I think I'm a square player. Is that so bad??

DrSlamm · 08-04-06, 03:48 PM

Anyone who isnt betting a significant edge is doomed to lose in the long run..

Santo · 08-04-06, 03:51 PM

There's nothing wrong with it, if you're betting for entertainment, and hope to come out about break even, which is what most people want to do..

Bulldog · 08-04-06, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by DrSlamm

Anyone who isnt betting a significant edge is doomed to lose in the long run..

Whats betting a significant edge???

bigboydan · 08-04-06, 04:12 PM

always betting the obvious is probly one of the best ways to put it.

as santo said above... theres nothing wrong with being a square, if your just doing it for entertainment type purposes.

don't think you will go and make a killing with that type of betting style even if you get hot for a week or two, because it won't happen.

Bulldog · 08-04-06, 04:29 PM

I appreciate the comments so far but the point of me writting this thread was to get a few tips on how I could become a better gambler. Im want to learn from you since I consider myself a begginer.
Saying its ok if its just for fun doesnt help much...

carlos vincente · 08-04-06, 04:40 PM

i agree with bulldog. betting on sports is not easy. there will be a day where all the teams favorite to win will lose, if the game has 2 really bad pitchers and when we bet to go over.. that will be the day the score will be 2-1.

betting on sports is a very risky business. i nearly came to conclusion betting and playing on online casino ie. blackjack is much safer than betting on sportsbook. atleast this way u control ur own money and ur own decisions.

once i bet on a tennis game number 2 seed lost a qualifier, and it was for a big amount. i was thinking this is safe bet and though the return is much, its safe but i ended up losing a big amount.

betting on sports is very risky, and i thought baseball season is the best to bet compared to football. football is worse, very unpredictable (NFL). i am going to stick around for college season and see what i can i do in college football.

koko · 08-05-06, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by Bulldog

I appreciate the comments so far but the point of me writting this thread was to get a few tips on how I could become a better gambler. Im want to learn from you since I consider myself a begginer.
Saying its ok if its just for fun doesnt help much...

Rather than being a better "gambler" you first should work on becoming a better handicapper. Then work on learning how to use your handicapping skills to identify and exploit bad line while not taking on risk your bankroll can't absorb.

operaman · 08-05-06, 02:48 PM

The first thing you should do is adopt the outlook that you will find the very best deal on any bet you are placing.
Shop till ya drop.

If you can't find a good price on a game you are wanting to bet on don't bet.

Its not very fun but this alone might make you a winner.

Don't ever bet on a team you have an emotional comitment too, if you feel there is any chance you could be letting your feelings for a team cloud your judgement.

p.s. the ben franklin quote rocks!!

Santo · 08-05-06, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by koko

Rather than being a better "gambler" you first should work on becoming a better handicapper. Then work on learning how to use your handicapping skills to identify and exploit bad line while not taking on risk your bankroll can't absorb.

Actually I'd advise doing it the other way around personally. You can win decent sums by good betting even if you have no idea on handicapping. If you're a horrendous bettor (line value, teasers/pleasers/parlays etc..), you'll likely lose no matter how well you can handicap.

Read Wong's Sharp Sports betting and Dan P's "Win More, Lose Less" and go from there. Most people who win at this have invested huge amounts of time to learning and research... people aren't going to spoonfeed you, you'll have to do most of the work yourself, then ask specifc questions.

MrX · 08-05-06, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Bulldog

1) I bet mostly favorites, a lot of Boston, NYY and stuff. (specially after the trading deadline)
I usually bet on 2 favorites and 1 dog per day or 3 favs and 1 or 2 dogs.

Contrary to what some may say, betting mostly favorites doesn't necessarily doom you to failure. It's possible to make money betting only favorites. That said, I'm quite confident in saying that if you were to make every good bet possible, you'd find that over 2/3 of your bets were on underdogs.

Originally posted by Bulldog

2) I rarely take +200 or more underdogs, and when I do its for really small plays.

There are some good bets that are > +200. You are correct in general to risk less on larger underdogs. Proper application of the Kelly Criterion for bankroll growth agrees with this statement.

Originally posted by Bulldog

3) Im a streak player... I bet on good teams on losing streaks hoping they will come out of it.

Fine. Sounds like a good theory. I see where you're coming from. You want to bet good teams, and who doesn't? It can be very frustrating to bet money on bad teams (trust me, I've bet a small fortune on every bad team in the book). You're smart enough to realize that the price on good teams is generally too high to be profitable, so you want to pick your spots when the good team is undervalued due to an bad streak.

Okay, so there's logic behind the theory, that's a good start. This is where someone serious about making a fortune would begin some research. The wrong thing to do, in my opinion, is to start betting in the hopes of just observing my results and learning/adjusting on the fly.

The right thing to do is get your hands on 3 or more seasons of stats and lines. Learn a programming language if you don't already know one, or at least learn to use a spreadsheet very very well. Define your theory mathematically. What is a 'good team' and what is a 'losing streak' in mathematical terms? If the results look positive, make any necessary adjustments and test against a couple more past seasons if possible. If the results don't look positive go back to the drawing board and come up with more theories. Repeat.

After all this, you should have a good idea what sort of edge to expect. Study the Kelly Criterion or other mathematically sound theories for managing bet size. You can cost yourself tons of money by underbetting or overbetting your bankroll.

Does this sound like a lot of work? It is. Maybe it's possible to be significantly successful at straight handicapping without this much work, but I have my doubts. The good news is, after all the agonizing legwork, it gets much much easier and more rewarding.

If you don't feel up to or capable of this kind of research, consider getting serious about arbing and/or bonus play. Or just be content with playing around with some good theories for fun and hopefully some profit, but don't expect a ton of success.

pags11 · 08-05-06, 06:49 PM

bulldog,

best thing to do is wager light until you get more experience...keep wagering is the only advice I have for you, you'll start to learn that taking underdogs isn't the worst thing in the world...hang around more of these forums and you'll pick up a lot of tips...

TLD · 08-06-06, 12:29 AM

Bulldog, MrX just gave you some very valuable pointers. My advice would be to reread his post and take it to heart.

Just the kind of helpful post it’s good to see on these forums.

isetcap · 08-06-06, 06:52 PM

Just follow the Ganchalysis.

Arilou · 08-06-06, 08:24 PM

MrX, where would you go to look for historical line data? Is Don Best's archive the place to go, or are there other good sources out there?

MrX · 08-06-06, 10:04 PM

When I began, I got most of mine from both Don Best and Vegas Insider archives. I was suprised that no one I could find was offering historical line data in a database format for sale. I had to write a program to snag all of the html and java files from those sites and then parse those into a database. It was a big pain. Both sites were missing some sizable chunks, but when you put them together, the coverage was almost complete for a few years back. For something so valuable and vital to handicappers, you'd think someone would be selling it. Maybe they are and I just never found them, anyone know?

Bulldog · 08-07-06, 12:03 PM

I appreciate all the input Ive gotten within this thread.
I'll definitely work harder on research...
Thanks again guys...
Bulldog.

crackerjack · 08-07-06, 04:13 PM

My advice, FWIW. These are as much for me as for you...

1) Betting totals can be very frustrating but there is some great value to be found. I think I have had more success betting totals than straight sides. You may discount betting totals for psychological reasons, but you may be missing out on good opportunities. (I think Props can represent some great value as well because you can find some very soft lines but the juice will kill you.)

2) Watch as many games as possible. My best season betting baseball (and it was an awesome season), I was teaching school, had no kids and no wife. I bought the MLB Extra Innings package and took the summer off and watched baseball and bet games. You get to know the teams and their trends, and it really helped.

3) Read a lot, but don't always put stock in what you read. Sometimes I will read something and think "Wow, that's really going to cause such-and-such, I am all over this or that side!" But then I remember that I am not the first one reading it and that the lines have already been adjusted accordingly. I will often go against my first instinct (not sure the rationale) and that has come in at a surprisingly successful rate. (One example is a few years ago a bunch of Air Force Falcons were suspended for the last game of the season against Utah. All the money was coming in on the Utes driving the line way up. But it was in Colorado and the AF players aren't so outstanding that their back ups couldn't do a decent job. So I took AF at +16. Falcons ended up winning that game straight up.) It doesn't always work out but you'd be surprised how information you think is mighty important doesn't even come into play.

4) Money management. My biggest weakness. I can't tell you how many times I've slowly and steadily built a very small bankroll into a large bankroll only to watch it crumble in a day or two because of increasing the size of bets to chase what started as a few small losses. No point beating this dog to death, but I know that if I followed the advice of others on MM, I'd be a lot more successful. Just don't chase losses, no matter how big or small.

5) I think it's okay to bet favorites (last year's NFL season saw the favorite cover at a pretty solid clip), but make sure you are betting them because you really like the team for specific reasons and not just because they are favorites. I think there is a tendency to like a certain team BECAUSE they are the favorites -- it's psychological. (In the exhibition opener I didn't like Oakland or Philly either way until I saw the line, then all the sudden I knew Philly was the better team...) One thing I like to do is to make a pick before looking at the lines and then think how many points I'd be willing to give or how much I'd be willing to pay. Then if it's higher I pass and if it's lower it becomes a play.

6) Know your bankroll and if betting faves, be happy with smaller winnings and be ready to take the bigger hits. Personally, I think it requires a bigger bankroll to bet favorites consistently. You are risking more to win less and losses hurt worse than losses betting the underdogs. Plus, with a bigger bankroll, you can afford to lay the wood when you find those gems. (I found Tiger Woods -1/2 stroke at -200 over Rod Pampling in a first round matchup at last weekend's Buick Open. No way was Woods going to shoot worse than Rod Pampling! But with a small bankroll, it's always tough to lay $200 to win $100 no matter how attractive the offering looks. Tiger beat Pampling by 6 or 7 strokes...)

7) Find someone who also enjoys wagering and is a good handicapper and work together. The time I had someone to bounce different angles off was not coincidentally the time I had my highest winning percentage. If we disagreed on a game, we'd either pass on the game or reduce the units wagered on the game. It's sort of what these forums are for, but when it's in person it's much more effective (for obvious reasons).

Good luck this season

pags11 · 08-08-06, 04:23 AM

that's some great advice crackerjack...good stuff...