Rookies Bet Higher Amounts On Certain Games

[jjgold]

#1 sign of a Square

[hoopster42]

what about kelly? shouldnt you vary your bet size by how the amount of +EV you have?

[laxdjock]

[Rookie bettor] What is +EV? [/Rookie bettor]

[mmike032]

this is true. my biggest bet of the year was on FLA today
my next biggest bet will be on FLA next week depending ont the line

[jjgold]

When I see guys betting lets say $100 a game and all of a sudden they bet like $400 on a certain game because they love it I chuckle. There is no such thing as one game having a better chance than any other. Every bet has a 50% chance of winning no matter how you look at it.

[InTheHole]

JJ doesn't know what he is talking about. Would you invest the same amount in a company that had higher expectations of profit?

[InTheHole]

When I see guys betting lets say $100 a game and all of a sudden they bet like $400 on a certain game because they love it I chuckle. There is no such thing as one game having a better chance than any other. Every bet has a 50% chance of winning no matter how you look at it.

Are you serious? Not every line is 50/50 especially after it has been moved by action. No wonder why you're always broke.

[mmike032]

When I see guys betting lets say $100 a game and all of a sudden they bet like $400 on a certain game because they love it I chuckle. There is no such thing as one game having a better chance than any other. Every bet has a 50% chance of winning no matter how you look at it.

this is true in time but if you factor in real life scenarios than the square can come out ahead for a period of time. but it will even out if the square continues to bet this way.
JMO, and I wouldnt call myself a sharp by any means.

[SlickFazzer]

When I see guys betting lets say $100 a game and all of a sudden they bet like $400 on a certain game because they love it I chuckle. There is no such thing as one game having a better chance than any other. Every bet has a 50% chance of winning no matter how you look at it.

JJ its called the 4 UNIT Special. Or the 4 STAR in some circles...

[InTheHole]

You guys need a lesson from the experts.

[james4512]

When I see guys betting lets say $100 a game and all of a sudden they bet like $400 on a certain game because they love it I chuckle. There is no such thing as one game having a better chance than any other. Every bet has a 50% chance of winning no matter how you look at it.

r u retarded? so what do you think the best capper alive is only at 50%. have you ever heard of strengths and weaknesses, trends, and weather? apprently not

[Nicky Santoro]

i know exactly what jj is talking about.. it's not what you all are thinking.. he's not talking about the pros who bet games early at -4.5 and the line closes at -6.5.. of course if you know -4.5 is going to move, you are better off betting more on it because your odds of winning that bet is not 50%, but it is close to 58%.. he is not talking about the +ev bettors.. but about the general public bettors..

JJ is talking about your everyday bettors who dont know what they're doing in regards to lines and all that.. he means the patty venditto's of the world.. the young kids or the joe public guys who bet alot of favs, and so on..

[BeatTheJerk]

I did this yesterday on the Bowling Green vs Toledo game ............. In one of the threads I mentioned i bet 2200/2000 on the 2nd half BG -.5 which they ultimately won the half by 11 pts so my wager was granted, but I loved the game and I put a max bet on it because I watched every single play and was intrigued that BG will comeout and win the 2nd half very easily because how they were just dominating the entire 1st half which the score didn't merit because of some stupid mistakes made by BG , but all in all it worked out for me thank god ! , but i understand JJ's observation here .......... I guess i fell into this catagory yesterday to be frank.

[fiveteamer]

Is this thread directed at Iwinyourmoney?

[krk1030]

Are you saying betting say 1-5 units is bad?

[RumpledForeskin]

Guys, I am pretty sure this is just 1 man's general observation....

[fiveteamer]

bet the same amount every game.

gambling is much more enjoyable that way.

betting 7 units on a game is too stressful.

I agree with JJ 100% here.

[SlickFazzer]

Are you saying betting say 1-5 units is bad?

I have found more bad than good comes from this strategy.
If you are a $100 bettor:

Lets say you start off the day 3-0 with your 1 unit plays, you are up $300 on the day and feeling good. That night you have a 3 unit play ($300) and a 5 unit play ($500) going.

These two plays don't go as expected, your team's dominate statistically, but shit luck and back door covers ruin both games.
You lost $800 on these two games, and profited the $300 in the early games: so you are down $500 on the day, despite going 3-2 on the day.

[fiveteamer]

Yes Slicker, that is terrible and we've all been there.

The key is learning and adapting.

[ertl09]

I have found more bad than good comes from this strategy.
If you are a $100 bettor:

Lets say you start off the day 3-0 with your 1 unit plays, you are up $300 on the day and feeling good. That night you have a 3 unit play ($300) and a 5 unit play ($500) going.

These two plays don't go as expected, your team's dominate statistically, but shit luck and back door covers ruin both games.
You lost $800 on these two games, and profited the $300 in the early games: so you are down $500 on the day, despite going 3-2 on the day.

Its a risk I would be willing to take if I really liked the game. On the other hand just for action or a small lean, then yes stick with one unit. If you hit around 55-60% of your plays one unit each, your not going to profit much, but instead if you hit 65% on your larger wagers you will make more money but hitting the same %.

[james4512]

I have found more bad than good comes from this strategy.
If you are a $100 bettor:

Lets say you start off the day 3-0 with your 1 unit plays, you are up $300 on the day and feeling good. That night you have a 3 unit play ($300) and a 5 unit play ($500) going.

These two plays don't go as expected, your team's dominate statistically, but shit luck and back door covers ruin both games.
You lost $800 on these two games, and profited the $300 in the early games: so you are down $500 on the day, despite going 3-2 on the day.

yeah thats a terrible strategy, but i get slightly offended. I bet 5 games today and each game i rated and it came out like this

Florida -15.5 300$
Oklahoma Oklahoma ST OVER 75 300$
NC ST +2 100$
South Carolina +1 100$
Texas Tech -21.5 100$

i didnt just double my bet, i placed them all around 1145am

[Nicky Santoro]

slicker, it works both ways though.. what about when you go 0-3 on your 100's.. then on your 300 and 500, you go 2-0 and you end up winning 500 on the day, while going 2-3 on the day.. not bad, huh?

this is why you have to raise your bets at times..

lets say you want nets +4 and the line is +4, you bet 100 on it..

now lets say the line on the Cavs is +6, and you check your book and see they still have Cavs +8.. it would be silly to bet also 100 on this one.. you now don't have a 50% chance here.. you have close to a 58% chance of winning this one.. wouldn't it be dumb to still bet 100 on this bet?

Your return on the dollar is much higher at 58%, so you should take advantage.. you're a favorite to win this one here.. it's no longer 50-50...

you have to take advantage in these situations..

[pat venditto]

nicky u ****

[laxdjock]

bet the same amount every game.

gambling is much more enjoyable that way.

betting 7 units on a game is too stressful.

Seriously.

I still am prone to do this, and more than average it tends to be a bad bet. Slowly I am learning not to make stupid bets....I still have some left in me, but hopefully a lot less than I use to have stored up.

Statistically I should have more +units, but I have too many big bet losers.

[SlickFazzer]

slicker, it works both ways though.. what about when you go 0-3 on your 100's.. then on your 300 and 500, you go 2-0 and you end up winning 500 on the day, while going 2-3 on the day.. not bad, huh?

this is why you have to raise your bets at times..

lets say you want nets +4 and the line is +4, you bet 100 on it..

now lets say the line on the Cavs is +6, and you check your book and see they still have Cavs +8.. it would be silly to bet also 100 on this one.. you now don't have a 50% chance here.. you have close to a 58% chance of winning this one.. wouldn't it be dumb to still bet 100 on this bet?

Your return on the dollar is much higher at 58%, so you should take advantage.. you're a favorite to win this one here.. it's no longer 50-50...

you have to take advantage in these situations..

Well said Nicky, great info for thought.

[Kingctb27]

I agree. You have a 50% shot at each game. I always use the same amount on each of my bets per day.

[apk2k6]

Bet a certain % of your bankroll. That way if you're winning or losing money, your bet size will reflect this.

[pavyracer]

This is fukking hilarious. A seasoned veteran with more than $3,500 in losses in less than 3 months is giving advice to rookies on what not to do to lose money.

You can't make this shit up boys. Way to go jjgold.

[nosniboR11]

When I see guys betting lets say $100 a game and all of a sudden they bet like $400 on a certain game because they love it I chuckle. There is no such thing as one game having a better chance than any other. Every bet has a 50% chance of winning no matter how you look at it.

lol

[Nicky Santoro]

he was talking about patty venditto.... which i totally agree with him

[SportsLockPicks]

guys, you are all stating different facts about keeping a smart bankroll...thats all it comes down to, i agree to an extent that you shouldn't vary your wagers...but if your limit is $100, that should be your biggest play, while making smaller plays of $75, $50 on other games...but playing the same on every game is not smart unless you like every game the same amount. And like you said, you shouldnt be sweating out a bet before the game even starts...if you are, you know you exceeded your limits.

[frostno98]

Every single week there's always going at least 2-3 lock plays where you can pretty much hammer it. The problem with most of denegeneric gamblers is we are not patient enough to wait several days for that line to show up because it always does.

[pavyracer]

he was talking about patty venditto.... which i totally agree with him

In the House of the Hangman One Does Not Talk of Rope.

[betplom]

Every bet has a 50% chance of winning no matter how you look at it.

Wagering against the Detroit Lions not included.

[jjgold]

There is no such thing as a lock, every game has the same exact chance of winning but most players do not realize it.