Originally posted on 01/04/2018:

Off to Frisco in the morning for the game so I'll provide some FCS championship thoughts today. The line isn't available in may places right now, but seems to be lined around Bison -4, o/u 48. I'm really disappointed at where the line is, as I was hoping that the fluky JMU blowout of SDSU would help make this line somewhere between pick and 3.

The Bison lost both starting CBs in the semi-final game, which is a big part of the reason why I'm happy that JMU beat SDSU. I don't think JMU will be able to exploit that the same way SDSU had potential to. I trust Klieman to come up with a game plan that will limit the damage the JMU can do with those injuries. The Bison need their QB to pick up yards and first downs running the ball, which he is more than capable of doing, because the Bison WRs will not win many man-to-man battles with the JMU DBs. JMU has a very good defense overall, but hasn't been up against the type of running attack the Bison have (which is much better than the injury riddled team JMU defeated last year). The Bison do a good job of designing passing routes off of their dominant run game, which I'm hopeful will negate the lack of separation the receivers are likely to run into.

To ensure this post doesn't get too long, I'll get to the point. I don't think there is value in betting NDSU at -4, but if it goes down to 3 and especially below 3, I think the Bison are a good bet. If the first half line opens at 24, I think the under first half is also a decent bet. Both defenses are really good and prior to the quarterfinal round of the playoffs, the JMU defense had hardly allowed any first quarter points all year.

And GO BISON!