I figure out my own NFL lines to see what's off...

[Bluehorseshoe]

I'm pretty much dead on for all but three games.

Eagles -3? (Should be a PK)
Tenn only -3 1/2 (Should be 5 1/2)
SF -7???? (Should be 2 1/2)


How is SF -7? That has to be a trap game.

[tto827]

People think Arizona is regressing to what everyone thought they would be at the start of the year, that explains the 7 there. I agree with the Eagles being a bad line, I thought PK also, hence why I'm taking ATL. You might be right on TENN but I wouldn't be willing to bet on it so I'm not going to say either way.

[Bluehorseshoe]

People think Arizona is regressing to what everyone thought they would be at the start of the year, that explains the 7 there. I agree with the Eagles being a bad line, I thought PK also, hence why I'm taking ATL. You might be right on TENN but I wouldn't be willing to bet on it so I'm not going to say either way.

I won't play into them. I'll play against my line if anything.

There's a reason why I'm off.

[MJT1212]

lol its called handicapping...thats what your supposed to do...then bet where you deem there to be value

[HoulihansTX]

49ers will continue to kick FG's vs teams that have a clue on defense.

[Chi_archie]

I like it

[Big Bear]

my lines would be

NY Giants -5.5 over Cowboys

Bears -10 over Panthers

Packers -20 over Jags

49ers -4 over Cards

Titans -6.5 over Colts

Steelers -3.5 over Redskins

Eagles -4 over Falcons

Chargers -7.5 over Browns

Seahawks -2.5 over Lions

Raiders -6 over Chiefs

Broncos - 4 over Saints

Patriots -5.5 over Rams

Jets -3.5 over Dolphins

[tto827]

Aren't the lions favored? Isn't that another significant difference?

[Monte]

Titans are just not good enough to be favored by more

[Bluehorseshoe]

Aren't the lions favored? Isn't that another significant difference?

I had figured Detroit -3.

We really should do this every Sunday night in here.

[tto827]

I had figured Detroit -3.

We really should do this every Sunday night in here.

Oh, okay, you wrote Seahawks -2.5 in post 7 FYI.
And yes, discussions like this are why I joined here, not to watch JJ celebrate 3 of Brock's wins (although his videos were enjoyable)

[Bluehorseshoe]

Oh, okay, you wrote Seahawks -2.5 in post 7 FYI.
And yes, discussions like this are why I joined here, not to watch JJ celebrate 3 of Brock's wins (although his videos were enjoyable)

That wasn't me. lol

[Bluehorseshoe]

Here's what I guessed before looking.

Minny -8
Bears -8
SD -3
Det -3
Pats -7 1/2
Jets -3
Atl pk
Pitt -4
GB -14
Tenn -5 1/2
Raiders -1
Giants pk (Before Lee went down)
Denver -4 1/2
SF -2 1/2

[ChalkyDog]

I am not sure how you calculate yours, but them being that close to the vegas line screams of using Sagarin ratings.

If so, gotta offset his numbers by an average of at least 3-4 other services.

If not, that is pretty interesting.

[JayLA]

I am not sure how you calculate yours, but them being that close to the vegas line screams of using Sagarin ratings.

If so, gotta offset his numbers by an average of at least 3-4 other services.

If not, that is pretty interesting.

I was thinking about this at work. why are Sagarin's ratings so close to Vegas' lines?
what are some other public ratings or services I can compare vegas' lines to? thanks.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I'm pretty much dead on for all but three games.

Eagles -3? (Should be a PK)
Tenn only -3 1/2 (Should be 5 1/2)
SF -7???? (Should be 2 1/2)


How is SF -7? That has to be a trap game.

Agree that Eagle line should be a pk. But like the Eagle's even laying 3. NFL parity dictates that the Eagles should win this game. Big Home game for them and not so much for ATL. In addition, Eagles have not hit their stride all year and are due. Playing them and also like Detroit to win and AZ to cover.

[Bluehorseshoe]

I am not sure how you calculate yours, but them being that close to the vegas line screams of using Sagarin ratings.

If so, gotta offset his numbers by an average of at least 3-4 other services.

If not, that is pretty interesting.

I do not use any rating system. I just look at teams records and their last game. I'll put it up Sunday after the games are over.

[v1y]

I just look at teams records and their last game.

People call this handicapping?

[bigballa]

I'm pretty much dead on for all but three games.

Eagles -3? (Should be a PK)
Tenn only -3 1/2 (Should be 5 1/2)
SF -7???? (Should be 2 1/2)




How is SF -7? That has to be a trap game.

agree with the philly game, its the usual thing spot the home team the 3.....atl are overrated imo but would take them in this one.....

wouldnt touch the titans game if anything fancy the colts....

sf -2.5?!?!???? can you look into setting up a website so i can bet this with you??? the vikes feasted on the qb last week i expect much of the same for sf, agreed 7 might be strong but never -2.5.....

[Bluehorseshoe]

People call this handicapping?

Who said they did? I just use it as a guide.

[Bluehorseshoe]

sf -2.5?!?!???? can you look into setting up a website so i can bet this with you??? the vikes feasted on the qb last week i expect much of the same for sf, agreed 7 might be strong but never -2.5.....

And the Vikings (at home!) won by 7 points. It's a divisional game against a team with a winning record. Laying 7 on the road is a ton.

[k13]

Making your own lines is good and all but ....

Let's say you think Atlanta should be -3 but the line is Philly -3...

Oh look at the value I'm getting now, 6 points on my line, well obviously I'm playing Atlanta +3.

Complete opposite thinking.

[k13]

Team with a winning record....lol

They might win 3 games the rest of the year and that's stretching it.

[Stevedore]

Division games are never trap games, just saying.

[Bluehorseshoe]

Making your own lines is good and all but ....

Let's say you think Atlanta should be -3 but the line is Philly -3...

Oh look at the value I'm getting now, 6 points on my line, well obviously I'm playing Atlanta +3.

Complete opposite thinking.

What are you saying?

[King Swizz]

49ers will lose SU.