May quit NFL

[Shonner]

Lines are too sharp
scrub refs influence game too much
individual match ups are too unpredictable
injury reports are unreliable
overall way too many variables to cap

[jjgold]

Scones take the points
Bet small

Teasers

[Bostongambler]

What???? It's like printing money eye shiner

[Shonner]

Scones take the points
Bet small

Teasers

Baseball is the best. Then tennis and ncaaf

[Shonner]

What???? It's like printing money eye shiner

[ChalkyDog]

If you are making money on baseball, finding value in football is childs play.

The amount of handicapping it takes, is so significantly less.

[leetreaper]

If you are making money on baseball, finding value in football is childs play.

The amount of handicapping it takes, is so significantly less.

100% true

[dice]

Stick to Money Lines.

[dmtrader]

just enjoy watching the games

it's cheaper

[agendaman]

jj is rite small bets spot plays teasers ml some cfb

[Linesensei]

Nfl has been sharp so far. The refs suck across the board, not influencing either side more than another.

[Joe Dogs]

When the players hear the officials taking about there fantasy league players on the field,not a good thing.

[qsilver335]

Baseball is by far the best play. At least the most consistent over the long season.

[InTheDrink]

If you are making money on baseball, finding value in football is childs play.

The amount of handicapping it takes, is so significantly less.

chalker youre a consistent winner in nfl?

ncaafb is miles easier just from the sheer volume of games every week

im with op

[jjgold]

No such thing as which sports is harder

All the same

Most liose period

[InTheDrink]

No such thing as which sports is harder

All the same

Most liose period

wrong

it is possible to know some college teams better than the handicappers...not possible in the nfl

not sure why thats so hard to understand

[seaborneq]

Lines are tight in the nfl. If you beat the books in the nfl you can beat them in anything.

[ChalkyDog]

chalker youre a consistent winner in nfl?

ncaafb is miles easier just from the sheer volume of games every week

im with op

Not to be a dick, but I can't say with any specificity. I was mealy a dart chucker in the NFL up until two years ago, now I convinced myself I know how to crunch certain numbers and look for certain edges in NFL to be profitable. I guarantee I am down lifetime, but over the last two years I have been + units, but no idea the winning percentage - and those units wont pay any bills - actually not even worth the time invested into making a powerful excel sheet.

It is also why I changed the word to football instead of NFL. I have been loads better in NCAAFB since working the numbers, numbers not even remotely as sharp (although, the lack of talent disparity and low schedule difference make the NFL lines even sharper due to lack of what I would call variance).

My game has always been NCAABK, but last year I didn't do very well - but cleaned up in NBA. Think at one point I was up 30 units in the playoffs alone.

I am better off playing soccer in a country I never heard of before picking an MLB winner. I am not at this level of dedication.

This is all recreational for me. If I counted on income from betting, I wouldn't have enough money to live in a hut in the 9th ward.

The only time I make decent sized bets are at the ass end of seasons. Bowl games and playoffs.

[ChalkyDog]

No such thing as which sports is harder

All the same

Most liose period

JJ, if you only chuck darts - this is true. I can attest as a certified dart chucker from my childhood. Look at a name, say "eh - that team is better because I think this pitcher is better than this pitcher" and make a play on it - easy right? You can't win capping like that - but whats the point then?

I am a guy who knows how to mess with words, all I get paid to do. Can't tell you how to find the area of a triangle, yet with about a good year and a ton of reading, I was able to create my own spreadsheet in football.

I couldn't do that in MLB, it would take this brain a lifetime to understand the metrics that are involved in the MLB.

[Cicima6709]

You are right, it is unpredictable.

However unpredictability can be predictable. What I mean by that is, sometimeswhen something is so unpredictable and either side can hit you can get some + odds, take it. Focus on the plays that give you a bit of edge. A coin flip is unpredictable too, but if I can get + odds on it, that unpredictability will lead to profit. Same with nfl. It's beatable.

[Ernie Mccracken]

Lines are tight in the nfl. If you beat the books in the nfl you can beat them in anything.

Impossible for any of us to beat the books. Why try?

Possible to beat Landers, Lakairboy, and the rest of the irrational public. Books have been super sharp already this year and are capitalizing on all the dipshits who overreact after watching 30 hours of espn talking heads circlejerk over whoever had a good game over the weekend. There's a dozen channels and an infinite number of websites who do nothing but create noise. This creates inefficient lines for at least 2-3 games every week.

[Cicima6709]

Baseball is by far the best play. At least the most consistent over the long season.

Agreed. Sad that it's coming to an end. It's the only sport where you can get a very nice sample size and rely on simple math. Just a batter vs a pitcher. Nfl has waaaay more variables and is the toughest sport to beat, but you can still find edges.

[Smoke]

The syndicate is winning at NFL

You're a square

[ChalkyDog]

You are right, it is unpredictable.

However unpredictability can be predictable. What I mean by that is, sometimeswhen something is so unpredictable and either side can hit you can get some + odds, take it. Focus on the plays that give you a bit of edge. A coin flip is unpredictable too, but if I can get + odds on it, that unpredictability will lead to profit. Same with nfl. It's beatable.

Despite my name, I can't take a dog in MLB without thinking I am a goddamn moron. Literally, a +112 dog, is a long shot.

Got buried chasing big juice every time.

Only money I made all year was taking the over when Collmenter was pitching for the dbags.

[GunShard]

You don't know how to fade the public.

[wantitall4moi]

NFL is for suckers anyway. But lines being 'sharp'? There have been 32 games thus far less than 10 of them have had the scores within a TD of the spread. 11 of them have been 2 touchdowns away. So I wouldnt call these lines very good.

I cant argue with the reffing comments though.

[nic9212]

just enjoy watching the games

it's cheaper

after gambling so long, this is hard to do

[Vinnie Paz]

Lines are tight in the nfl. If you beat the books in the nfl you can beat them in anything.

This

Theres a reason limits are way higher
Most pro guys will all say nfl = toughest grind

Without a proven model dont bother

[Goat Milk]

No such thing as which sports is harder

All the same

Most liose period

NBA if you are a master of the game you will win 60% of bets and make money in the playoffs every year

You can be a master of mlb but how can you cap an mlb game.

NBA is all about matchups. MLB you have to rely on stats and math models. The best team in the league can lose to the worst team in the league on any given day. That doesn't happen in the NBA.

A guy is one ball hop away from hitting 3 singles versus going 0-4 at bat. How can you cap that? The ball fall 2 feet further or shorter and its a hit and runs are scored.

[greenhippo]

The syndicate is winning at NFL

You're a square

No coincidence that on first two sundays of the season i have two trophy badges.

We are winning

[TheCentaur]

NBA if you are a master of the game you will win 60% of bets and make money in the playoffs every year

You can be a master of mlb but how can you cap an mlb game.

NBA is all about matchups. MLB you have to rely on stats and math models. The best team in the league can lose to the worst team in the league on any given day. That doesn't happen in the NBA.

A guy is one ball hop away from hitting 3 singles versus going 0-4 at bat. How can you cap that? The ball fall 2 feet further or shorter and its a hit and runs are scored.

Yeah but i would argue football and basketball are games of inches even moreso. A 7 pt spread in football or 6 pt spread in basketball is huge, but think of how many tds every week come down to a toe drag just in the nick of time or not in the nick of time, or instead of 2 3pters going in they go in and out.

[jbart28]

Just take your roll and buy gold and silver tomorrow. Seriously. Buy it at a 60/40 split. 40% silver.

Watch the election. If Obama wins, hold it you just became a fuking 1%'er.

If Romney wins, sell sell sell. You still will make money, but you don't want to hold it because the economy is going to get better and precious medals will decrease since Bernake will be shit canned and the fed will stop printing fukin paper

[ChalkyDog]

Just take your roll and buy gold and silver tomorrow. Seriously. Buy it at a 60/40 split. 40% silver.

Watch the election. If Obama wins, hold it you just became a fuking 1%'er.

If Romney wins, sell sell sell. You still will make money, but you don't want to hold it because the economy is going to get better and precious medals will decrease since Bernake will be shit canned and the fed will stop printing fukin paper

Did you really just recommend to gamblers, who put money on a game simply for the action, to invest in precious medals and watch their money grow? I am sure most would rather watch paint dry in some uptight french museum.

[greenhippo]

I own some physical silver bullion myself, will be buying regularly until it hits $39-40 then sitting on it for a few years or until it hits $50 again. I got real lucky, my first go around was buying it up in Fall of 2008 at about $13.50 an ounce. Shit just sits in my closet right now.

[ChalkyDog]

I own some physical silver bullion myself, will be buying regularly until it hits $39-40 then sitting on it for a few years or until it hits $50 again. I got real lucky, my first go around was buying it up in Fall of 2008 at about $13.50 an ounce. Shit just sits in my closet right now.

Yeah, I cannot get into it - not because it is a terrible thing, but because I had a ton of money, and desperately wanted to invest most or all in gold around 2004/5 and didn't. Just forgot about it for a long time, picked up a paper and saw the price for an ounce now and I about crapped myself where I stood.

Now I can't, feel like I am a sucker.