Can someone help me hedge this bet? (I'll give ya points)

[mikey207]

Longtime lurker here guys.

Anyway, I played a $5 pick 'em sheet yesterday. The pool is $4,050, and I'm in the final 5.

1 guy is on Denver, and there are 4 of us on Atlanta with the following numbers: 50, 51(me), 54, and 60.

As you can see, I can only win with an Atlanta win and a total of 51 or 52.

Is there anyway I can hedge this? I'll dish some points to anyone that could help me.

Thanks.

[BigDeem5]

Well, there are different options.

Stick with Atlanta, and Just play Denver for About $500 ml.

Parlay Atlanta and Over for $500
Parlay Atlanta and Under for $500

[greenhippo]

Just to clarify, Atlanta has to win and if they do the total score has to be 51 or 52 (not 53?) or you lose?

If that's the case there is no way to hedge here, Denver could win, total could be any number between 40 and 70.

[greenhippo]

Or listen to bigdeem

[benjy]

Well, there are different options.

Stick with Atlanta, and Just play Denver for About $500 ml.

Parlay Atlanta and Over for $500
Parlay Atlanta and Under for $500

Not a bad option if you have a book that will let you play a correlated parlay.

If you have a book that lets you buy/sell points (like Pinny) you could take under 50.5 for -116ish and over 52.5 for +110ish.

[nvrlose37]

Is there any prize for second or third? Im feeling if not, you are pretty fuckked, 27-24 or 28-24 being some of the only scores that will save you.

[mikey207]

I have 5Dimes and Bookmaker.

Yea I just realized I'd get plowed if Denver won.

Thanks for the insight so far, guys.

[Jrod124]

31-21 could be the final, let it ride its $5

[Justin3587]

To be honest, there is no accurate way to hedge this. This is one of those things you need to ride out and hope that luck is on your side. I wish you the best of luck. For the record, I took the total score at 53, so I am pretty sure it will be somewhere around your number, hopefully you are the lucky guy.

[mikey207]

Under 51.5 is -118

Over 52.5 is +113

at 5D

[mikey207]

Looks like I'm going to let it ride, boys.

Thanks for the input

[Jrod124]

Looks like I'm going to let it ride, boys.

Thanks for the input

Good Luck bud

[mynameismud]

so $5 pay over 4k? must be a huge fukking pool.

[mikey207]

so $5 pay over 4k? must be a huge fukking pool.

It's a popular pick 'em sheet that the bars run here in Portland, ME.

There's also a $10 one that has pools between 7-10K a week.

Oh and my losses were on New England and Dallas, if anyone was wondering. I know it's hindsight, but 95% of the time I would have taken Seattle in that same situation. Oh well.

[Oddz On]

A. 1500 on Denver ML (1900 return)

B. 500 parlay atl/under (1695 return)

C. 500 parlay atl/over (1695 return)

D. your ticket wins


With A-C bets placed, profit goes as


A. 900 profit

B. 695 profit

C. 695 profit

D. 1505 profit


in the lighning strikes possibility of an ATL win 52 point total profit= 2200 profit

[crackerjack]

I wish there was some way to hedge as I hate to see you lose your $5 but alas there is not... Guy who picked Denver is feeling pretty good.

[yahoonino]

the over is a look atlanta 35 denver 17 good luck

[Blax0r]

Under 51.5 is -118

Over 52.5 is +113

at 5D

Assuming these over/under odds, +137 for Denver, and -147 ATL, you can't hedge out profitably at this stage. You'd need to place a position on ATL/Under, ATL/Over, and DEN ML to cover all scenarios, and there's no bet allocation that will yield a guaranteed profit.

Riding it out is the right move IMO.

[Blax0r]

A. 1500 on Denver ML (1900 return)

B. 500 parlay atl/under (1695 return)

C. 500 parlay atl/over (1695 return)

D. your ticket wins


With A-C bets placed, profit goes as


A. 900 profit

B. 695 profit

C. 695 profit

D. 1505 profit


in the lighning strikes possibility of an ATL win 52 point total profit= 2200 profit

So if B wins, wouldn't your net winnings look like this:

1695 (winnings, although it seems a little high) - 5 (pool bet) - 2000 (hedge bet on denver and other parlay) = $310 loss?

I think (assuming the odds you posted are possible), the way to hedge out is 1786.76 on DEN, 922.55 on ATL/U, 922.55 on ATL/O. This would guarantee $413 of profit.

[Brutus84]

IF B or C win and you dont win the pool, you lose money. Blaxor is right... Win 1695 but lose 1500 +500 +5 lol

[mikey207]

A field goal short.

God dammit.