SBR Poker - Psychology behind "the rig"?

[konck]

Could there be something bigger than SBR Poker targeting liberals, creating action, and helping newbs win?

People often babble about "variance", but what exactly does it mean? Poker variance is the difference between your short term results and long term expectations.

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

Here is a link to a poker variance calculator. Let's take a typical winning SBR Poker player. We'll give him a win rate of 4bb/100. That means playing 1/2 NL a player can expect to win 4 big blinds per 100 hands, or $8. That's actually a solid win rate. Let's say you play often enough to log 1000 hands per week, so you put in roughly 4000 hands per month. (That's probably stretching it here).



As you can see, there's quite a bit of fluctuation even for a winning player.

Do one for a break even player at 0bb/100 and it's much, much worse.



So the better you are, the less variance you will see. The closer you are to being a break even player, the more variance you'll see. Also the worse you are, the less variance you'll see (You'll consistantly lose). So why does it seem like there are so many bad beats on SBR Poker? There isn't...it's all in your head.

But who are we kidding. It's rigged.

Nice waste of space SBR lets win who they want or need to win ....When they wanted Deeme rto win he won When they wanted Hockey to win he won. When they wanted Carseller to win .....well ummmm there are exceptions but you get my drift.

[Triple_D_Bet]

lol k13...I have to admit, I always enjoy having you at the table...mediocre play, but first-rate selective bitching! Wish I could still play at stars, players like yourself ranting was often the sole pick-me-up during a long day of grinding.

Nice waste of space SBR lets win who they want or need to win ....When they wanted Deeme rto win he won When they wanted Hockey to win he won. When they wanted Carseller to win .....well ummmm there are exceptions but you get my drift.

Translation: "Those facts are nice, but completely useless in the face of my ignorance. Somehow that means I win!"

[daneblazer]

I'm not big on having a stop loss, but I'm probably going to quit playing short of losing 50 buys and a million hands in a row

[Triple_D_Bet]

Off course if you point this out to the poker stat gurus they will point out that you have to play 3 million hands to analyze stats. Sure someone give me $1 million dollars of their money and I will happily play 3 million hands to prove them they are wrong.

When you're doing it right, you usually don't run out of money

[pavyracer]

When you're doing it right, you usually don't run out of money

And when the online gambling website operator doesn't want you to win you run out of money because you keep thinking everything is randomly dealt and you stick to your strategy which doesn't work

[BeerDog99]

When you're doing it right, you usually don't run out of money

Dam, that is my issue!!!

[Triple_D_Bet]

And when the online gambling website operator doesn't want you to win you run out of money because you keep thinking everything is randomly dealt and you stick to your strategy which doesn't work

Well...given that these online sites seem to operate within normal stastical boundaries as quantifiable by any sort of actual math, and that the only "proof" behind allegations of "rigging" are the same hunches that lead someone to believe they've played 1 million hands of SBR poker in under a year, I'm sure you'll forgive us rational folk for not buying into the conspiracy without some kind of actual proof.

The few times anything has been found crooked with online sites, it's always been because someone analyzed adequate sample sizes and realized something was wrong. None of those stories started with "OMG I've played 4 days on pokerstars and I'm down 50 buyins, so I knew something was up!" or "I think the system is rigged and that I break even because I can counter the rig (not because I'm a mediocre player barely breaking even in an overlay-laden environment), trust my gut feeling on this guys!!1!" T

his thread and others are overflowing with actual facts about what would be required to accurately see a rig. Part of being a good gambler (poker or any other activity where chance is involved) is being able to apply to know that math exists despite your whacked out gut feeling. Most people can't do it consistently, but it's only a chosen few who not only won't do it but choose to remain ignorant.

[pavyracer]

Well...given that these online sites seem to operate within normal stastical boundaries as quantifiable by any sort of actual math, and that the only "proof" behind allegations of "rigging" are the same hunches that lead someone to believe they've played 1 million hands of SBR poker in under a year, I'm sure you'll forgive us rational folk for not buying into the conspiracy without some kind of actual proof.

The few times anything has been found crooked with online sites, it's always been because someone analyzed adequate sample sizes and realized something was wrong. None of those stories started with "OMG I've played 4 days on pokerstars and I'm down 50 buyins, so I knew something was up!" or "I think the system is rigged and that I break even because I can counter the rig (not because I'm a mediocre player barely breaking even in an overlay-laden environment), trust my gut feeling on this guys!!1!" T

his thread and others are overflowing with actual facts about what would be required to accurately see a rig. Part of being a good gambler (poker or any other activity where chance is involved) is being able to apply to know that math exists despite your whacked out gut feeling. Most people can't do it consistently, but it's only a chosen few who not only won't do it but choose to remain ignorant.

Start by reading this article first. Cheating is a way of life in online poker.

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2008/05/ultimate-bet-issues-statement-unfair-play.htm

[ronzer]

sbr lets me win because i give most of it back in the casino

[Smoke]

Its only rigged when you lose

[Triple_D_Bet]

Start by reading this article first. Cheating is a way of life in online poker.

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2008/0...nfair-play.htm

I'm well aware of this incident...are YOU aware of how they discovered the issue to begin with? Here's a hint: it want someone bitching about bad beats. Another hint: reread my post.

[pavyracer]

I'm well aware of this incident...are YOU aware of how they discovered the issue to begin with? Here's a hint: it want someone bitching about bad beats. Another hint: reread my post.

Who said anything about bad beats? My argument the whole time is that the software can be programmed to favor certain players at certain times in the game therefore making statistical distribution of cards irrelevant.

[RubberKettle]

[Triple_D_Bet]

Who said anything about bad beats? My argument the whole time is that the software can be programmed to favor certain players at certain times in the game therefore making statistical distribution of cards irrelevant.

No, your argument the whole time hasn't been that it CAN be rigged (which nobody here is disputing)...you've been arguing that it IS rigged (for which the lack of proof is overwhelming), offering up nothing but your anecdotes about bad beats you've seen in your slightly-less-than-one-million hands on SBR.

Also, have you read up on the UB incident even the tiniest bit? If you had, you'd realize it had nothing to do with an abnormal distribution of cards, and everything to do with the players in question being able to see others' hole cards. Hell, it's even explicitly mentioned in the article you linked...so how exactly does this prove even your new argument??

[k13]

A million more bad beats in a row.

This one is a typical and great.

KK vs A3

Flop xKx

Obviously no chance still....

[k13]

JJ vs QJ, is there any chance a Q is not coming on the flop....

Down a 1000 BI's in less than a week...

Betting on underdog would make a trillionaire.

[k13]

Next hand, This is unreal. AKs (clubs) vs J10o vs J10o

2 clubs on the board and a king.

Still lose.

Think about it.

Beyond a fucken joke.

[daneblazer]

on the bright side, losing a million hands in a row and being down 1000 buys isn't that bad Plus you'll roll over some of that bonus soon.

[Triple_D_Bet]

on the bright side, losing a million hands in a row and being down 1000 buys isn't that bad Plus you'll roll over some of that bonus soon.

I think I finally figured it out dane...when k13 and pavy say they've played 1000000 hands and lost 1000 buyins, I think they're talking in binary...that would be about 64 hands and 8 buyins, which is much more believable and perhaps even expected

[k13]

Next KK vs AJ
Next Ak vs Q7 and Kxx flop

If you add the percentages and multiply them, you get 1 in a 1000000000000

This is everyday odds.

[pavyracer]

Triple bets says is not rigged. He played 5 billion hands last year and 5% chance bad beats happen every night. You just need to play at least 4 billion hands every year to know what he is talking about.

[Triple_D_Bet]

Triple bets says is not rigged. He played 5 billion hands last year and 5% chance bad beats happen every night. You just need to play at least 4 billion hands every year to know what he is talking about.

For someone who claims to be an engineer, you sure aren't very good at copying numbers or even basic math it seems. Perhaps this too is something you're mistaken about?

[k13]

Lets start the morning with continues magic

QQ < K4o
AJs < A4o

Just as I type another beautiful gutshot hit on me.

I should be able to lose 99345 out of 100000 hands being a favorite.

[Triple_D_Bet]

Lets start the morning with continues magic

QQ < K4o
AJs < A4o

Just as I type another beautiful gutshot hit on me.

I should be able to lose 99345 out of 100000 hands being a favorite.

"I'm too dense to read and understand simple concepts, but I don't understand how I lose at poker"

[daneblazer]

A million hands

I love guys who say they've played a million hands live.

You would have to play in between 5 and 6 years non stop to play a million hands.

You would have to play 8 hours a day, every day, for 15 or 16 straight years before you hit a million. 8 hours. Every day. No Christmas break. No holidays. No road trips. No breaks. Playing 8 hours every day for 15 straight years.

Someone like Doyle might have a million hands, but there aren't many others.

If you 4 table online for 4 hours a day, it's going to take you 2 1/2 - 3 years to reach a million. 4 tables, 4 hours, every day.

SBR only has like 3 million hands dealt total right? Yet someone here says they have a million. Alrighty

[pavyracer]

I am on my way to playing 5 billion hands. When I finish I will publish a best seller on how to avoid bad beats.

[k13]

Start my BS rollover from the World tourney.

A10, flop QKJ rainbow,

I lose.

[k13]

I'll lose my 1500 rollover in 10 mins.

[Triple_D_Bet]

A million hands

I love guys who say they've played a million hands live.

You would have to play in between 5 and 6 years non stop to play a million hands.

You would have to play 8 hours a day, every day, for 15 or 16 straight years before you hit a million. 8 hours. Every day. No Christmas break. No holidays. No road trips. No breaks. Playing 8 hours every day for 15 straight years.

Someone like Doyle might have a million hands, but there aren't many others.

If you 4 table online for 4 hours a day, it's going to take you 2 1/2 - 3 years to reach a million. 4 tables, 4 hours, every day.

SBR only has like 3 million hands dealt total right? Yet someone here says they have a million. Alrighty

Anyone can make a mistake; what's interesting is the way these guys deal with making a mistake. k13 seems to just pretend like the conversation is entirely one-way and he hasn't seen anyone else's feedback (maybe he hasn't?) and continuing to spew the same crap. pavy responds to his crazy claims being challenged with facts by going silent, then coming back a short while later spewing the same crap...although lately he seems to be pretending that if he exagerates the (legitimate) claims made by others, he can somehow put his arguments on equal footing. Of the three stages of responding, the silence is by far the best one.

In the end it's what most successful poker players have known for a while: the bad players aren't incapable of learning, they're just not mature enough to admit when they're wrong and learn. Good thing too, otherwise it would just be all sharks out there and we'd never get to have any fun

[k13]

Lets start the morning with the usual...

JJ < K10o

oh btw, I never get "lucky", If I'm behind I lose 99% of the time.

[GUMMO77]

Anyone can make a mistake; what's interesting is the way these guys deal with making a mistake. k13 seems to just pretend like the conversation is entirely one-way and he hasn't seen anyone else's feedback (maybe he hasn't?) and continuing to spew the same crap.

Lets start the morning with the usual...

JJ < K10o

oh btw, I never get "lucky", If I'm behind I lose 99% of the time.

[k13]

I mean seriously...

AK vs A3, I already know I lost.....

Flop AKx, yeah I should be excited right....

Nope, same ending as always.

SBR is childs play when it comes to bad beats...

Good thing I have 3000 BI's, 1700 down already....

[k13]

JJ vs J8, lose again, how do you like my big pair winning percentage, might be 7%

A10 vs Q9, on a x10x flop, bubbled on this one nice.

[Triple_D_Bet]

Lets start the morning with the usual...

JJ < K10o

oh btw, I never get "lucky", If I'm behind I lose 99% of the time.

With such terrible listening skills, it's no surprise you never get lucky. I'd say you could buy a hooker with some poker winnings, but since you seem even worse at that, looks like it's just you and the hand getting "bad beat"

[k13]

Fire it up today, first big hand, lose another 99%'er.

Sucked even more since it was a $215 buy-in I sattelitted to.