Started my professional betting career relaunch ... August 15th 2012...

[usma1992]

I have posted here a few times over the course of the last few years. I'm an electrical engineer trying to create statistical models to predict the outcome of games. I have 5 models built now NBA(needs work last program built, College Football, NFL, College Basketball, and MLB.

This is year 3 for me. Last year, was an absolute disaster, I went through 10K in less than 7 weeks on college football. Money management was awful and I continued to bounce between College Football Spreads and Over/Unders... desperately trying to find the sweet spot.

Changes I made despite major upgrades to my programs and download times. My systems used to take me 2-3 hours to update, now they take me less than 10 minutes...

I also changed my money management style. Since I now have systems that run year round, I figure time is not that important. So I lowered my risk profile to 3% per my bankroll per bet.

Anyway, college football

Week1: +$500
Week2: -1000
Week3: -500
Week4: -2600(I only hit 29% on 42 games) That is just as hard to do as be successful.

After Week4: I completely revamped the system. Trying to find the relationships not only statistically but how they change based on the tempo of the game. Bottom line: My conclusion is that if you are betting over/unders it is all about time on the clock. If the game is extended based on incomplete passes and unsustained drives, they actually increase the points dramatically on the other side.

Week5: +500
Tried NFL for first time +500 also. NFL system doesn't seem to be making sense, the dynamic versus college ball is different, significantly primarily based on parity.

I start Week6 only betting over/unders with college wish me luck.

[Chi_archie]

good luck

how far back do your models use data from previous seasons for each sport?

[usma1992]

My conclusion is that if u r betting based on statiscal models for football u need at least 4 weeks worth of data and for basketball u need at least 7 weeks worth of data. If your interesting in tracking my progress... I will post this weeks picks for fun... on the handicapping forum site. Everytime I try to post in this forum I get chastised...

My goal is to produce a low risk hi reward program that can generate on average 55% winners...nothing more...

Anyway enjoy

A question I have for the board concerning money management.

My choices are to continue betting 3% per game and have 100% of my bankroll on the line as long as their are 33 games played or bet 5% of 80% of my bankroll and leave 20% in cash week. That way if I have a disaster week like 29% which I already had... the 20% bankroll in cash stays unaffected.

[usma1992]

Only 3 years because you have to have statistics based on that point in time not the beginning of season or end of season. Statisctics based on a point in time for instance Week 7 College Football 2009...are very hard to come by. If you have a site that can offer me statistics at an individual point of time, let me know.

[Vegas39]

You bet 42 games in one week u

[mrmarket]

Maybe your model(s) is/are a piece of shit? Best not to bet anything in that case.

[usma1992]

Yes I bet 42 games in one week... I am trying to approach the industry from a completely different direction. I don't mind you laughing at me at all. I am trying to create the mutual fund of sports betting. Limited risk with significant upside. Maybe it can't be done. Once I have the data... I can always go back and weight games and only bet 5 games a week like every other successful sports bettor. But what if I can devise a program that limits ur risk and still delivers.

Because I am approaching from a different view point doesn't make me a fool. I have read all the books and I know what professional bettors do. Regardless, I will type my journey and u can continue to laugh. Who knows... I think its 28 games this week or something like that... Enjoy...

[usma1992]

Apparently, my model is a piece of shit after Week 4. Even after spending 2-3 years creating it... it didn't work. But hitting 29% was the best thing that ever happened to the model... I gain far more from large losing weeks than I do winning weeks... I dramatically improved things and I believe I understand the interaction so much better than before. This week will either continue to demonstrate that or not.

Dave

[Vinnie Paz]

Good luck dave
Keep grinding away, math guys only ones who succeed

But in reality you shouldnt even be betting real $ on these yet

Maybe sit back & track the results first, its not a proven +ev system and clearly you could easily piss through all your BR. These models that are off even a bit will destroy you. Especially since they spit out so many games, which if your system if off, will crush you (eg--the 29% week).

Also post this in the think tank next time, might have a better chance of a somewhat helpful response.

[Vinnie Paz]

And if you are going to bet them, use 0.5% units or something until at the very least SOME consistency is shown

[usma1992]

Thank you Vinnie...I am actually heading back from Brazil from teaching, just for a day belief it or not, in an hour. This trip basically pays for my third try at college basketball which will start Dec 1st or so maybe closer to Dec 7th.

I understand ur thoughts regarding about not betting etc... But the truth for me personally is that I pay far more attention when money is on the line. It is probably a character flaw, but my guess is that most bettors feel the same. I am trying to change the model... and have put in significant effort to create something of value, but having money on the line even $100 helps me dramatically to concentrate and really try and watch what is taking place.

[usma1992]

Had another great week in college football hopefully it continues... working hard on NFL program... 64% on college... Enjoy Dave