DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
POINTSPREADS SOARING QUICKLY IN GAMES WITH BCS CONTENDERS
Though it's still midweek as I write this, we're seeing a lot of money coming in on big favorites in college football. Most notably, the big favorites who need to win to impress the pollsters and computers in the BCS race.
• Florida opened at -23 at Vanderbilt, and is up to -24
• Boise State opened at -31.5 vs. Utah State, and is up to -34.5
• Oklahoma opened at -25 at Texas A&M, and is up to -27
• Alabama opened at -2.5 at LSU, and is up to -3.5 as I write this. That's a bigger move than it seems because it crossed 3, which is a common final result in football. It takes A LOT of money to move -2.5 to -3.5.
• Texas opened at -24 vs. Baylor, and is up to -27.5
• USC opened at -18.5 vs. California, and is up to -21
That's just about everybody, isn't it? Who did I leave out? Penn State has seen a small tick toward Iowa. But, Penn State is undefeated. They can just win out and most likely play in the national championship game. Texas Tech has stayed right at -3 against Oklahoma State. Tech is another undefeated team that would probably play for the title if they won out (which would mean beating Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in addition to winning the Big 12 championship game). There's not pressure on them to run up the score. Plus, they're in a tough scheduling spot after the win over Texas. If the Red Raiders were playing a lesser team in an easier schedule spot, the line would have jumped for them too.
What's going on here? Why are all of the BCS teams seeing their lines moving UP when sharps are known to bet underdogs in a way that would bring the line down?
Here's the story:
• The sharps who bet underdogs aren't betting these big spread games right now because they know the lines are going to keep going up. That means there's literally NO money coming in on teams like Texas A&M or Utah State. There's no reason to bet those games now because you may get an extra field goal if you wait until kickoff.
• The sharps who like the favorites ARE betting now because this is the lowest the lines will ever be. The public loves betting favorites who are in "must win" situations and have motivation to run up the score. These lines are likely to keep going up. If you want to get the best number on a favorite, you have to act early in a game like this.
You regular readers know that most sharps are dog heavy. The kind of sharp who would bet a favorite at these spreads would be the math guys who play the games out on computer to project a final score. If they get a blowout, they don't mind laying 20 points, or 24 points. If it's somebody like Boise State playing at home they'll 32 or 33. I'm not saying a lot of guys do this. But, again, it's the ONLY money coming in on the game. The public doesn't bet until the weekend. Dog players are waiting. Only sharp favorite money is coming in right now.
• There's also a group of sharps who like to use games like this to set up middles. They know the public will bet favorites later in the week. That's as safe a prediction as there is to make. You get in early at a low number...you come in later at a high number. If the game lands between your numbers, you go 2-0. It's impossible to go 0-2 because you've got both ends covered. It's either 1-1 and you juice out (and many sharps find ways to play at reduced juice to make this an even more appealing option), or you go 2-0.
And, I should mention that many of these guys will be playing the underdogs for more money at the later lines. They'll "come back over the top" and maybe have two units on the dog plus the very high number, and one unit on the favorite minus the low number. They're +EV in their minds on both ends of the move. They've got more money on the better value in their mind (because sharps live off underdogs). And, they've got a chance to hit a middle.
So, what we're seeing with these early moves to the favorites are math guys betting on blowouts with high powered offenses, and "position takers" setting up middles.
The public will bet over the weekend, and is very likely to bet these big favorites even though the lines have moved. Most squares (public players are called squares here in Nevada) don't even follow the line moves. They just know they want to bet that Oklahoma or Boise State will kill somebody. Sharps will come in at the last second and hit the underdogs.
What should you do about these moves?
• If you're the type that likes favorites, you should probably pass these games. The value has been bet out by now anyway. Remember that oddsmakers KNEW this was coming and posted higher numbers than normal to start with. Yet, the lines STILL went up! You'd have to be crazy in my mind to lay these big numbers right now, let alone the numbers you'll be seeing over the weekend. If you like favorites, learn to act quickly and bet the openers.
• If you're the type that likes underdogs, wait until game day so you can get as big a return as possible after the line moves. Now, if you like Iowa or Oklahoma State, you way want to get some of the numbers you're seeing now just in case those don't move. Otherwise, the longer you wait, the more points you'll be getting.
• If you want to try to position yourself for middles, it's probably better to wait until NEXT week and bet the openers with the BCS contenders rather than trying to hit any th is weekend. You'll be getting 2-3 point middles in games with high spreads. That's not all that great. Sharps will be getting 5-9 point middles, which is a much better position.
I'm expecting this phenomenon to continue the rest of the month. We've got several very good teams who think they have a chance to make the big game. Many of these have high powered offenses...the type that can put up 40 or 50 points when things are going well. The public loves betting on teams like this! And, if there are some upsets of the current undefeated teams in the next couple of weeks (or THIS week!), it's going to be a madhouse!
Imagine what the rankings will look like if Penn State and Texas Tech were to get upset this weekend. You would have all of the following high octane offenses with one loss: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, USC, and...of course...Penn State and Texas Tech! They would still be alive even if they lost this weekend. Boise State would be undefeated, and still in position to make a case for itself with blowout victories. The winner of Thursday Night's TCU/Utah game will be looking to impress against lesser teams the rest of the month too.
Start thinking now about how you're going to take advantage of this the rest of the month. Focusing on underdogs and waiting for the best lines by itself is a great strategy. See if you can take further advantage of what you KNOW is going to happen by betting intelligently and anticipating the moves before they happen.
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
POINTSPREADS SOARING QUICKLY IN GAMES WITH BCS CONTENDERS
Though it's still midweek as I write this, we're seeing a lot of money coming in on big favorites in college football. Most notably, the big favorites who need to win to impress the pollsters and computers in the BCS race.
• Florida opened at -23 at Vanderbilt, and is up to -24
• Boise State opened at -31.5 vs. Utah State, and is up to -34.5
• Oklahoma opened at -25 at Texas A&M, and is up to -27
• Alabama opened at -2.5 at LSU, and is up to -3.5 as I write this. That's a bigger move than it seems because it crossed 3, which is a common final result in football. It takes A LOT of money to move -2.5 to -3.5.
• Texas opened at -24 vs. Baylor, and is up to -27.5
• USC opened at -18.5 vs. California, and is up to -21
That's just about everybody, isn't it? Who did I leave out? Penn State has seen a small tick toward Iowa. But, Penn State is undefeated. They can just win out and most likely play in the national championship game. Texas Tech has stayed right at -3 against Oklahoma State. Tech is another undefeated team that would probably play for the title if they won out (which would mean beating Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in addition to winning the Big 12 championship game). There's not pressure on them to run up the score. Plus, they're in a tough scheduling spot after the win over Texas. If the Red Raiders were playing a lesser team in an easier schedule spot, the line would have jumped for them too.
What's going on here? Why are all of the BCS teams seeing their lines moving UP when sharps are known to bet underdogs in a way that would bring the line down?
Here's the story:
• The sharps who bet underdogs aren't betting these big spread games right now because they know the lines are going to keep going up. That means there's literally NO money coming in on teams like Texas A&M or Utah State. There's no reason to bet those games now because you may get an extra field goal if you wait until kickoff.
• The sharps who like the favorites ARE betting now because this is the lowest the lines will ever be. The public loves betting favorites who are in "must win" situations and have motivation to run up the score. These lines are likely to keep going up. If you want to get the best number on a favorite, you have to act early in a game like this.
You regular readers know that most sharps are dog heavy. The kind of sharp who would bet a favorite at these spreads would be the math guys who play the games out on computer to project a final score. If they get a blowout, they don't mind laying 20 points, or 24 points. If it's somebody like Boise State playing at home they'll 32 or 33. I'm not saying a lot of guys do this. But, again, it's the ONLY money coming in on the game. The public doesn't bet until the weekend. Dog players are waiting. Only sharp favorite money is coming in right now.
• There's also a group of sharps who like to use games like this to set up middles. They know the public will bet favorites later in the week. That's as safe a prediction as there is to make. You get in early at a low number...you come in later at a high number. If the game lands between your numbers, you go 2-0. It's impossible to go 0-2 because you've got both ends covered. It's either 1-1 and you juice out (and many sharps find ways to play at reduced juice to make this an even more appealing option), or you go 2-0.
And, I should mention that many of these guys will be playing the underdogs for more money at the later lines. They'll "come back over the top" and maybe have two units on the dog plus the very high number, and one unit on the favorite minus the low number. They're +EV in their minds on both ends of the move. They've got more money on the better value in their mind (because sharps live off underdogs). And, they've got a chance to hit a middle.
So, what we're seeing with these early moves to the favorites are math guys betting on blowouts with high powered offenses, and "position takers" setting up middles.
The public will bet over the weekend, and is very likely to bet these big favorites even though the lines have moved. Most squares (public players are called squares here in Nevada) don't even follow the line moves. They just know they want to bet that Oklahoma or Boise State will kill somebody. Sharps will come in at the last second and hit the underdogs.
What should you do about these moves?
• If you're the type that likes favorites, you should probably pass these games. The value has been bet out by now anyway. Remember that oddsmakers KNEW this was coming and posted higher numbers than normal to start with. Yet, the lines STILL went up! You'd have to be crazy in my mind to lay these big numbers right now, let alone the numbers you'll be seeing over the weekend. If you like favorites, learn to act quickly and bet the openers.
• If you're the type that likes underdogs, wait until game day so you can get as big a return as possible after the line moves. Now, if you like Iowa or Oklahoma State, you way want to get some of the numbers you're seeing now just in case those don't move. Otherwise, the longer you wait, the more points you'll be getting.
• If you want to try to position yourself for middles, it's probably better to wait until NEXT week and bet the openers with the BCS contenders rather than trying to hit any th is weekend. You'll be getting 2-3 point middles in games with high spreads. That's not all that great. Sharps will be getting 5-9 point middles, which is a much better position.
I'm expecting this phenomenon to continue the rest of the month. We've got several very good teams who think they have a chance to make the big game. Many of these have high powered offenses...the type that can put up 40 or 50 points when things are going well. The public loves betting on teams like this! And, if there are some upsets of the current undefeated teams in the next couple of weeks (or THIS week!), it's going to be a madhouse!
Imagine what the rankings will look like if Penn State and Texas Tech were to get upset this weekend. You would have all of the following high octane offenses with one loss: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, USC, and...of course...Penn State and Texas Tech! They would still be alive even if they lost this weekend. Boise State would be undefeated, and still in position to make a case for itself with blowout victories. The winner of Thursday Night's TCU/Utah game will be looking to impress against lesser teams the rest of the month too.
Start thinking now about how you're going to take advantage of this the rest of the month. Focusing on underdogs and waiting for the best lines by itself is a great strategy. See if you can take further advantage of what you KNOW is going to happen by betting intelligently and anticipating the moves before they happen.
