Predicting Line Moves in Baseball

[TheGambler]

Being new at this whole gambling thing, I have read alot about being able to predict where the line will move to and also about steam plays. With this being my first year of betting on baseball, it seems that the majority of the lines move considerably all the way up until game time. From what I have observed, you can make a lot more money if you just had an idea of where the line might move to.

I know that professionals have certain things they use to help know where the line will probably move to by the next day and I was wondering if any of you guys knew what to look for. First of all, what things do you look for and secondly, is this what a steam play is all about?

I wanted to let everyone know that I just found this website yesterday and I have been on it for about 48 hours straight!!! You guys all seem to be very smart about gambling and I look forward to learning alot from all of you.

I pretty much play at Pinnacle which already has good lines but when you see them move from -150 to -170, a guy sure would have liked to got in on the -150 the night before!!!

Thanks guys

[TheGambler]

well i did my best to practice this over the last couple of days and boy would i have been way off. i looked at all of the opening lines and then based on some kind of baseball knowledge, tried to predict which ones would move and in what direction. ya, i pretty much would have lost a lot of money on juice had i made any actual bets.

[hanco21]

well i did my best to practice this over the last couple of days and boy would i have been way off. i looked at all of the opening lines and then based on some kind of baseball knowledge, tried to predict which ones would move and in what direction. ya, i pretty much would have lost a lot of money on juice had i made any actual bets.

Its tough to predict which way the line is going to go. Hot teams and Hot pitchers tend to get late action. For instance Liriano of Minnesota should get late action tonight. It might hit the mid 190's tonight.

[TheGambler]

I just dropped a couple dimes on Minnesota at 1.552 (-180). I'm going to watch the line very close right up to gametime b/c i think you are correct. it will probably get very close to -190. thanks for the help.

[Donny]

S. Kazmir is very good too, so this might not be the best example.

[Illusion]

Kazmir is +176 at Pinnacle right now and I'm taking a shot with that nice price.

[Donny]

i see you moved the line a bit illusion, now at -179

[onlooker]

i see you moved the line a bit illusion, now at -179

I dont think he has that much to move a line that drastic.

[Tchocky]

I don't think knowing how the moneyline on a game is going to move up until post time is nearly as valuable as knowing who is going to win or lose and what the score is going to be. If you don't know the later, the former doesn't matter. I know a lot of guys wager the moneyline and wait for the late money to come in before placing wagers but that is only an indication of who is going to win or lose.

[DrSlamm]

seems like knowing who will win or lose is a failsafe way to be rich

[ourbet]

I know a lot of guys wager the moneyline and wait for the late money to come in before placing wagers but that is only an indication of who is going to win or lose.

Do you have anymore info/stats on this occurrence by any chance Tchocky? Also please, how "late" are we looking at please when we talk about "late money"?

[Arilou]

Yes, ourbet, except that what it tells you is that the odds and then that's what you're offered. Oops. Line movement is not random, for two reasons: It reflects the truth of the game, and because previous line movement changes what tends to happen later. The best thing would be if we could have line movement data in the past and do statistical analysis on it, but I have not been able to find a reliable source with enough data to run good tests.

As for late money, it's... late. Very late. We're talking last five minutes. There are basically four waves of money: Opening line, Morning line, Lineup line and Late line. You get good information from each.

[ourbet]

I appreciate your advice Arilou; thanks a lot!