Couple middling questions

**kdmfox** · 09-23-05, 06:13 PM

Geeeeeeee BB ... Looks like good entertainment ... The Fox

**tacomax** · 09-23-05, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

I already put this in but is this worth it?

Iowa St -17.5 (+100 @Pinny)
Army +18 (+100 @SIA)

Wasn't planning on betting this game anyway...but once I saw this it figured to be a free bet. In the rare event it lands on 18 I'll win. Plus most of my bets have been at SIA this year so I am trying to meet rollover requirements at PINNY and figured this was a good way to put some action on there.

Well it's essentially a free bet - costs you nothing and you get the chance of a nice win if it lands on 18.

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Earlier today I saw this and wondered if there is anything I can do with this.

Michigan -3 (+100)
Wisconsin +2.5 (+103)

Correct me if I am wrong...there is absolutely nothing i can do with this right?

Well you can treat it as an arb, pound the lines and pray that Michigan don't win by 3.

Good luck if you've got the balls for that, though.

**rm18** · 09-23-05, 06:24 PM

Right the 2nd bet would be a very bad move,

**Mudcat** · 09-23-05, 07:11 PM

Yeah I wouldn't touch that 2nd bet. So much to lose, so little to gain.

1st one is a free roll. If you've got the money sitting there doing nothing, you'd be a fool not to play it IMO - even without the rollover factor. Every once in awhile those hit. They really do.

**Bill Dozer** · 09-23-05, 07:16 PM

Well you can treat it as an arb, pound the lines and pray that Michigan don't win by 3.

Good luck if you've got the balls for that, though.

I've heard this referred to as "bridge jumping" (actually is betting on horse fav?), "reverse middle" and "a poor man's scalp". This one is a jump that will kill ya eventually.

**tacomax** · 09-23-05, 07:54 PM

If the odds are "right" then statistically they're worth doing just like a regular middle.

Say it's a +105/+105 line and you bet $1K on each side, you're essentially risking $1K since if you hit the middle then you lose one bet and push the other. If you avoid the middle, you gain $50. To come out even or better, you need to avoid your middle in at least 19 out of 20 bets. If statistically you hit the middle 1 in 30 times then it's a value bet.

Just takes balls to risk a lot of money to win a little.

**raiders72001** · 09-23-05, 08:01 PM

Taxoman- You couldn't be more wrong. You have to figure out the % of time that 3 hits to determine if the risk is worth it or not. For a $100 bet on both sides you are risking $100 to win $3.

**raiders72001** · 09-23-05, 08:06 PM

BB- You really have to know the percentage of time that a line will push to try the +2.5/-3 thing. At times you will be able to find advantages in this play but you really need some data before trying it.

**tacomax** · 09-23-05, 08:15 PM

I was wrong in my example - you need to avoid the middle 20 times in 21 games, not 19 in 20.

But aside from that, raiders, what else was wrong? Of course, I agree that you always need to be statistically sure of the chances of falling in the middle - without that, you can't determine whether it's a value bet or not.

**BuddyBear** · 09-23-05, 08:17 PM

Guys: Is this a good middle or is there something I missing here. Sorry I am new to middling and I am doing my best to pick things up.

Cincinatti -3.5 (+127)
Chicago +3 (-110)

Thanks

**BuddyBear** · 09-23-05, 08:20 PM

Let's say I put

$1000 on Cincinatti -3.5 and they win I get back $1,270

and I put $1,100 on Chi +3 and they lose, I lose $1,100 but I would make $170 profit...right?

**BuddyBear** · 09-23-05, 08:22 PM

n/m i figured out what would happen if it pushes...yikes!

**raiders72001** · 09-23-05, 08:24 PM

BB- 3 hits 10% in the NFL. Now the math is up to you.

**BuddyBear** · 09-23-05, 08:26 PM

Thanks raiders...apparently all these stats courses I am taking at school aren't paying off very well

**raiders72001** · 09-23-05, 09:53 PM

But aside from that, raiders, what else was wrong?

only thing I disagreed with is taking a shot at that first polish middle at +100/+103 otherwise I agree.