Methodologies for Betting on Prizefighting

[JOe K>]

There are different odds and bets for Prizefighting than other sports. Essentially, it's like betting the moneyline every time because there are no point spreads to "even the odds"

Are there any good strategies for money management and betting styles for prize fighting (MMA/Boxing, mainly MMA)? Perhaps parlays are better for prizefight betting because so many bouts will be in the -300 to -600 range?

Or do standard betting best practices apply (whatever those may be )?

Thanks,
JOe K.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Unless it is a Klitschko, bet against white guy in boxing and you will be way ahead.

[JOe K>]

Unless it is a Klitschko, bet against white guy in boxing and you will be way ahead.

Doesn't apply to MMA nor prizefighting money management.

[BIGDAY]

I use parlays in MMA for props. There are certain fighters that will not win a certain way. Find some value with parlaying these types of props.

Otherwise I try to look for underdogs that at least have one advatage and that have a history of sticking to a good gameplan.

Books still are able to middle themselves. Take that into effect when there is a popular fighter where money pours in on his fame alone. I've made plenty going against Chuck Liddell on his way out. Fading popular fighters on their decline is a huge advantage.

As far as money management, the farther the line seems off to me the more I wager.
Best of luck.

[BIGDAY]

Jon Fitch was my last underdog wager. Erick Silva was getting a ton more action even though the fight in my opinion should have had Fitch favored. People HATE Fitch's style and people wager with their emotions quite often.

[gabe]

I use parlays in MMA for props. There are certain fighters that will not win a certain way. Find some value with parlaying these types of props.

Otherwise I try to look for underdogs that at least have one advatage and that have a history of sticking to a good gameplan.

Books still are able to middle themselves. Take that into effect when there is a popular fighter where money pours in on his fame alone. I've made plenty going against Chuck Liddell on his way out. Fading popular fighters on their decline is a huge advantage.

As far as money management, the farther the line seems off to me the more I wager.
Best of luck.

There is no such thing. Guys you never expect to submit anyone go ahead and get a RNC... or guy without KO power gets a lucky KO. Doesn't happen too often, but often enough to make me not risk the juice.

[Vaughany]

ha I didnt think Pyle would KO Neer! That was tragic

[gabe]

ha I didnt think Pyle would KO Neer! That was tragic

Yeah, and wouldn't EVER guess Justin Edwards would submit Neer, either, ESPECIALLY by guillotine! ha-- part of me feels Neer threw the fight

[JOe K>]

Back to the strategy. When do you parlay? How many points do you bet per fight and per card? Do you bet -500 guys straight up?

[MD]

There is no such thing. Guys you never expect to submit anyone go ahead and get a RNC... or guy without KO power gets a lucky KO. Doesn't happen too often, but often enough to make me not risk the juice.

Took Cerrone by sub or decision at -170, rather than the -310 line straight-up. Considered Cerrone a lock. My penetrating face.

[MD]

OP, you should probably read Jesus Christ's thread from the beginning. He's generally considered the most reputable capper on this board, and his strategy is really solid. Bets almost exclusively underdogs, almost never lays heavy juice.

Solid piece of advice that everyone eventually has to learn, but no one wants to listen to: you're not in a hurry to place bets. You never are. If you're not 100% sure about the value of a bet, don't make it. You can go through an entire card without betting on a single fight. It's what I call the "just f-cking fold" strategy in poker.

[BIGDAY]

I also like title fights to see the start of rd 2.

[PunisherIND]

There is no such thing. Guys you never expect to submit anyone go ahead and get a RNC... or guy without KO power gets a lucky KO. Doesn't happen too often, but often enough to make me not risk the juice.

win or lose, lavar johnson will NEVER see a judges decision. EVER.

[Vaughany]

ha yeah there are different extremes. Lavar Johnson is a good example...chances of him subbing or winning a decision against somebody like Schaub are so low that a -2500 prop would probably be reasonable! Same with something like Paul Daley subbing Koscheck, or JDS subbing Mir or something off the top of my head. POint is I get what brother Bigday is saying

[JoshB]

Unless it is a Klitschko, bet against white guy in boxing and you will be way ahead.

lol junior witter(black guy) just got beat by frankie gavan(white guy) last night.

[Vaughany]

On subject of Prizefighter Craig McEwan should be winning it as he has big experience advantage, especially against better opposition. Peter Vaughan as well as having same surname as me also happens to live about 5 minutes away from me. He's only just fully recovered from a broken right wrist that happened in July. With the format of Prizefighter I'd be concerned that he re-injures it in first fight, especially as he's going up against a tough bruiser in Carruthers. Carruthers has good experience and has given good account of himself against Eubank and O'Kane (fighting on short notice) so Im not sure if he should be 18/1 to win as he is on betfred. Larry Ekundayo is getting a lot of hype due to coaches hyping him up...apparently he's a beast in the gym. But he only has 2 pro fights as far as im aware. Anyway, Prizefighter is tricky due to it's format and the mixture of experience levels, you also get guys who are more knockout artists and they sometimes end up getting out pointed due to the short period of the fight even though they are probably actually the better boxer or at least the favourite (this happened when Tor Hamer beat favourite Kevin Johnson in the final of HW tournament back in June). There is also a new £2000 bonus for KO's so will be interesting to see if they are more aggressive. I expect likes of Ekundayo and Valentine will be really looking for the bonuses.

The last Prizefighter was won by a 10-1 outsider in Flannigan. Tor Hamer was 5/1 to 6/1 range to win the HW tournament before that. O'Kane was the 11/8 to 6/4 favourite to win the Middleweight tournament back in May when he won. Adil Anwar was 11/4 favourite to win when he won, I think Choi was favourite when he won.

[kripsak]

Do your homework on MMA fights, watch their most recent fights & gauge how well they will progress on their skills compared to the other fighter. This strategy has helped me with laying cash on a dog, or loading up on a favorite before the public catches on and moves the line.

Also, keep track of injuries/sickness during their training camp will keep you ahead.

Oh yeah, the most important tip I can give you, believing in MMA Math is like believing in the boogie man

[Duff85]

There are different odds and bets for Prizefighting than other sports. Essentially, it's like betting the moneyline every time because there are no point spreads to "even the odds"

Are there any good strategies for money management and betting styles for prize fighting (MMA/Boxing, mainly MMA)? Perhaps parlays are better for prizefight betting because so many bouts will be in the -300 to -600 range?

Or do standard betting best practices apply (whatever those may be )?

Thanks,
JOe K.

The same strategy I apply to betting every sport. Price the market, find odds that are better than that price, bet. Win/lose, rinse, repeat.

[v1y]

Methodology: Pick winners. Rinse. Repeat.

[Vaughany]

Got it wrong V1y...I think you'll find that it is "winnerz"

[MD]

Always remember: You don't pay the juice if you win.

[darkhat]

whoever spent more time in prison

or has more rape charges

[JOe K>]

Do your homework on MMA fights, watch their most recent fights & gauge how well they will progress on their skills compared to the other fighter. This strategy has helped me with laying cash on a dog, or loading up on a favorite before the public catches on and moves the line.

Also, keep track of injuries/sickness during their training camp will keep you ahead.

Oh yeah, the most important tip I can give you, believing in MMA Math is like believing in the boogie man

Could you define "MMA Math"?

[KushMoney]

Could you define "MMA Math"?

FighterA Defeats FighterB... then FighterB Defeats FighterC

therefore

FighterA will Defeat FighterC

That is MMAth

What happens is FighterA will come in as a favorite against Fighter C, public against goes on Fighter A. Fighter C wins.

[Dirty Sanchez]

I always try to bet on the guy that's going to win

[v1y]

Always remember: You don't pay the juice if you win.

Truly greater words have never been spoken.

[feijao]

The same strategy I apply to betting every sport. Price the market, find odds that are better than that price, bet. Win/lose, rinse, repeat.

###

[Fragoel2]

Interesting question in the OP. There are a some things you can do, I only know a few and hopefully I'll learn more as my experience grows.

As someone already said, hype is something you should look for. Sometimes it's just hype and the lines are way off: Erick Silva was already brought up as an example. Mike Richman in the last Bellator is another: he had two quick KO wins in his last two fights. And then was rated at -370 against the friggin' Muay Thay World champion...

I set myself a some rules and I stick to it. I never bet on a fight where I don't know well enough one of the two contestant. Happens a lot with young prospects and smaller shows. You shouldn't trust what you read on the internet (included this forum), you should only trust yourself, and if you've never seen one of the two fighters, you can't really judge the fight. You might be passing some opportunities this way but you will also avoid a lot of disasters (Rich Clementi says hi!).

I never bet on fighters who have a glass chin or have proven unreliable in the past. Guys like Andrey Arlovski, Paul Daely, Mariusz Zaromskis and such... The risk is just too much and these fighters have failed a lot of opportunities in the past.

Last, I'm doing the following to evaluate how good my prediction are and to have a guideline on which fights I should bet on...
1) Write down your predictions and keep track of them.
2) Once you have a decent sample size, you can get a rate for how many fights you capped right.
3) Given that rate, you can calculate an estimate of how much the lines that you bet on must be in order to break even on the long run.

W% * To Win - L% * Stake = 0

To Win = (L% * Stake)/ W%

Suppose we use always the same unit size, we can assume Stake = 1

To Win = L% / W%

Suppose I cap right 70% of the fights.

To Win = 0,3 / 0,7 = 0,43

So I should only take fights were the line is 1,43 or more ( or -232.56 for you penetrating americans!).

This is, again, a ROUGH ESTIMATE. The sample size is probably shit and we made a lot of assumptions. Lastly, I do not want to break even, I want a profit. Therefore, I have to take better lines, let's say I have to aim for 1,65 or better. This is of course just a guideline and should not substitute your guts, but you might want to shy away from that 1,38 line you're not so sure about.

[kripsak]

FighterA Defeats FighterB... then FighterB Defeats FighterC

therefore

FighterA will Defeat FighterC

That is MMAth

What happens is FighterA will come in as a favorite against Fighter C, public against goes on Fighter A. Fighter C wins.

Pretty much sums it right there, it's like basing your pick solely on their MMA record. You have to do more legwork than looking at their record.

Watch their past fights, see how they have progressed. Watch interviews leading up to their fight to see if they seem they are in fight shape, or if they might have a cold which could cause them to gas later in the fight. Also, see if they changed camps to get the necessary training they need.

[v1y]

MMAth works, people just don't know how to use it.

If A outstrikes B and B outstrikes C, it is a fair assumption A will outstrike C.

It all depends on what you think the deciding factor will be.