Handicapping the pitching here (Burnes v. Stroman) Milwaukee's Burnes is not just a staff ace, but a league ace, Chicago's Stroman steps into the staff ace role, even though posting decent numbers last season is clearly overmatched (on paper)
It's a bullpen game now too.
Bullpens make up on the average of 40 percent of staff innings pitched.
Only a select few aces pitch into the eight inning now, starters are generally 'five and fly' these days.
Former Tiger rotation starter castoff Michael Fullmer steps into the closer role for the Cubs, and I have total distrust in him. Bader is no longer the Brewers closer, he left, Devin Williams closes for the Brewers, was outstanding, stellar in 65 games last season, eye popping 96 K's in 60 IP's, ERA of 1.93, 26 holds, 15 saves, proved he can hold leads and save games, just stellar across the board numbers, a little high on the walks, which in not a big concern considering he doesn't yield the gopher ball, only two balls hit pitched left the park last season.
The supporting casts (setup men/middle relievers) favor Brewers as well.
Brewers have the edge in this one in starting pitching, relief pitching, and lineup.
I don't want to tell anyone how to handicap a baseball game, your money, your investment, I don't want somebody to lose because I was on the wrong side, these are just writeups as I see it, but if you're into the MLB six month haul, and it's a grind, believe that, I've been writing MLB for years, it'll behoove you to handicap every teams bullpens, and before wagering on a game make sure you're aware as to who is available and who is not.
Like I said, 72 percent of the innings are not eaten by starters any longer, neither are one third, last season on the average 40 percent of all the innings pitched were thrown by relievers.
Nothings changed, it's 60/40 now.
Generally I'll wager a run line only on the road with an ace or superior starter going for me.
Why on the road and not home?
Simple, the road team is guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, a home team is not.
Many at time that ninth inning at bat has salvages my bet.
The road Brewers on the run line is an option if you don't want to lay the -138
I'm generally a spot underdog player, I don't like laying anything over -133, or 4 to win 3 if you will, however I like this play.
Brewers -138
(+122 run line is in consideration as well)
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