[A Quant]

Originally posted on 08/15/2018:

I am a numbers guy. I want data, data, data, and more data. I can't have enough data points.

How many of you guys know a buddy who tells ya, "I got TEAM A +2"? Or +2.5?

And you look at him like he's a little crazy?

Or how many of you actually bet those numbers?

I want you to think about this the next time you do.

For purposes of this, I am only discussing the 130 1-A teams playing other 1-A teams. I am giving you a 5 year snap. There can be variances over 1 year, but 5 years can give you a fairly decent snap.

Now, another important distinction. This thread focuses on the closing #, or the Saturday morning number as almost all rec bettors play late, few if any, develop power numbers and hunt for the opener. And, hopefully this can help a rec bettor or two.

Lastly, remember. It's about value. Value. Anything to give you the smallest of edges to earn coin.

From 2013 thru 2017 there were 2832 games in 1-A. Of those 2832 games, there were 265 games (9.3%) where the close was 2.5 or less. That's 9% of your available games that close at 2.5 points or less.

Of those 2832 games, 4 of them ended with the underdog covering with either +1.5, +2, or +2.5. That is .14% of the total games. In other words, 99.86% of the time, if you took the +1.5, +2, +2.5, the numbers would make absolutely no difference whatsoever.... MAKING ML plays at that range the value play.

Further, you're leaving cash on the table.

Of those 265 games that closed at +1.5, +2, +2.5, the underdog won straight-up 150 times (56.6%) of the time.

Within the ML being anywhere from +101, +105, +109 for the those spread numbers-- the value is clearly in betting the ML.

Okay, what's my point?

A lot of rec bettors feel comfy with getting a few points.

Don't do it.

Play the ML any time you're considering taking a few points this college football season.

On the other side of the coin?

If you're betting the favorite at -2.5, -2, or -1.5? Tread carefully.

Dogs are living large at these numbers. Over the last 5 years, you would have been crushed betting ML favorites at these numbers/prices.

Add ons:

There is no statistical difference between home/road in these numbers. Nothing that would indicate a patter over the last 5 years.

Find the number

[A Quant]

I am bumping my own thread because there are some guys who don't get it.

DO NOT BET +1, +1.5, +2, +2.5 in college football.

If you like the dog at the number- BET THE MONEYLINE!!!!!!!!!!!!

[drfader]

Just read your thread Quant. Good stuff. Where do you scrub your data from If I may ask?

Any luck with database and scraping tools?