objective)

2. much worse PRICE...ie. bigger juice-spread (pre-game 10-points -105 pricing...during the game 30-points -115 pricing)...

____________

no reason u can't continue on the same path...but u gotta continue doing the same things...and avoid the "chasing" bugaboo...especially the seemingly-innocent slippery-slope of trying to "compensate" in-game for what looks like a pre-game bet that won't work...

far better to take the losses on your pre-game bets "like a man"...and get revenge for them the old fashioned way...with other carefully-placed pre-game bets...and NOT, repeat NOT trying to instant-gratification your way out of 'em by giving in to the in-game temptation

Bets placed pre-game are investing...

in contrast...bets placed in-game (especially with accelerating bet-sizes determined by the magnitude of the subjective "loss itch" you're trying to scratch...not by any objectively-determined edge) are worse than gambling...they are playing financial "chicken" with the capital you built up slowly with careful pre-game wagers
__________

your increasing use of in-game wagering is the ONLY thing that concerns me regarding the long-term sustainability of your success...and I really want you to succeed long-term...cuz you, my friend, are a "one stop shop" for a hi-volume of hi-value picks...and I'm not alone in wanting to keep 'em coming

my suggestion is keep doing exactly as you have been doing...but decide here and now to forego completely the seductive (yet -EV) charms of live-gambling...you KNOW you'll get whatever capital u feel the market "owes" you over the upcoming days/weeks as your +EV pre-game wagers do their thing...confidence breeds patience...confidence + patience = composure

Go units (always our favorite team)!!!

[MonkeyMoney]

freaking haas man....

[MonkeyMoney]

i said the islanders were a good pick and winnipeg turned on their jets!! 6-2 in the second

[Coreos]

slightly modified that sentence so it applies perfectly here...if you put on 14 plays a day as D2D or if it takes 2 weeks to hit that many...really makes no difference as long as the plays are of similar value...

generally speaking, most around here would consider a 1000-play record meaningful...

I agree with the Sol...u gotta get comfortable with the idea of going to bed some nights a loser...and fight the temptation to "chase" or "get revenge" (for bad beats that the market "owes" you)...sooner or later it DOES bite you in the ass big tym...BTW, one of the most tempting gateways to serious chase-/revenge-driven bankroll-damage is "live betting"...these are guaranteed -EV over tym (no matter how clever they make u feel when they apparently "worked" this tym)..two reasons...

1. much less TIME to "cap"=think/decide/pull trigger...pre-game u have hours...in-game u have minutes...rushed decision-making doesn't bode well over the haul for quality of picks (especially with the common motivation of "rescuing"="getting revenge for"="chasing...ie. adrenaline-driven/subjective rather than value-focused/objective)

2. much worse PRICE...ie. bigger juice-spread (pre-game 10-points -105 pricing...during the game 30-points -115 pricing)...

____________

no reason u can't continue on the same path...but u gotta continue doing the same things...and avoid the "chasing" bugaboo...especially the seemingly-innocent slippery-slope of trying to "compensate" in-game for what looks like a pre-game bet that won't work...

far better to take the losses on your pre-game bets "like a man"...and get revenge for them the old fashioned way...with other carefully-placed pre-game bets...and NOT, repeat NOT trying to instant-gratification your way out of 'em by giving in to the in-game temptation

Bets placed pre-game are investing...

in contrast...bets placed in-game (especially with accelerating bet-sizes determined by the magnitude of the subjective "loss itch" you're trying to scratch...not by any objectively-determined edge) are worse than gambling...they are playing financial "chicken" with the capital you built up slowly with careful pre-game wagers
__________

your increasing use of in-game wagering (ie. plays you "cap" with your stomach rather than your head) is the ONLY thing that concerns me regarding the long-term sustainability of your success

my suggestion is keep doing exactly as you have been doing...but decide here and now to forego completely the seductive (yet -EV) charms of live-gambling...you KNOW you'll get whatever capital u feel the market "owes" you over the upcoming days/weeks as your +EV pre-game wagers do their thing...confidence breeds patience...confidence + patience = composure

Go units (always our favorite team)!!!

Agree that if you're doing live betting to chase, it may not be the best thing, but it is phenomenal if it is done correctly. If you're able to watch the flow of the game and pick your spots correctly, live betting is where it's at. For example, during last night's Spurs/Denver game, the Spurs were down 20+ pts or something and I was able to snag them at +15. I do not foresee a quality team like the Spurs losing by 15 unless it is a major fluke. Another case, during tonight's Knicks/Bulls game, Bulls were down by 17, snagged them at +12.5. They're down by 5 at the half - don't know if they will cover but that's good value to me.

The over under may be tricky live betting but you can generally get a sense of how well they're playing and, instead of making an initial bet, go with what you're able to see happening vs just what's on paper prior to the game.

[vasilli07]

Thanks for the POD.

[alpinepetey]

Thanks D2D for the POD and all the other awesome plays.

[Coreos]

Another POD success!

[MonkeyMoney]

Another POD success!

empty netters are awesome!! but remember its a double edged sword

[MonkeyMoney]

My haily mary is looking solid Risked 1$ to win 220$!!

10 Team Parlay

Hockey - NHL (Game) Moneyline
(4) Washington Capitals -190 Apr 11/13@07:05p (win)
Competitor: (3) Carolina Hurricanes

Hockey - NHL (Game) Moneyline
(5) Ottawa Senators +115 Apr 11/13@07:05p (win)
Competitor: (6) Philadelphia Flyers

Hockey - NHL (Game) Moneyline
(7) Montreal Canadiens -140 Apr 11/13@07:35p (up 4-1)
Competitor: (8) Buffalo Sabres

Hockey - NHL (Game) Moneyline
(9) Pittsburgh Penguins -135 Apr 11/13@07:35p (up 5-2)
Competitor: (10) Tampa Bay Lightning

Hockey - NHL (Game) Moneyline
(12) Detroit Red Wings -120 Apr 11/13@07:35p (tied 2-2)
Competitor: (11) San Jose Sharks

Hockey - NHL (Game) Moneyline
(13) St. Louis Blues -110 Apr 11/13@08:05p (up 1-0 going to 3rd)
Competitor: (14) Minnesota Wild

Hockey - NHL (Game) Moneyline
(16) Winnipeg Jets -170 Apr 11/13@08:05p (up 6-2 so win)
Competitor: (15) Florida Panthers

Hockey - NHL (Game) Moneyline
(18) Los Angeles Kings -270 Apr 11/13@10:35p
Competitor: (17) Colorado Avalanche

Hockey - NHL (Game) Total
(1) New York Islanders vs. (2) Boston Bruins (win)
Under 5½ (-155) Apr 11/13@07:05p

Hockey - NHL (Game) Total
(5) Ottawa Senators vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers (win)
Under 5½ (-125) Apr 11/13@07:05p

[Coreos]

Good luck on the parlay man

[fitguy67]

Agree that if you're doing live betting to chase, it may not be the best thing, but it is phenomenal if it is done correctly. If you're able to watch the flow of the game and pick your spots correctly, live betting is where it's at. For example, during last night's Spurs/Denver game, the Spurs were down 20+ pts or something and I was able to snag them at +15. I do not foresee a quality team like the Spurs losing by 15 unless it is a major fluke. Another case, during tonight's Knicks/Bulls game, Bulls were down by 17, snagged them at +12.5. They're down by 5 at the half - don't know if they will cover but that's good value to me.

The over under may be tricky live betting but you can generally get a sense of how well they're playing and, instead of making an initial bet, go with what you're able to see happening vs just what's on paper prior to the game.

_______________

Good points...trick is u gotta decide up front...exactly what result/price u'r lookin' for and USE the ebb and flow of the game to provide nice "entry" to a value position ur stalking...and pledge on your Aunt Martha's grave not to double-back if things don't go according to plan...

'nother example of how to use the facility is if u missed a play u wanted earlier cuz the play got too expensive...u can sometym "sneak into" the position at the price u wanted (or even much cheaper)...again...this is using the "live" facility as an opportunity to get into positions you have already objectively determined to have value...that's the only time i ever use it...as a "second chance" to get into a play that passed me by...but once i've got it...i turn off the damn facility and treat the bet exactly as if i had got it pre-game

with this sort of objective limited-deployment mindset u CAN--if u have tremendous discipline--use it without succumbing to the "slippery slope" that it's convenience and immediacy can easily magnify

[MonkeyMoney]

LOL penetrate.

[Coreos]

D2D killing it in hockey today

[alpinepetey]

LOL penetrate.

Brutal man. Stupid Detroit.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ummmmm

empty netters are awesome!! but remember its a double edged sword

We didn't win with an empty netter.....we were already ahead. The play was Caps -.5 in Regulation....


Nonetheless, GREAT and I mean GGGRRREEEAAATTT day so far. Let's keep it up in our few late games!!

Also, FITHGUY, I am looking forward to responding to your thoughts, but will probably have to do that tomorrow....at the airport waiting for my luggage and then off to see the gf who hasn't seen me in 5 days...


Cheers E1 and GL the rest of the way,

D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

5-0-1 in puck for + $750.....encouraging!

[Smoke]

Donut is that guy

[bald_guy]

5-0-1 in puck for + $750.....encouraging!

I got 8-0-1 so far tonight tailing. I missed the super early morning tennis game that didn't go in our favor. My bad. LOL. 5 more bets to go. Awesome night.

[fitguy67]

Congrats on yet another great day!!!

[MonkeyMoney]

good stuff D2D


now tap it hard for us

[bald_guy]

The San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers game looks more like a hockey game then a baseball game.

[OperatorX]

Beautiful night.