[oddtodd]

Originally posted on 02/22/2015:

I just read a short story post of complaints but not one sentence in that entire post from OddTodd was about the fights or any kind of fighter breakdown, betting value, etc.. on this upcoming event...

A waste of a read as far as I'm concerned... That's what I think OddTodd...

Lead by example oddtodd, post a pick, a breakdown, a fight matchup, contribute with substance, enlighten us all, etc..

I will be posting more detailed analysis, breakdowns and thoughts for upcoming cards. Hopefully starting with 184. It takes time to do this seriously and I had a busy week leading up to this card. If I'm going to post about a specific fight, i'd like to watch the last 3 fights of both competitors and see if I feel value on either side or on any prop before just hitting the keyboard and providing possibly false or misleading beliefs. The hope is not to wow anyone with my insights and gambling genius and yes, my first post was delivered with a little too much grandeur. Possibly the assessment on the forum and MMA capping in general (not that ive found much better for any other sport) will prove to only alienate rather than inspire, and leading by example may have been the way to go. But the end goal is still the same. We can't do this alone and I'm not sure how helpful the current format is for turning a profit.. Jibby, I do appreciate the direction and information pooling that you do provide as is.

I believe in qualitative analysis with regard to MMA betting. I want to see if anyone else who has just watched these fights with an eye for the specifics agrees or disagrees with the qualities/deficits I am seeing and my opinion on what they'll mean in an upcoming fight. As is, I am seeing very little of that kind of discussion going on in this forum. Case in point, the post above me of "Mir" and the countless others like it. - no offense meant. When they are accompanied with a detailed record it can be a good indicator about the quality of the pick.. but what if the reasons someone with a fantastic track record provides for a pick immediately strike you as false or are incompatible with your view on that fight? Both parties can learn from such a discussion.

Briefly, for this card:

The fight that has me the most interested on this card is Barboza vs Johnson.. I feel that Johnson has quite a bit of value at his current odds (around 2.6) given how his confidence, speed, and power have shown to be the recipe to defeat Barboza in the past. MJ also seems to improve each fight which is a surprisingly rare quality that I like alot in a fighter. Barboza is particularly effective from the outside and keeps distance through a variety of kicks which are also probably the most powerful (with pettis) in the division. If you aren't afraid to go shot for shot with him on the inside you can have success more often than not and MJ has never been stopped and I can only remember seeing him dropped by a punch once (against Castillo). However, I am a bit worried about MJs time off and didn't get to rewatching his fights or Edsons.. So I'm not confident and can't remember clearly what kind of striker Barboza really is when he's backing up. I'd prefer to have watched his fights with Cerrone and Castillo again.

For the rest of this card, I fell in love with the favorites. I have taken Khabilov, Alcantara (as well as by sub and will likely make a play on him in rd 1 as well as he always comes storming out of the gates), Macario and Cody Gibson on a combination of parlays and individual bets. Unfortunately, I bet these earlier in the week based off of instinct, a few notes from earlier fights and pasting stuff together from some of the more detailed posters on Sherdog - the whole forum is a shitshow yes, but there Betting only topics are actually well detailed with guys like EZ Flyer, MMA Goodfella and many others providing indepth thoughts. Since I bet these fights though the odds have all dropped significantly. For Alcantara I got him at 1.22(now 1.14), Khabilov it was 1.33 (on will hill, now 1.2) and Cody Gibson was at 1.5. At their current odds I would actually say they dont have any value and with the question marks surrounding Khabilov's cardio, camp issues and Martins overall solid game I may even like a shot at the underdog.

Lines tend to have a serious drift in MMA so I feel like making the right decisions early in the week before the rest of the betting public jumps on the bandwagon can make a serious difference in profitability.. Then again, I haven't done any work quantifying the difference in correlation between the opening and closing lines and the outcome of a fight and recently the line movements favoring Thatch and Gustaffson turned out to be fools gold and cost me most of my profits on those events. Maybe I will attempt this correlation analysis later this year as I am currently taking courses in Data Science through Coursera which has shown me some pretty useful tools on how to accomplish this with enough data to reach a level of statistical significance. Anyways, beating the closing line can't hurt if you are also confident with the picks.