Money management: Notre Dame ML (-200) or Notre Dame -5 (-110)

[RMStanley]

Mates, I have watched Notre Dame and USC most every game (huge college football fan - usually stick to SEC wagering though). I simply don't see how USC matches up with Notre Dame as far as fundamentals and coaching. Granted, USC has terrific athletes but Lane Kiffin is notorious for having sloppy teams, crazy ass plays and ingame management (going for 2 for no particular reason, etc).

I think Notre Dame wins this game 7 out of 10 times which is where I find the potential value in laying the -200. I guess my only concern is that with a young QB he could get nervous under the gun (first game ranked #1, bright lights of Los Angeles, etc).


Money question: Would I be better served to risk less (say half of my planned stake) and lay the -5 and that way I'm a bit "protected" from a massive loss? Or is this just a stayaway in total..

[t-wizzle]

If you think they only win 7 out of 10 times then you should not be betting ND ML. If anything you should bet USC ML. If you're only willing to take ND, lay the 4.5 which is what the line is.

[Brutus84]

For some crazy ass reason I think USC wins or loses by 3. But if I were confident as you are and lets say I was going to put $2,000 on the game. I would put like 1400 to win 700 on ML and the rest on -5

[PAULYPOKER]

Always take ATS when betting favorite..................

[wantitall4moi]

Always take ATS when betting favorite..................

not always in NCAA and not always on the road.

Its a toss up.

But you'l get a lot better than -200 before kick off anyway.

[RMStanley]

If you think they only win 7 out of 10 times then you should not be betting ND ML. If anything you should bet USC ML. If you're only willing to take ND, lay the 4.5 which is what the line is.

If I get ML at -200 or better and I think ND wins 7 out of 10 times than there is clearly value in this.

[RMStanley]

not always in NCAA and not always on the road.

Its a toss up.

But you'l get a lot better than -200 before kick off anyway.

I don't agree that it's a "toss up". I feel like the officials/NCAA will want to desperately avoid yet another all-SEC national championship game, and the possibility of an Alabama / Notre Dame title game is just to juicy to pass up. I feel like ND will get the benefit of the doubt on calls.

Before you scoff, remember that NCAA is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. Just a short drive from South Bend. Lots of staff and execs at the NCAA offices are Notre Dame grads or have ties to ND.

[PAULYPOKER]

If I get ML at -200 or better and I think ND wins 7 out of 10 times than there is clearly value in this.

There is only value if it wins,

value in sports betting is just a personal perception.........

[a4u2fear]

If I get ML at -200 or better and I think ND wins 7 out of 10 times than there is clearly value in this.

Only 3.5 % edge with ND winning 7/10 at -200

[Reload]

USC money line is the play

[Cuse0323]

I'd take the ML, but I have no MM skills. I think ND wins and covers, but I'd rather be safe with the ML here.

[PAULYPOKER]

There is only value if it wins,

value in sports betting is just a personal perception.........

I'd take the ML, but I have no MM skills. I think ND wins and covers, but I'd rather be safe with the ML here.

^Exhibit A.......................

[Cuse0323]

Yeah, I don't read much into value and all that. I gamble and I don't see ND losing.

[wantitall4moi]

I don't agree that it's a "toss up". I feel like the officials/NCAA will want to desperately avoid yet another all-SEC national championship game, and the possibility of an Alabama / Notre Dame title game is just to juicy to pass up. I feel like ND will get the benefit of the doubt on calls.

Before you scoff, remember that NCAA is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. Just a short drive from South Bend. Lots of staff and execs at the NCAA offices are Notre Dame grads or have ties to ND.

a toss up in terms of comparative 'value' i.e. -5 -110 versus -200 (on the road)

as it stands its already down to -4.5 and got to -190, that is still fairly close. there are 10 hours till kick off I suspect that before that time ND ML will be had for -180 somewhere, but that will also mean I suspect -3.5 (with vig) spread. So -180 ML somewhere or -3.5 -120 somewhere else.

[crustyme]

with broke landers on usc, nd wont lose so go all in on ml.

[RMStanley]

Cheer, cheer for Old Notre Dame
Wake up the echoes cheering her name,
Send the volley cheer on high,
Shake down the thunder from the sky,
What though the odds be great or small
Old Notre Dame will win over all,
While her loyal sons are marching
Onward to Victory.

[wantitall4moi]

a toss up in terms of comparative 'value' i.e. -5 -110 versus -200 (on the road)

as it stands its already down to -4.5 and got to -190, that is still fairly close. there are 10 hours till kick off I suspect that before that time ND ML will be had for -180 somewhere, but that will also mean I suspect -3.5 (with vig) spread. So -180 ML somewhere or -3.5 -120 somewhere else.

its -180 now and it didnt even have to go to 3.5....

[wantitall4moi]

dipped to 170, and still +4. Lot of big money hammering it both ways as it has gone up and down but -170 was a steal.

[indio]

If you think they only win 7 out of 10 times then you should not be betting ND ML. If anything you should bet USC ML. If you're only willing to take ND, lay the 4.5 which is what the line is.

If your math is this bad, you shouldn't be betting anything.

7/10 = 70%
ML for 70% = -233
betting at -200 for a 70% expected win rate = 5% player edge

I'm not recommending ND at -200 mind you, I think thats a lousy price, but that's besides the point. If the OP thinks they have a 70% chance to win, then -200 is a 5% edge for him. Most professionals are very happy getting a 5% return on their bet volume for the year.

[k13]

If Florida wins, ND wins.
If Florida losses, ND losses.

That's the way I see it.

[trytrytry]

If you think they only win 7 out of 10 times then you should not be betting ND ML. If anything you should bet USC ML. If you're only willing to take ND, lay the 4.5 which is what the line is.

say what?

[indio]

Only 3.5 % edge with ND winning 7/10 at -200

Actually, the edge is 5%. And 5% is a pretty big edge.

I don't personally believe ND would win this game 70% of the time, but if some wagering option offered -200 on a true 70% chance, thats a big player edge.

[wantitall4moi]

Its all moot because it got to -170 anyway, -172 at pinnacle. I wouldnt be surprised to see it dip down again before kick off.

first comment i made in the thread was -200 would be beaten easily and it has been all day.

[smack3179]

Irish -5

[PAULYPOKER]

If Florida wins, ND wins.
If Florida losses, ND losses.

That's the way I see it.

hope this holds true.........

[coop]

If you think they only win 7 out of 10 times then you should not be betting ND ML. If anything you should bet USC ML. If you're only willing to take ND, lay the 4.5 which is what the line is.

uhhhhhh