I think the 7500 level will now be our floor. There could be some sluggish days ahead with late sell offs due to margin calls and tax selling but not enough of that left to drive the markets lower from here imo.
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Just slammed the Up at Intrade on the Dow for tomorrow, let's hope this really is a bottom!Comment -
i hope you are right john.we are living in some scary times.i belive one of the few stocks that is,and will continue to perform well is walmarts.people are buying cheaper goods.good luck to you if you decide to play the market.Comment -
I see us being over 8k and under 7k by the end of the month. Crazy days ahead.
Clarification: First up, then down.Comment -
Johnny we have heard this before, invest your money and you will be living in a boarding home like Rage Wizard now does. Johnny your a good guy and hate to see you blow all your money just so you can have some action. CD's are the way to go or invest in drug cartells where they give you money back like 25%.Comment -
dow futres is up 200 pts. can't drop forever.Comment -
As long as you don't sell there is no effect when you buy at a bottom. The market is like a rubber band. The more you pull it the faster it will go up when the shorts are squeezed.Comment -
if company earnings are being dramatically impacted you dont know what the fundamentals are. you dont know p/e ratios or yields, if any at all. so you cannot call a bottom.Comment -
bottom is soon but not nowComment -
I'm tired of hearing about the bottom. Its been the same old crap on CNBC for the past 6 months.
I JUst keep putting money in the markets and lets talk in 10 years....Comment -
If you can buy within 10% of a major market bottom you could make some very handsome gains. 10% from here is about 6800. Thats really cheap and I dont think we will see it. If an ole boy has some cash he may want to plop half in now and nibble the other half down to that level.Comment -
It is impossible to pick market bottoms. I respect your opinion John, but you must consider two things:
We broke a key technical point on the downside yesterday. We also are in uncharted territory with the lifting of the uptick rule back in 07'. From a traders standpoint the market direction the easiest to pick from is the downside with this current market sentiment and this no uptick rule. The shorts can whip and drive this market wherever they want to and there will still be buying for them to cash out as main street's 401K plans keep buying in scheduled lots required by law. Gonna be a little bumpy until someone actually admits the uptick rule should be back in full force. But you know goverment, they would rather continue on the wrong path instead of admitting they made a mistake.
My two centsComment -
the market internals are almost as bad as great depression
That is scaryComment -
...guys im looking at a bottom of around 6000
hate to say it but it will happen , put your money in gold
much safer playComment -
No, not the bottom yet, a lot more to come, believe me or not but this is what i do for a living and we a far away from the bottom. Just wait till the new policies of Obama, that will bring it down much further. Markets react to future events and thats exactly what is going on. Come this time next year, mark my words, gas back to 4-5$ gas and a market that is struggling to stay around the 5000 pt mark. Nasdaq even worse.Comment -
not very wellOriginally posted by nosniboR11Comment -
im confused durito, u talking about me not doing a good job, again you have no clue, you could not even step into my office much less have any clue what is really going on, but good luckOriginally posted by duritoComment -
CDs and bonds arent safe either. Guy that works for me has lost 11K in the past few months. All he invested in was CDs, and bonds.Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
I'm waiting 4-6 months, by then things will be different, not that they'll be great, but I think we'll have a better view of what direction we're going.Comment -
7500 is a good bottom. Loading up the wheel barrow again today.Comment -
i heard when RageW checked in to the boarding house the first thing they did was put down his catOriginally posted by jjgold
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A more conservative way to play this is to buy some of the beat up mid quality bond funds. Some of those holding A- and B+ bonds are yielding 15%. That wont last and the 15% will hold bar a collapse.Comment -
My point was proven the last hour of trading on Friday. All the short covering came like it usually does on Friday. Most of these guys want to be risk neutral over the weekend. Heard a great quote from an unknown yesterday. " Maybe Paulson should start taking the weekends off." Laughed my ass off for the whole day.
GL traders. I smell blood in the water. Let's go kill something!Comment -
Say goodbye to 7500. The new era of prosperity for stocks has started. I'm heavily invested in 7500 right now. I will sell next fall at 12000 or better.Comment -
I roughly agree with John. December 1st is my date, as mentioned yesterday in another market thread. Should be good for a week, maybe longer. After the recent onslaught, profit taking is likely to take the wind out of the sails of the first trends back up. As long as that is the case the negative trends will be stronger than the positive. One problem is that people no longer have money to invest. So the recovery will be slow and bumpy.
I do see the crisis in a positive light, however. In order to move into the new millennium we need to get rid of the old ways that no longer work. Once the smoke clears, some years from now, we will have a far more streamlined system, worthy of a new world. I'm heavily invested in the technologies of that world, including solar. And I'm taking advantage of the fact that the Chinese government is totally committed to the green revolution. China will emerge as a major winner, because they've been looking forward while the US has been looking backwards for the past eight years.
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SBR John is right, there will be another rally, but it will fall apart like the others and we will see the market retrace itself and go even lower. 7200 is a major level of support but I think that we go even lower. Until the housing mortgages get writen off of the banks books, we will see this type of market and the market will continue to go lower. However, let me be clear since some of you obviously don't understand how the market works. The market will rally and may even get up to the 50 day moving average, and it may take a day, or even a month, but when the market rallies big hedge funds will continue to deleverage themselves and this will cause the rally to fall apart and go back down below the 7500 level. Then we will have another rally, and the same thing will happen and the market will go even lower than it did before making a series of lower lows. I have been riding the wave up and down making money in BOTH directions for the last couple of months. So when you see the market rally 500 like it did yesterday, you can rest assured that Rage made money, and when the market moves down 500, you can also rest assured that Rage made money. This market has been more predictable than ever lately and that is just great. I think that we will see the market slowly stabilize like a 1st order step function derivative graph so as time goes on the wild swings will get smaller and smaller.Comment -
When does this thing finally bottom then? I say after lower than expected holiday retail sales post.Comment -
if earnings start coming back ok, market will snap back so fast you wont know what happened.
but will they?Comment -
There are retail stores out there that are hanging on for dear life this Christmas. When sales disappoint in December, those stores will be folding like a lawn chair in February-March. Plus in January, you will be getting all of the bad unemployment numbers and bad financial reports from 4Q2008. I do not believe we will hit a bottom until them, probably around 6500. If you go and buy now, the upside is definitely worth the risk, if you are in it for the longer (3-5 year) haul.Comment -
One thing people don't understand about the market is that the bad holiday retail season is already factored in the current stock market. Any good news, even just rumors, makes the market squeeze shorts pretty quickly. If you want to make money you have to buy low and sell high. This low of 7500 is unheard of for the last 5-8 years.Comment -
dead cat bounceComment -
Trying to pick market tops and bottoms are the squarest plays of all. The successful traders do not call where the market is going to go. They follow it. That is "Trading 101".Comment -
Sounds like semantics.Originally posted by Data
The successful sports bettors do not gamble, they "invest". Advantage betting 101.Comment -
Data speaks wisely as usual.Originally posted by Data
The trend is your friend. More people have gone broke trying to pick tops and bottoms. And more people have made profits from riding the "meat" in the middle of these moves.Comment -
Another tid bit of info is not to worry about where the market is going but to have a plan for when it gets there.Comment
