Romney surging on Intrade - up 7% today!

[ChiLLx]

??????? This is wrong on every level. His methodology is alot more complex than just relying on the fool proofness of polls. Even the comment about 2010 is way off, he predicted 92% of the senate races and 36 of the 37 governors races correctly.

silvers model 2010



Actual results



Silvers Five Thirty Eight blog is one of the most interesting blogs you will read anywhere on politics and just modeling in general. A statistician that can actually write pretty well, there is even alot of sabermetrics in his writings, definitely one of the more interesting bloggers out there.

I was actually referring to the House races in which he predicted 55 seats won by Republicans, yet they went on to win 63

[stevenash]

<small>2012 US Presidential Election</small>
Tue 11/6		1001 Barack Obama wins 2012 election		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -170
6:00AM		1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +150
Tue 11/6		1101 Barack Obama wins Colorado		<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +100
6:00AM		1102 Mitt Romney wins Colorado		<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -140
Tue 11/6		1103 Barack Obama wins Florida		<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +175
6:00AM		1104 Mitt Romney wins Florida		<input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -245
Tue 11/6		1105 Barack Obama wins Iowa		<input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -210
6:00AM		1106 Mitt Romeny wins Iowa		<input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +160
Tue 11/6		1107 Barack Obama wins New Hampshire		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -140
6:00AM		1108 Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +100
Tue 11/6		1109 Barack Obama wins Ohio		<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -190
6:00AM		1110 Mitt Romney wins Ohio		<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +150
Tue 11/6		1111 Barack Obama wins Virginia		<input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +150
6:00AM		1112 Mitt Romney wins Virginia		<input id="editx" name="M2_6" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -190
Tue 11/6		1113 Barack Obama wins Wisconsin		<input id="editx" name="M1_7" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -300
6:00AM		1114 Mitt Romney wins Wisconsin		<input id="editx" name="M2_7" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +220
<small>2012 US Presidential Election - Electoral College</small>
Tue 11/6		1261 Electoral College to be tied 269-269		<input id="editx" name="M1_8" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +2500
6:00AM		1262 Electoral College not tied 269-269		<input id="editx" name="M2_8" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -7500
<small>2012 US Presidential Election - Popular Vote</small>
Tue 11/6		1391 Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999%		<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -280
6:00AM		1392 Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999%		<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +200
<small>2012 Congressional Elections - post election control of the Senate</small>
Tue 11/6		1901 Democrats control the Senate		<input id="editx" name="M1_10" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -290
6:00AM		1902 Republicans control Senate / Split		<input id="editx" name="M2_10" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +210
Tue 11/6		1903 Control of Senate a split		<input id="editx" name="M1_11" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +370
6:00AM		1904 Control of Senate not a split		<input id="editx" name="M2_11" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -560
Tue 11/6		1905 Republicans control the Senate		<input id="editx" name="M1_12" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +400
6:00AM		1905 Democrats control Senate / split		<input id="editx" name="M2_12" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -600
<cite>a split = no action</cite>
Tue 11/6		1907 Democrats control the Senate		<input id="editx" name="M1_13" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -380
6:00AM		1908 Republicans control the Senate		<input id="editx" name="M2_13" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +260
<small>Ballot Initiatives - Marijuana reform and legalisation</small>
Tue 11/6		4001 Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed		<input id="editx" name="M1_14" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -140
6:00AM		4002 Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass		<input id="editx" name="M2_14" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +100
Tue 11/6		4005 Washington Initiative I-502 to be passed		<input id="editx" name="M1_15" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> -350
6:00AM		4006 Washington Initiative I-502 won't pass		<input id="editx" name="M2_15" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); "> +250

[Erock87]

This Mass resident and his wife will be voting Romney on the 6th. As a Soldier, not a fan of the man who cuts back military spending and acts like he played a role in the bin laden debacle. It's not rocket science; if the intelligence community comes to you claiming to have an opportunity to take out bin laden, NO ONE TURNS THAT DOWN.

But, this beautiful country is a democracy, and I will gladly live in it regardless of who is elected.

[SBR_John]

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
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56.3%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $5.63 / share
Today's Change: -$0.45 (-7.4%)

Dropping like a rock.

[Chili_Powder]

.....

[SBR_John]

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
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55.3%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $5.53 / share
Today's Change: -$0.55 (-9%)
getting worse

[PAULYPOKER]

Seriously, anyone voting for Romney should just say fuk it and leave the country, no matter who wins the election......you types of individuals are precisely why vast majority of the planet hates this country.

At this time in our nation's history, only fools and heartless Americans will be voting for Romney, THIS IS A 100% FACT!!!

Romney wins, doubt this country exixts in 10-20 years.

Very true Fisher but Obama is not much better,

He is better at taking care of the poor but he is going to make everybody poor,kind of like a mentally ill mother who keeps you sick so you will depend on her.....

[d2bets]

Major manipulation happening on Intrade. True odds are more indicative elsewhere, but the odds to bet Obama at Intrade are pure gold.

[Pew Pew]

it's so obvious SBR John and company is attempting a classic pump and dump scheme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump)


nice try bro

[neverstoppers23]

john people are idiots. seriously, you post any remote romney news. just shows how desprite you are, to think romney has a chance of winning.

and this has nothing to do with the media declaring a victory, nothing at all.

cbs intant poll, of undecided voters had obama winning 54-24.

obama gained a-lot of voters, according to the same poll. who said the debate swayed them to lean in his direction. i forgot the exact numbers but i think it was 24 percent of undecided were leaning his way pre-debate, 46 after the debate.

anyways like i have countless times. the e.c break down clearly favors obama. it would take a near miracle for romney to win. you can quote all the national polls you want, and some dumbass stock site, where people are trying to find value because they are brain washed by the same media you bash who claims the race is close. when its not close at all. obama has a very clear path to victory, with a new poll released yesterday with obama up 5 pts in ohio. again, he wins ohio he wins the election. if he wins col, he wins the election. if he wins, va, he wins the election. if he wins n.c he wins the election. if he wins fl, he wins the election.

now for romney, he HAS to win ohio, fl, col, n.c.,va to win.



obama can still win without winning ohio if he wins col, and iowa. col is somewhat leaning romney right now, but other polls have obama up slightly.

ohio is a clear path to victory for obama. i havn't seen a poll with romney up in ohio in a very long time. so again, i do not get this non-sense of romney winning. just look at the plain, simple facts.


wisky and pa, are clearing in obamas favor. romney gained some, but obama was up double digits in both states. of course it would come down some. in a poll released 3 weeks ago obama was up 14 pts, and now because its only 6 people are freaking out. same thing with new jersey, where obama has 15-20 pt leads depending on what polls you look at, and now it has come down just slightly and you have people actually thinking romney has a chance there.
even romney knows he has no chance there, he has almost no presense there.
same thing for pa, he pulled out his resources in pa to focus on ohio. because he knows, like everyone else he needs a win there. because obama has a clear edge there.

i just don't get it. i really don't, how people think this race is even close. i am an obama supporter, but i have voted republican many times. i voted for McCain last time, and voted for Walker as gov. in Wisconsin. So I am not some far left attitude all the time.

I just don't get when you sit down, look at the e.c map, and think romney has a real chance of winning.

[RogueScholar]

it's so obvious SBR John and company is attempting a classic pump and dump scheme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump)


nice try bro

While something like that wouldn't be out of character for John, InTrade's liquidity is far too thin to realize any significant gain from such a tactic. Nathaniel Popper of the New York Times estimated that it only cost some Romney fanboy (*cough* John *cough*) $1,250 to get that initial 6% surge we saw this morning.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/business/economy/a-brief-betting-surge-for-romney-on-intrade.html?_r=0

[neverstoppers23]

Nice post R.S. Have not seen you in forever, pm me!

[King Mayan]

The trump secret is driving this..

[SBR_John]

The trump secret is driving this..

Is that what it is???? I've seen no mention of that on the news. But Obama futures are in a clear and consistent nose dive. Now down a head scratching 11 points for the day.

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
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54.1%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $5.41 / share
Today's Change: -$0.67 (-11%)

[ChiLLx]

Down to +162 on Pinnacle

It was over +200 last night

[Emily_Haines]

Is that what it is???? I've seen no mention of that on the news. But Obama futures are in a clear and consistent nose dive. Now down a head scratching 11 points for the day.

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
Share on facebook Share on google_plusone
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54.1%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $5.41 / share
Today's Change: -$0.67 (-11%)

Keep posting your chart crap showing Romney is winning.

Only have roughly two weeks of shooting your nuts off over the latest poll data.

[ChiLLx]

Intrade was incorrect about Obamacare being overturned but late money poured in support of it being upheld

Anyone who watches Intrade knows it's not foolproof

[neverstoppers23]

Intrade was incorrect about Obamacare being overturned but late money poured in support of it being upheld

Anyone who watches Intrade knows it's not foolproof

4 sure.

its just perception of the public. the perception of the public is the race is close, because the media overplays national polls. national polls are meaning less.

bet online has obama winning ohio at -200 romney at +160. if anyone wants to take that bet on romney go ahead.

just cant wait till this is over. the only problem is i have a night course on tuesdays. the professor is from england, and is an india imigriant from there. anyways she put our taxation exam on that night. we have a 'smart board' tv thing in our close and she claims she is going to put the web feed up and have it refreshing every few minutes.

just ready for all this bs to be over, i am getting five calls a day from the uaw, democrats of america, liberals, polls, and even robo calls from romney today.

[jizay]

While something like that wouldn't be out of character for John, InTrade's liquidity is far too thin to realize any significant gain from such a tactic. Nathaniel Popper of the New York Times estimated that it only cost some Romney fanboy (*cough* John *cough*) $1,250 to get that initial 6% surge we saw this morning.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/bu...rade.html?_r=0

Intrade investigated and responded that it wasn't manipulation. 40 different accounts were part of the buying. They checked those accounts and there was nothing unusual about them. Price as I type is close to where it was from the "manipulation." It was just a flurry of buying.

[jizay]

Intrade was incorrect about Obamacare being overturned but late money poured in support of it being upheld

Anyone who watches Intrade knows it's not foolproof

Intrade put it at 75%. 75% <> 100%. If something trades at 75%, it should only happen 75% of the time. The fact that it didn't happen doesn't make Intrade incorrect.

[Popcorn Trick]

Fishead - what kind of govt check are you receiving?

[Popcorn Trick]

The trump secret is driving this..

Trump's got nothing. If he had some real neg info and he wanted it to affect Obama negatively to the greatest degree, this is not how he would do it.

[tblues2005]

Keep posting your chart crap showing Romney is winning.

Only have roughly two weeks of shooting your nuts off over the latest poll data.

I cannot wait until election day and getting this over with. I just don't understand why that Ohio would go to Romney. I think that it will be close but Obama should win that state. I did see Colorado's been close but I do think Obama has a chance in that state. I predict that we will see the winner be announced by 11 pm eastern on election night.

[ACoochy]

1 % of u.s population covers 40% of of all federal taxes,maybe we should look at the 50% of people who don't pay any income taxes

If u did that SBR would be broke within 6months. Not only that but the economy itself would grind to a halt.

Good as an idea but not really suited in todays climate. A little bit like religious teachings imo

[neverstoppers23]

I cannot wait until election day and getting this over with. I just don't understand why that Ohio would go to Romney. I think that it will be close but Obama should win that state. I did see Colorado's been close but I do think Obama has a chance in that state. I predict that we will see the winner be announced by 11 pm eastern on election night.

i think it will be around 10 pm eastern time. ohio will be a clear victory for obama, early voting is going his way. 68 percent voted for obama in early voting. so factoring in that, plus exit polls which show about about 3-4 pts they will call it. pa, will be called early. same for wisky and iowa. and then they will name obama the winner. cant wait for it to be over.and the far right dream of romney winning. romney is one of the worst republican candidates for president i have ever seen. i can't believe this is the best they can bring. the guy has changed his position of every issue.

[neverstoppers23]

1 % of u.s population covers 40% of of all federal taxes,maybe we should look at the 50% of people who don't pay any income taxes

king mayen, yes they don't pay 'income taxes' because they make a low wage! the fact is those people pay more in taxes per percentage of their agi then any other group. state taxes, product taxes, fica taxes(social security, medicare)

[oddtodd]

d2bets and others ignore the obvious: Obama was on the offensive because he feels his feet to the fire. Momentum is shifting and not in his favor, as these markets reflect.

Did not discuss his plan for the next four years at all, except maybe his closing statement. Romney was brilliant by being lucid expressing himself while staying cool, calm and collected. He came off more presidential. With the bleeding he caused in the first debate, he didn't need to simply argue like Obama was obviously instructed to.

haha what? Romney was brilliant? he made a complete fool of himself. Retracted or went against everything he had said in the primaries, commended Obama on his policy decisions then walked into the zinger of a lifetime. Delusion is a funny thing.

[mikejamm]

Originally Posted by SBR_John
Give me 3-1 and I'll let you bet any amount you want up to $500k. We will post up at Pinny.

Johnny quickly shuts-up all the brokedikk fukk libs with this post.
Free $500k available for all the libtard prikks......and not a single one of them takes it.

Typical brokedikk fukk mentality.

Yeah typical republican smoke up your ass bullshit talk, from a fake numbers crunching loser and a dumb fuk'in hillbilly from Texas whose governor couldn't even name the three branches of government!

Plus, you already fuk'in know Americans can't have accounts at Pinny! I've got 5K right now big shot and I'll bet you straight up winner if you've got the balls. Cashiers check held in escrow. Third party forwards the check to the winner.

[shari91]

Trump's got nothing. If he had some real neg info and he wanted it to affect Obama negatively to the greatest degree, this is not how he would do it.

Didn't his silly secret already come out?

Douglas Kass, who often appears with Trump on the US talkshow Squawkbox and has written for the Wall Street Journal, tweeted: "High above the Alps my Gnome has heard that Donald Trump will announce that he has unearthed divorce papers between the Prez and his wife."

When asked by Mail Online about Kass's tweet, Trump's spokesman did not deny it. The day before Trump's right-hand man, Michael Cohen, denied that Trump would be speaking about an anonymous rumour that Obama sold cocaine in college.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/entertainment/donald-trumps-dirty-bombshell-revealed-tycoon-to-claim-he-has-obama-divorce-papers/story-e6frf96x-1226502243725

[dontknowhowtobet]

ohio will be a clear victory for obama, early voting is going his way. 68 percent voted for obama in early voting.

2 questions for you:

1) Where did you get these numbers from, please? (I mean can I see the source please?)
2) There are TONS of claims of Romney's voting machines used in Ohio - in this case doesn't matter how many people vote, Romney would win.

Please please answer back.

[ACoochy]

Johnny quickly shuts-up all the brokedikk fukk libs with this post.
Free $500k available for all the libtard prikks......and not a single one of them takes it.

Typical brokedikk fukk mentality.

Baskets, the guy says 500k yet is too scared to take anymore than 300 max bet in his book...

U lot really are mentally challenged...

[mikejamm]

This Mass resident and his wife will be voting Romney on the 6th. As a Soldier, not a fan of the man who cuts back military spending and acts like he played a role in the bin laden debacle. It's not rocket science; if the intelligence community comes to you claiming to have an opportunity to take out bin laden, NO ONE TURNS THAT DOWN.

But, this beautiful country is a democracy, and I will gladly live in it regardless of who is elected.

He's not cutting funding for the Military dumb ass! He's leaving it exactly where it's at! What he's not gonna do is build more ships that the secretary of the Navy has already said we don't need! You should thank your lucky stars that we do have a president who cares about the Military and their families as much as President Obama does! If McCain was president right now, your ass would still be overseas fighting a stupid, useless and wasteful war!

Make sure you use your G.I Bill to get a fuk'in education, you're gonna need it! "No one turns that down." What a stupid fuk'in statement! Bush never even bothered to look for bin laden, let alone go after him! And Romney said, "One guy (bin laden) wasn't his top priority". Take a fuk'in trip to the 9-11 memorial in NY and see if you still feel the same. Talk to a family member who lost someone, because it easy to see one there every day! Ask them how they feel and how grateful they are to a president who took out the worst fuk'in muslim shithead terrorist of all time!

Thanks for your service, but you should really read up on the issues before you open your mouth, private!

[Pew Pew]

it's really sad, pathetic, and desparate when the republican party needs donald trump to go tmz on obama....

[dontknowhowtobet]

it's really sad, pathetic, and desparate when the republican party needs donald trump to go tmz on obama....

Seconded by me.

[dontknowhowtobet]

2 questions for you:

1) Where did you get these numbers from, please? (I mean can I see the source please?)
2) There are TONS of claims of Romney's voting machines used in Ohio - in this case doesn't matter how many people vote, Romney would win.

Please please answer back.

Can anyone else answer my 2 questions above please?