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It does mean something, theoretically if he could pick winners as well as someone who gets worse lines, he would win more frequently, but if he only picks loser, then his line doesn't matter. BTCL is a 2-3% swing max, so if you beat it but only pick winners 40% of the time, you are still SOL.Comment -
if yopu can pick winners then you dont have to worry about the line, THATS the point. The line comes into play as you said 2-3% of the time. So if you know what youre doing youre going to avoid a lot of those times anayway because theyre going to be around key numbers, so that leaves 1-1.5% of the time a game happens to land on or around a number that moved, again with minimal amount of line shopping or ability to get a line that isnt the absolute worst you once again reduce the amount the line matters.
sure to some mush who couldnt pick his ass with both hands it will maybe make them a 50-52% capper because theyre going to be 48%-50% anyway because they dont have a clue or are following people.
I have put up close to 100 opinions on the forum of those one was a game where the line mattered, and I am not even avoiding those suspect lines, I am putting up a ton of those 3 point games in the NFL, some that opened a pk and move to 2.5 and 3. How many have landed close? How about zero.
The better you are at recognizing winners the less the line matters. I think people dont understand that because they simply cant pick winners in the first place.Comment -
I agree with 98% of your post. The only thing is that 2% is a decent amount of money. I deposited $600 and have wagered (risk amount or to win amount, whichever is lower) over $80,000, 2% of that is $1,600, and I would love to have that extra money to my name. I am still up big, but could be bigger if I had gotten the best lines.Comment -
yeah getting the BEST line is obviously going to be a difference it has to be its like comparing how long it takes you to walk in a straight line compared to walking at different angles, but just like walking in a straight line you cant always get the best line, NO ONE does.
1600 is basically the price of doing business, in the grand scheme if youre playing at offshore books and posting up the fees will be more than 1600 bucks if youre able to bet any sort of money and collect.
Like I said people can track their personal plays in several ways, versus the WORST, that gives them a general idea of how their opinion rates, if they can win against the worst number then they can win against any number. Then obviously what number you got, which you already know, and then against the numbers (that were better than what they got) that were available for an extended period of time, and then against the absolute best number you could find regardless.
If you cant win against any of those find another hobby.Comment -
you idiots do know there are 2 sides to getting the best line and they usually split each game.
Case in point last week Northwestern +12 Michigan -7.5Comment -
i posted em, they can look them up if they want, I put up the sides and middles for the NFL, NBA, NCAA football teams and totals awhile ago.
NCAA hoops is harder because limits on totals are so stupid you cant garner any meaningful data from it, but the moves used to make middling a certain move on the blind profitable, but not anymore, and not at any sort of limits orth bothering with.Comment -
wanti might be the new best poster on this siteComment -
This thread really brings out the clueless fuks...Comment -
Tulsa -3 earlier this week, closed at -1/-1.5. Horrible beat for anyone that was on them at the crappy number.
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You can get the "best line" every time betting LIVE. Will you win long-term?
Whatever "best line" you got, you can always get a better one LIVE, if you don't then you don't play that game.
Anyone have any insight at the results of this?
I'll give example later.Comment -
It would appear that the entire point of this thread is that you allegedly beat the line on some supposed plays you made and needed to tell someone you were feeling pretty damn good about it.
There would be as much to be gained from reading a thread about scratching your fukkin nutsack when it itches. That feels pretty good too.
I am quite happy for you that you beat the line on your alleged plays. Your need to self fellate on this forum is better satisfied elsewhere.Comment -
If the thread had been titled " a simple discussion on beating the closing line" perhaps it would hold a bit a value. Wanty and others have made some good points here. Some of your discourse would have been of value in dialectic argument on the topic.
Beating the closing line has nothing to offer in the way of value until the games are decided. You did not cite one real example of you beating anything but your bony fukkin ribs, impressed with your alleged ability to beat a line. Started the thread with your own dick down your throat and ended by calling the rest of the community who do not buy into your theorem "lazy fukkers".
My $.02 says you are a two bit attention whore who wouldn't admit there may exist a counter to your own unproven point and that you are probably as incapable of posting winning plays on a regular basis as those you ridicule.Comment -
that was just luck, nothing to do with the number, Tulsa totally dominated that game but had 2 turnovers how they dont cover any number is a frigging mystery. Complete and utter domination in every facet of the game but the score.Comment
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