Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27138148'>posted</a> on 08/10/2017:

The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning 30 or 31 points to Ottawa’s 24 or 25 points.

The stacking forecast has Edmonton winning with 32 or 33 points to Ottawa’s 23 or 24 points. Unsophisticated methods of comparing the teams give Edmonton as much as a 6 point edge with 57 or 58 points but the public gauge shows Edmonton winning by 1 point in a 55 point game.

In my opinion, the Total is pretty sharp here, sidelining the sharp forecast, and sits slightly under some of the public numbers, drawing that public support as Edmonton has paid 5 consecutive over bets. This is countered by influential money that sought the UNDER in the pregame spread from last Friday, failed, and likely seeks the a little bit of the same.

The point spread opened a little low here as the books sought to compensate for a market seeking both an Edmonton loss as well as an Ottawa win. The sharp forecast and stacking forecast point to the favorite against the spread but the line has moved away from the predictions.

The public tickets (not the gauge) shows to be on Edmonton, of course, but the line drop from -2.5 to -2 shouldn’t be characterized as classic reverse line movement as it applies to the point spread. It’s less likely that a lot of “sharp action” hit the +2.5 but rather that the books were taking different types of action on the upset moneyline.

This is the first game of the week and money will be steered. Last week we saw some minor market indicators come to fruition and some minor settlement immediately occur. After such settlement, and with a little regret with not having the UNDER in last week’s final game, I am passing on any bold plays here.

Ottawa very well could get the win tonight, it’s that type of market, but there’s not enough for me to counter the sharp forecast.

With some influential bettors sidelined and the public sold on the Over, the UNDER play has some merit here. The Totals market has shown other indicators of a turn from the recent shakeout and an Under here would go in line with that thinking. Like I said, some influential money is hitting the UNDER, and its one reason the line has had trouble holding at 56, pulling back to 55.5. That money is sharp for a reason and should be taken into consideration.

I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on the UNDER, coming on to a pass from the sharp forecast, and one reason is the generation of both Over and Under activity on this Total, while still sitting right at the sharp forecast. This condition throws a negative factor into the decision making ratings, and sheds light into some of the environmental factors I often mention.

I think, for both the side and Total, it’s best to watch this one and see where the chips fall.