PB (4/13): NBA Playoff Openers - The Game Inside The Game : Nominated Post

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Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27715533'>posted</a> on 04/13/2018:

Professor - Interesting to read your keys to each NBA Series. Very thought provoking.

Of the 8 first round series - I believe not all 8 favorites will win. I wonder which underdogs you give the best chance of pulling an upset. Indiana seemed to create issues for the Cavs during the regular season and the Cavs inability to get defensive stops makes this year the most challenging for LeBron to return to the NBA Finals for the 9th (!) straight year.

I thought maybe some Pelicans, but not sure how they have been doing it - except for having one of the 5 best players on the planet. Is there an underdog we can really watch with a chance - throwing it out to the group as well as the Prof as to which of the 8 series will the favorite not win?

This afternoon, something you taught me is compelling me to wager a small ticket on the Atlanta Braves. Baseball being baseball and the Braves are actually playing pretty well - a good lineup and although Anibel Sanchez can be batting practice - he is currently in ok form and should not be a -200 underdog to a Cubs teams that took it's licks vs Pittsburgh and is missing it's big stick in the middle Anthony Rizzo.

2-1 odds, I may just play the first five or split my ticket, but Sanchez hasn't fallen down the rabbit hole yet (he will later) and the Braves are currently bashing the ball during the day. Check the splits.

Also Zack Grienke should not be an underdog tonight at Dodger Stadium. He loves pitching off that mound - check career at Dodger Stadium and the Diamondbacks are in better form as well as I'm not a Maeda fan and Roberts isn't doing him any favors yo-yo-ing him from starter to reliever to starter in first 10 days of season.

I don't think Zack felt the Dodgers tried hard enough to keep him after his amazing season for LA and I think he pitches with a chip on his shoulder when he returns and you are getting the better pitcher and team in better form for plus money.

I can't find an underdog in the first round that is coming close to ringing the chimes, and part of the issue is the nature of the markets. At playoff time there are folks that will take a stab with some of the big underdogs for a long-shot payout, but the general marketplace finds bankroll difficulties in backing the favorites. Hence a lot of these prices get shortened a bit from what the true realities are. I believe there will be opportunities in the game-by-game flow, but I don't hear a "bark" yet.

There will be a small piece of Atlanta in pocket, because the Cubs are simply being over-priced - this is not an imposing lineup. But only small because of the number of sliders Yu Darvish has been throwing, going from 16.8% in 2016 to 24.6% in 2017, and now 36.7 through his first two starts. I put this from Wilson Contreras into the files, which lets me know to watch more closely:

“He had three types of sliders. One to get ahead, the other was to get a second strike and then one to punch out."

Arizona will go into pocket at +120 or better, another case of the outcomes for a pitcher not reflecting his pitches - Greinke is carrying an 0-1/5.06 through 2 starts despite commanding his various pitches as well as he ever has, with the current rates in K%, BB% and SWS% all career-bests. Perhaps some folks are alarmed by some pop missing from his fastball, but the changing of speeds and location of his other offerings has been impeccable.