Kelly Criterion Question

[pat venditto]

Say I place one 70 using kelly, that bet is pending and my starting capital was $700. What should my capital be for the 2nd bet?

[Justin7]

That's a complex question. A conservative answer is to treat all outstanding bets as losers, and use $630. The optimal amount will have slightly more than that, however.

[Ganchrow]

That's a simple question that can easily be answered using my Generic Kelly Spreadsheet.

You'll need to know the payout odds and edge (or win probability) for each bet.

To give a few simple example:

1. 1^st bet is at +100 with 10% edge
   2^nd bet is at +100 with 10% edge
   Wager $69.26 on bet #2<br>
   
2. 1^st bet is at -110 with 9.09% edge
   2^nd bet is at +500 with 10% edge
   Wager $69.50 on bet #2<br>
   
3. 1^st bet is at +500 with 50% edge
   2^nd bet is at -110 with 9.09% edge
   Wager $67.46 on bet #2<br>

etc.

[SharpAsASkunk]

The optimal amount will have slightly more than that, however.

Could you clarify what you meant by "slightly" please? For a rough calculation could I remove a fixed percentage (~90%) of a pending bet's stake from my bankroll?

[ZetaPsi808]

pattay!!