Romney surging on Intrade - up 7% today!

[CanuckG]

Obama owns social media you surprised lol

[Justin7]

Well that didn't copy too well. But Nate Silver has Obama at over 70% chance to win Elector college now. Oddly, Pinnacle's odds have followed his predictions very closely for the last couple months.

[SBR_John]

Well that didn't copy too well. But Nate Silver has Obama at over 70% chance to win Elector college now. Oddly, Pinnacle's odds have followed his predictions very closely for the last couple months.

It's not a secret that Pinny has some extremely liberal pedigree. And I back them 100%.

[RealSlimShady]

Is Intrade a betting market? If so, why isnt anyone arbing there vs Pinnacle?

[Monitor-Tan]

What Justin provides is a better arguement.. It's all about electoral votes, and electoral votes show that Obama is indeed leading.. Things cna change, leans can swing but as of now Obama is leading..

[ChiLLx]

Nate Silver's model is based on the fool-proofness of the polls and those are based on the exit polls of 2008 where Dems way outnumbered Reps

He also missed badly in 2010 elections

[tblues2005]

I agree with Justin here and it is who wins the electoral college and it is still at 2-1 in favor of the President. It boils down to Ohio and the turnout there also.

[borednaz]

If Romney wins I will personally be selling my home and every possession so I can move to Canada. Canada has it's problems too, but at least I won't need to learn Chinese and won't have to watch the country unravel to the highest bidders.

I also plan on putting a decent prop bet in cash on Romney to win. Just in case we re-rig the election like with Bush. That money will gratefully help me with my move.

[stevenash]

If Romney wins I will personally be selling my home and every possession so I can move to Canada. Canada has it's problems too, but at least I won't need to learn Chinese and won't have to watch the country unravel to the highest bidders.

I also plan on putting a decent prop bet in cash on Romney to win. Just in case we re-rig the election like with Bush. That money will gratefully help me with my move.

I got 100 to your 50 you ain't moving anywhere if Romney wins.

[Boner_18]

Amazing. Romney is flipping IL!

He has my IL vote. God bless the USA!

[Fishhead]

Amazing. Romney is flipping IL!

He has my IL vote. God bless the USA!

His blessings needed 10-fold if Romney wins.

[Emily_Haines]

You're a fukkin idiot. Why don't you leave the country?

You're going to be crying like a little pussy on November 6.

[Emily_Haines]

I got 100 to your 50 you ain't moving anywhere if Romney wins.

I got 1200 to your 1 that if Obama wins you will still continue to post a bunch of garbage on how Obama has ruined the country and any f\*g politician that brings up a impeachment bill you will reach in your pants and shoot your nuts off.

[Cuse0323]

Americans will be fooled again unfortunately John. Obama wins, but at least the right party can take over in 2016 unless he completely destroys this country. I would fight for this country, but not for Obama's mistakes. If we went to war, I'd go voluntarily but not under this leadership.

[Cuse0323]

Shit like this will fool the ignorant majority.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-inflated-jobs-claim-184609682--politics.html

[Fishhead]

I guess finding and killing Osama(Bush searching caves) ,saving the auto industry, and bringing troops home means nothing to you Romnesia backers.

For the sake of mankind, wake the hell up and smell the beans!!!

[McBa1n]

Facts aren't partisan and most of what I'm reading is not fact.
Pretty weak thread fact wise.
Vote neither!

[Cuse0323]

I guess finding and killing Osama(Bush searching caves) ,saving the auto industry, and bringing troops home means nothing to you Romnesia backers.

For the sake of mankind, wake the hell up and smell the beans!!!

Someday I hope you will.

[Fishhead]

Someday I hope you will.

Ignoring facts, first sympton Romnesia.

Second sympton, blaming Obama for 8 years of Bush's complete array of disasters that almost single handedly brought this country to its knees.

[gregm]

Nate Silver's model is based on the fool-proofness of the polls and those are based on the exit polls of 2008 where Dems way outnumbered Reps

He also missed badly in 2010 elections

??????? This is wrong on every level. His methodology is alot more complex than just relying on the fool proofness of polls. Even the comment about 2010 is way off, he predicted 92% of the senate races and 36 of the 37 governors races correctly.

silvers model 2010



Actual results



Silvers Five Thirty Eight blog is one of the most interesting blogs you will read anywhere on politics and just modeling in general. A statistician that can actually write pretty well, there is even alot of sabermetrics in his writings, definitely one of the more interesting bloggers out there.

[Emily_Haines]

??????? This is wrong on every level. His methodology is alot more complex than just relying on the fool proofness of polls. Even the comment about 2010 is way off, he predicted 92% of the senate races and 36 of the 37 governors races correctly.

silvers model 2010



Actual results



Silvers Five Thirty Eight blog is one of the most interesting blogs you will read anywhere on politics and just modeling in general. One of the few statiscians who can actually write pretty well, there is even alot of sabermetrics in his writings, definitely one of the more interesting bloggers out there.

That's Great.....here is my model

[KingJD31]

you will have to learn chinese if obama wins

If Romney wins I will personally be selling my home and every possession so I can move to Canada. Canada has it's problems too, but at least I won't need to learn Chinese and won't have to watch the country unravel to the highest bidders.

I also plan on putting a decent prop bet in cash on Romney to win. Just in case we re-rig the election like with Bush. That money will gratefully help me with my move.

[KingJD31]

obama killed bin laden and saved the auto industry himself? Could of sworn it was the navy seals that killed him and the tax payers who saved the auto industry and gm still hasn't paid it back, good call though

I guess finding and killing Osama(Bush searching caves) ,saving the auto industry, and bringing troops home means nothing to you Romnesia backers.

For the sake of mankind, wake the hell up and smell the beans!!!

[ACoochy]

obama killed bin laden and saved the auto industry himself? Could of sworn it was the navy seals that killed him and the tax payers who saved the auto industry and gm still hasn't paid it back, good call though

Just like it was taxpayers that made this site what it is (ie a group effort). Something that has partially been lost on the higherups here for the longest of times...

[Pew Pew]

John can you at least increase the max limit obama president election prop to 3000 points instead of 250?

you don't have to increase romney's limit... just obama. if you do this, it shows us you really are confident romney does have a decent chance of winning the election... and you're not all talk.

[KingJD31]

1 % of u.s population covers 40% of of all federal taxes,maybe we should look at the 50% of people who don't pay any income taxes

Just like it was taxpayers that made this site what it is (ie a group effort). Something that has been lost on the higherups here for the longest of times...

[stevenash]

I guess finding and killing Osama(Bush searching caves) ,saving the auto industry, and bringing troops home means nothing to you Romnesia backers.

For the sake of mankind, wake the hell up and smell the beans!!!

Obama didn't shoot the gun that killed Bin Laden.

Who bailed out the auto company?

President Obama on Wednesday said that President Bush was responsible for bailing out auto companies in Detroit, writes the Washington Examiner’s Charlie Spiering.
“Keep in mind,” the president said, “That the administration before us, they had been writing some checks to the auto industry asking nothing in return. It was just a bailout, straight — straightforward.”

[BettingWizard]

only because some whale put down 18k on romney

pinnacle has obama -200. Intrade is not a good predictor of what is going to happen

[opie1988]

Give me 3-1 and I'll let you bet any amount you want up to $500k. We will post up at Pinny.

Johnny quickly shuts-up all the brokedikk fukk libs with this post.
Free $500k available for all the libtard prikks......and not a single one of them takes it.

Typical brokedikk fukk mentality.

[stevenash]

Intrade is not a good predictor of what is going to happen

Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG says “Intrade is our best real-time indicator other than polls themselves. It’s helpful to pay attention.”

[Boner_18]

No one wants to elect a divorced drug dealer. Romney it is.

Thanks for your support all!

[nosniboR11]

Seriously, anyone voting for Romney should just say fuk it and leave the country, no matter who wins the election......you types of individuals are precisely why vast majority of the planet hates this country.

At this time in our nation's history, only fools and heartless Americans will be voting for Romney, THIS IS A 100% FACT!!!

Romney wins, doubt this country exixts in 10-20 years.

damn you are stupid, no wonder you gamble for a living

more like if you idiot wins there will be no Country left. Fishhead you are a dumbass

[Emily_Haines]

Johnny quickly shuts-up all the brokedikk fukk libs with this post.
Free $500k available for all the libtard prikks......and not a single one of them takes it.

Typical brokedikk fukk mentality.

I offered to beted him all my points at even money and he runned and hided. I extended the same offer to you but I thinks you just runned and hided as well.

[CanuckG]

runned and hided

[ChiLLx]

Pinnacle down to +167 on Romney