Anyone Bet Horses?

[Senator7]

Just wondering if anyone here plays horses. I've always liked horse racing and I'm thinking about starting to bet the ponies. Right now, I only play NFL and NCAA football. I play some baseball, but not much, I'm primairily a football bettor. Are horses profitable if you know what you're doing? As always, any help is appreciated.

Senator 7

[mad]

Hi Senator,
I play the ponies quite a bit. However i live in Australia so i focus primarily on local races, some Asian (Hong Kong Dubai etc) and some major European races as well. I am sure it is much the same in the US, so here is the knowledge i have to offer you.

As with most things you get out what you put in and this depends upon the level of involvment you intend. If you are looking to play all races, all the time i would suggest this would require a full time commitment ie 40+ hours per week, quiting your job kind of thing. However with a decent amount of application, an hour or two each day you can start to develop an understanding of how the racing industry and the races operate. Ultimately it requires a reasonably detailed knowledge of the horses themselves, not only your intended selection but also its opposition. This allows you to plan in your head at least, the likely in-run performance and ultimate outcome based upon your detailed knowldge of the entrants, track, distance, jockey, horse ability, early speed etc. Again as with most things there is an awful lot of rubbish out there in relation to horseracing so you need to have confidence in yourself, your ability and be able to sift through all the crap. This will alow you to be selective in the type of race and horse you decide to wager on. This is important as it allows you to concentrate your efforts and finances to best effect.

Similarly, no matter what you decide to do, you are always going to have losing runs for what seems to be no apparent reason. (All your selections lose by a nose etc.) You need a temperament to be able to handle this. It's a tough gig but is rewarding and profitable for some. The problem is the ups and down, the steep learning curve and the consistent, constant effort it requires. I have heard that 95% of horse racing bettors regularly lose money, so it is by no means an occupation for the faint-hearted. A good idea for a newbie is to try it on paper first to see what i mean in relation to the effort required, the races and horses and the financial effects with a pretend bankroll.

But I hope you decide to give it a go, if you do best of luck.

[Senator7]

Thank you for the great reply! I'm just looking to bet tracks like Churchill Downs, Pimlico, Delmar, and Belmont. Not looking for it to be a full time gig. Any other help is appreciated.

Senator 7

[LVHerbie]

Also keep in mind that horse racing has a huge vig (as high as 20-30% I believe at some tracks - can someone correct or validate this?) ... main reason very few people can handicap at a successful rate long term...

[Senator7]

Also keep in mind that horse racing has a huge vig (as high as 20-30% I believe at some tracks - can someone correct or validate this?) ... main reason very few people can handicap at a successful rate long term...

Is the vig this high at Pinnacle Racebook or CRIS Racebook? I'm not going to bet at the tracks, I want to bet it online.

Senator 7

[mad]

That's a good start. Playing too many races, like too many games is never my preferred method. By the sounds of things you are looking at the better class race meetings, at the better class of track which in turn attract a better class of horse. That is what i do. Here in Oz there is racing non-stop, all day and all night, 7 days a week 365. The problem with this is that most of these races are between horses you never heard of and as such will have a difficult time following. Therefore it is very difficult to say which horses in the race are a real chance of winning, which are no-hopers and more specifically which of them will actually cross the line first. But if you stick to the major metropolitan tracks that you mentioned you're off to a good start.

Now comes the hard part, i am not sure as to your level of knowledge and understanding. So immediately i would suggest education, yes education. Not in the formal classroom situation of course but their are multiple authors out there willing to impart some knowledge for the price of a book. Authors i know of worth reading include:

1.Andrew Beyer - Responsible for the Beyer Speed ratings. Anything by him, i think he has three books published. These figures allow you to identify the top horses in a race based on past performance.
2.James Quinn - again any of his work on thoroughbred handicapping or any other source on thoroughbred handicapping you can find.
3."Value Handicapping - The art of making your own line" by Mark Cramer
4."Bet with the Best - All new strategies from America's leading Handicappers" by Beyer, Brohamer, Crist et al.

These books pretty much cover all you need to know to start off. Believe me their is no end to the amount of stuff out there that you could know but i don't like to make things over-complicated.

At the end of the day playing the ponies is about picking winnners, plain and simple. The best way i know of, learning from personal experience and the experience of others, is to understand what it is you are trying to do. Put simply you are trying to find the horse that will run the distance the quickest. To do that you need to start learning about form and how to read it, horses, fitness, class, weight, distances, jockeys, tracks, condition of tracks, running styles, trainers etc etc etc ad infintem.

The method i use includes purchasing the past form for five or ten races and using this form with a specific horse racing software package i have purchased. What this allows me to do is review all entries at the time of acceptance into the race and clearly see which horses are the most likely winners, ranked in a suggested order. This allows me to highlight two or three of the most likely contenders based on past form. I then investigate further through race replays to see which horse i consider to be superior. Usually it is obvious as i use class as a determing factor. By that i mean the class of race previously contended and won - hopefully but not necessarily as some horse come second etc. Class is the best indication of the level of the horses ability. For example if three horses are in a race, the first a group one winner, the second a listed race winner and the third a lowly race winner i will rank in order of class. The Group One is the top class race available for all races, followed by the Listed and the lowly in this example. Remember a horse can always come down from its natural (ability) class and win but the opposite is not always true. As is often the case not all races entered are won by most horses, even the greats, but what this allows you to do is say "this horse usually runs at group one level and does OK". So considering that todays race is a lesser race, say a listed race, then logic will tell you that this horse should be in with a chance. It will depend on whether the other horses in the race are also group one winners and if the horse is running well (in form as they say) this preparation. One place you can always refer to check your assessment but NOT make your assessment is the betting ring but this is a discussion for another day. The logic being that if your selection is a real chance at winning then it should be within the top four/five in the betting market. I will then watch race replays to seperate close contenders. This requires a little experience and knowledge of what exactly you're watching and looking for. Once i have made my choice i back the selection and hope it wins. Sounds simple doesn't it, well it's not that difficult to do. Once you start to understand what it is exactly you're doing, what to look for and how to examine a race you'll do fine. Getting started and gaining experience is the hard part. After all i've been at it 10 years or so now and i am in no way an expert, but that's part of the fun!

Finally the web is a great source of information. I am going to include some website addresses for you to have a look at. There are millions of them out there but these ones i use myself regularly. They are all aussie based so only limited value to you but they will give you a feeling of what you want/need.

I will also include as attachments several copies of a race meeting assessment to highlight the type of work/things you need to do. Actually they are copyrighted so i'll e-mail them to you instead if you like. Actually an example can be found at the TRB website listed below under the heading "Pace Advantage"

Finally, do NOT under any circumstance pay good money to anyone offering to sell you a sure fire "system" for selecting winners - NOT EVER. Some systems can produce results however not these particular ones and the best ones that do work can either be designed yourself or are free from friends etc. These 150% profit system sellers are scam artists looking to rip you off with systems that do not work. They will try to convince you, show you pretty pictures and statistical tests to prove it but believe me they are not worth the money. Steer clear.

OK have a look at these websites:

https://www.trb.com.au

https://www.propun.com.au

www.forum.ozmium.com.au (aussie horse racing forum i use as well, some Americans post there also)

https://www.virtualformguide.com

I do not know if you'll get a lot out of them but there will be a few reliable articles and info for you there that will help you on your way.

[jjgold]

Pinnacle has a ;ower rebate than Cris

Horse Racing is the toughest game in the world to beat and most get buried, play for recreational use only as it will save you tons of money in the long run and also play only a few tracks each meet and bet only a few races at the track when you do play.

[Senator7]

Just curious, what are the best online racebooks?

Senator 7

[jjgold]

Pinnacle
E-Horse
Carib
VIP
WWST
CRIS