question for some of you pro gamblers

AGENT99 · 11-13-08, 01:23 AM

btw they ve had the line like this all week never at -3

sickler · 11-13-08, 01:37 AM

Who is almost everyone? I see a mix of 3's and 3.5's.

rm18 · 11-13-08, 01:50 AM

most of the 3.5 you see do not service or cater to the U.S. but really there is no story here at least to me

reno cool · 11-13-08, 02:05 AM

3.5 avoids a likely tie

AGENT99 · 11-13-08, 05:37 AM

is that it? it avoids A tie?im sure theres a better reason for this isnt there? and guys you dont have to show me lines from this game.if you know why please answer the question.thanks in advance

rm18 · 11-13-08, 05:39 AM

Originally posted by AGENT99

is that it? it avoids A tie?im sure theres a better reason for this isnt there? and guys you dont have to show me lines from this game.if you know why please answer the question.thanks in advance

well avoiding a tie does give the book more expected profit I guess, because about 10% of the time Pats win by 3.

dwaechte · 11-13-08, 12:06 PM

Rm has the right idea.

It's basically just the fact that once a book is on either 2.5, 3, or 3.5, it takes a lot of money to push them off of it. If they move to 3, they'll see tons of action on -3, plus action from some plays who have +3.5 and are looking for the middle. If the +3.5 is getting pounded to death sometimes they have no choice, but if it's only at the point where they need to price it -130/+110 they'll usually keep it there and see if it holds.

Nicky Santoro · 11-13-08, 12:32 PM

reno and rm have the right answer.. i never understood why books use 3 for an NFL game. it is so silly.. having a 3 just tells you that 10% chance you will push.. and books want to avoid the pushes.. pushes cost the books money.. books lose money when they push.. when they write 60k on a game and push, they lose cause they are still paying for employees, rent.. etc.. books DO NOT want to push, it's a nightmare for them..

when i was booking in the 90's, i made my own lines.. I NEVER used 3 in any NFL game.. i always used -2.5 -140/+3.5-140.. the players loved it cause if they took fav or dog, they had an extra half pt. and best part was, we never pushed.. and we didn't even have major expenses like offshore books. when hockey totals were 5 flat.. I made em 4.5 ov -155 and players loved it.. and so did we. we always had more business than most books because of this..

That is why OLY and other books are smart when they make a line -3.5 +110.. they get NO pushes and their hold is higher now and the fav bettors get +110 and are happy, and the dog bettors get an extra half to +3.5..

This is what all books should do.. Dollar for dollar, they'll make more cause of the NO PUSHES.. Thye'll have a higher hold..

jjgold · 11-13-08, 01:17 PM

I am a traditional bettor and only bet -110 either way and do not get ripped off with price gouging

SlickFazzer · 11-13-08, 01:30 PM

Excellent explanation Nicky.

Justin7 · 11-13-08, 01:32 PM

Books want to avoid pushes when they know they have a good number. When I priced props, I *wanted* pushes, because those numbers were bad.

The other thing - some people get confused by "+3.5 -130". They understand what +3 -110 is from experience, but get intimidated by non-standard juices.

Nicky Santoro · 11-13-08, 01:47 PM

another reason why players bet more when line is not 3..

In general, bettors bet to win.. not to push.. they bet to win.. A bettor does NOT want to have -3.. he wants -2.5.. if we bettors wanted to push, we would not be betting.. we all dont think of losing, we just want to win.. so when you like fav and you see -2.5, immediatly, a bettor thinks he'll easily win by a FG and not push.. which is great for book. and dog bettors see +3 and say, damn, i have to win game outright to win bet cause 3 i push. but offer him +3.5 and he is like a kid in a candy store. who cares about the extra 25 cents.. according to him, he's going to win the bet cause that's why he's betting it.. not to push, but to win.. that last thing on his mind is losing..

So that is why books should NEVER use a 3.. when a book uses 3 and it lands on 3, which is often.. then book has basically lost money on this.. when a book writes down 100k on a big MNF game and game lands on 3.. they make 0.. but if they make it 2.5 or 3.5 and it doesn't land on 3, they make 4,540 dollars.. now times that by how many games a yr in NFL that land on 3, when spread is 3..The book can make quite a bit more not making lines of 3 anymore..

3 is a complete waste of time in NFL.. it's just throwing money out the window..when it lands on 3, the book lost money.. big money.. and trust me on this.. a bettor will get a hard on for a -2.5 -125, than -3 even.. anyday...