Nfl makes no sense

[shaunovery]

It baffles me for hrs all week you study the games burning the midnight oil
Then when the results are in time to scratch your head

Green bay can't bt colts but bt texans
Eagles can bt giants can't bt lions

It makes no sense

[A4K]

It baffles me for hrs all week you study the games burning the midnight oil
Then when the results are in time to scratch your head

Green bay can't bt colts but bt texans
Eagles can bt giants can't bt lions

It makes no sense

You left out.....

Giants destroy 49ers, but couldn't beat the Eagles or Cowboys.

Teams make adjustments. These are professional athletes who have pride. To expect a team to play the exact same from week number one until week number 17 is silly.

My advice to you, be a contrarian and start backing teams that you think have ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE of winning. That's where the money is hidden.

[Albert Pujols]

It's the league of Any Given Sunday. There are probably 50 people in the world that can beat it. Don't bet on the NFL.

[shaunovery]

My 3 biggest bets of the week

Steelers -5
Ravens -3
Eagles -3

All 3 were covering inside the final 5 mins of the game so I was hcaping ok

[Sam Odom]

#1 mistake rookies and even seasoned gamblers do is....

Compare scores (winners and losers) for future results of Sides

[A4K]

#1 mistake rookies and even seasoned gamblers do is....

Compare scores (winners and losers) for future results of Sides

Nailed it. There are way too many variables that shape each game and the final score.

[shaunovery]

I think we should start capping the officials in each game

Which ones gives more penalties than others

[A4K]

I think we should start capping the officials in each game

Which ones gives more penalties than others

People laugh at me, but remember this....

The NFL makes more money when there is "parity" in the league. With parity comes more knuckle head fans buying tickets, gear, and most importantly, watching the games! The NFL makes a sh!tload of money on selling television rights to FOX, CBS and ESPN. The higher the ratings, the more they can charge. Keep that in mind before capping your games. You'd be surprised at how many questionable calls pop up late in a primetime game with one team about to put the game to bed. The NFL and the television networks don't want to lose viewers for the last half of 4th quarters. I'm not saying the NFL fixes games like the WWE, but it is in their interest to have the officials keep games close, when possible, down the home stretch of a game.

[BEANTOWNJIM]

IT WAS A BIG WEEK FOR UNDERDOGS AND COMEBACKS PATRIOTS NEVER BLOW A BIG LEAD LATE IN GAMES LIKE YESTERDAY.SAMETHING WITH THE RAVENS NOBODY IS GOING TO TELL ME BALTIMORE DIDNT FIX THAT GAME THEY LET DALLAS COVER KNOWING THEY WOULDNT GET THE 2 POINT CONVERSION

YOU HAVE TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE FIX

[stevenash]

It baffles me for hrs all week you study the games burning the midnight oil
Then when the results are in time to scratch your head

Green bay can't bt colts but bt texans
Eagles can bt giants can't bt lions

It makes no sense

You can beat a game, but you can't beat the game(s)

For sanity sake, think of the NFL like this, select a game you like to wager on, think of the wager as entertainment factor, not as an investement, and enjoy the game. If you bet 200 on a game and it loses, justify like this, "well, I got 3 hours of entertainment, it would have cost me 200 to take the wife out to a Broadway show, that would have been 200 dollars also"

Also, they have been saying "On any given Sunday" for decades.
There is a reason for that.

Also, results that on the surface doesn't make sense to the casual fan, like Seattle beating New England outright, actually does make sense.
The more educated NFL follower knows that even though Seattle may have less talent, it's not wise to bet against them in their dome, out there in the upper northwest against any team, especially a team that flies 6 hours from Boston.

Also, certain teams has other teams 'number'.
Giants for instance seem to beat SF no matter if SF outplays them or not.

One more thing, like it or not, this is not a Oliver Stone conspiracy, this is not paranoia, this isn't kooky talk, this is a fact, some, not all, some games are crooked, that's the way it is, that's the way it's always been , been like that since I was in college betting Joe Montana, been like that since my daddy was betting Joe Namath, been like that since my grand daddy was betting Sammy Baugh.

Bet a game or two next week, think of it as an entertainment prop, not an investment, hope the game covers and cashes, if it doesn't don't sweat it, and think of the loss as a Sunday matinee show.

[BEANTOWNJIM]

NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT BUT WASNT MIAMI ALSO COVERING LATE AND BLOWING THE POINT SPREAD.FUNNY THINGS HAPPEN IN THE NFL. THATS WHY I USUALLY PLAY TOTALS INSTEAD OF SIDES I KNOW THESE GAMES ARE RIGGED AND I HATE TO SAY THIS I BLAME IT ON THE OFFICIALS THE REPLACEMENT OFFICIALS WERE MORE HONEST THAN THESE CROOKS THAT ARE FIXING GAMES

[Sam Odom]

since my daddy was betting Joe Namath

Sammy is old enough to be your Dad.... I had Shula's Colts in SBIII <-- Been chasing ever since

[TheLock]

My 3 biggest bets of the week

Steelers -5
Ravens -3
Eagles -3

All 3 were covering inside the final 5 mins of the game so I was hcaping ok

No you weren't

[jjgold]

They are all pros so on any given Sunday anyone can beat anyone

NFL very balanced now

Some aging great qbs one of the reasons

[stevenash]

Sammy is old enough to be your Dad.... I had Shula's Colts in SBIII <-- Been chasing ever since

Everybody had Johnny U and the Shula Colts.
It was a lead pipe cinch.
Jets were nobodies, except for a hard gin drinking QB from Alabama.

Who knew in 1968-1969 Pete Rozelle at that time set that SB game up to give the old AFL credibility,eventually merging with the NFL to make that empire, bigger, stronger..............

That's one of your bigger NFL fixes, that SB.

[GunShard]

Consider the difference between Divisional games and Non Divisional games. Teams know each other well on Divisional games.

Eli Manning struggles against Divisional opponents; Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins.

[Easy-Rider 66]

It's the league of Any Given Sunday. There are probably 50 people in the world that can beat it. Don't bet on the NFL.

Parity is the rule in the NFL. When in doubt, I like to take the points against a team with a better record. If you faded the Niners, Falcons, Texans, Ravens, Steelers, Eagles, you covered every game. In each instance the dog had a worse record but covered the number. Parity reigns.

[WHATaTEASE]

You can't say just because Eagles beat Team A they should be able to beat Team B. If it were that easy we would all be rich.

[SparJMU]

matchups, situations, injuries, motivation. that's all that matters.

[convick]

My advice to you, be a contrarian and start backing teams that you think have ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE of winning. That's where the money is hidden.

Thats not a good strategy either. I bet you hit 50% or less if you back ugly dogs weekly. You really have to pick your spots wisely, or else you could end up backing teams like the Chiefs (covered last week, blown out this week) or Tennessee (covered this week, blown out last week) for the wrong game. Or how about last week? Lots of people got suckered into taking the Browns and Bills... that turned out real well.

[floridagolfer]

My 3 biggest bets of the week

Steelers -5
Ravens -3
Eagles -3

All 3 were covering inside the final 5 mins of the game so I was hcaping ok

And since when do you get paid because you have a winner with 5 minutes to go? Because those picks went 0-3, I would argue your handicapping is a little less than OK.

[wtt0315]

study?? All you need to do is find brock, fade win

[k13]

Actually it makes very good sense unless you are looking it from a "fan" point of view.

Only very few games a week don't make sense.

It follows a nice WWE script.

[k13]

-7 Packers vs Colts, everyone a board , -6.5, packers lose

Now Packers go play the "best" team in football and curb stomp them.

Meanwhile the Colts just blew their load on the Packers, play the Jets which everyone loves to fade, get a little cute +3.5 appetizer. Colts get killed like they are supposed.

Patriots look like world beaters against the Broncos, fill up that train and crash it in Seattle because people still can't believe.

Titans look like complete ass, Steelers beat the Eagles.....what do you know Titans beat the Steelers, oh no, the mega surprise.


Nothing is 100% but like in chess you have to think many steps ahead. You have to think of Week 6 when you are in Week 4 and so on.

[Fang-Banger]

No ryhmye or reason in betting

Just go on instinct and trends plus other factors like injuries/motivation/etc.

Sort of like poker...lot of it is feel

[k13]

If Packers lose/don't cover to the pathetic Rams next week, is that NFL making sense or not?

[Fang-Banger]

-7 Packers vs Colts, everyone a board , -6.5, packers lose

Now Packers go play the "best" team in football and curb stomp them.

Meanwhile the Colts just blew their load on the Packers, play the Jets which everyone loves to fade, get a little cute +3.5 appetizer. Colts get killed like they are supposed.

Patriots look like world beaters against the Broncos, fill up that train and crash it in Seattle because people still can't believe.

Titans look like complete ass, Steelers beat the Eagles.....what do you know Titans beat the Steelers, oh no, the mega surprise.


Nothing is 100% but like in chess you have to think many steps ahead. You have to think of Week 6 when you are in Week 4 and so on.

Last paragraph is so true. Have to stay one step of the game

[NYSportsGuy210]

Last paragraph is so true. Have to stay one step of the game

No this isn't true. Because if you're sharp you need to know what happens in week 5 before you can look at week 6. Plus the lines aren't out two weeks in advance. Also injuries to consider.

[billysink]

NFL makes a ton of sense and presents a lot of value every week. It is the approach of the handicappers that takes all that away. Focus. Some of the most simple systems can find value daily.

All of this public perception, line move. circle jerk. due theories. rigged perception et al takes away from the focus on the games themselves. Those games are played, won and lost on the field.

You have to understand the game, develop a system that encompasses that which happens on the field and filter the results of that system thought the usual. Injuries, weather, travel, scheduling etc. Line movement should only be used as a tool to determine value, not as an indicator of who is gonna win, lose or cover.

We have been trained through these very forums and the media to overthink and not trust our own understanding of these games. We have also through the years been conditioned to approach Sundays as a sprint not a marathon. I have only bet 5 games this whole season. Those games represented where I thought I saw some value. I see guys playing half the fukkin card. Or worse, saying they are going to play x # of games this week. It seems that the average guy here has to make a play no matter what.

Again, with all the half time, quarters, props, side. ML. totals, there is a ton of value in this sport. Takes a lot of work to find it but it is there.

[k13]

No this isn't true. Because if you're sharp you need to know what happens in week 5 before you can look at week 6. Plus the lines aren't out two weeks in advance. Also injuries to consider.

The lines have been out for every week in the nfl before the season started.

So when a line like GB +5.5 vs Houston comes you can't help to laugh.

[Ushouldpayme]

so 8332]-7 Packers vs Colts everyone a board , -6.5, packers lose

Now Packers go play the "best" team in football and curb stomp them.

Meanwhile the Colts just blew their load on the Packers, play the Jets which everyone loves to fade, get a little cute +3.5 appetizer. Colts get killed like they are supposed.

Patriots look like world beaters against the Broncos, fill up that train and crash it in Seattle because people still can't believe.

Titans look like complete ass, Steelers beat the Eagles.....what do you know Titans beat the Steelers, oh no, the mega surprise.


Nothing is 100% but like in chess you have to think many steps ahead. You have to think of Week 6 when you are in Week 4 and so on.[/QUOTE]

I took the Pack because of what the Jets were able to do down field against the Texans in the previous game. I don't always pick like that but I knew they'd keep it close with Rogers being better than Sanchez. GB defense is also decent to get a couple stops because the LB's are good. No one saw Houston laying a dud tho. Styles matter, look for balance and stay away from mid major teams playing eachother as my guy from espn insider who makes picks every week says. why do the giants own the pats? Pressure up front and good tackling.

[ttrace35]

What happened the week before, makes a big difference. Teams that get curb stomped usually make a good showing the next week.

[ttrace35]

Any stat guys can find the ATS record of teams losing by 10+, the prior week?

[Br0nxer]

sharp thread

I am fukkin lost right now

Had a very profitable last couple NFL seasons so guess I was due

Getting my ass handed to me last few weeks

[rumnblack]

It's called sport. You're not meant to understand it or be able to predict it.