Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=17024246'>posted</a> on 12/05/2012:
Basically the idea of key numbers is more important in football. Obviously getting spreads that cover 3 and 7 is important. There's no point in betting 3.5 when you can wait a bit to see if it'll move to 3. Same goes for 7. If you're betting the dog, getting 7.5 is HUGE. Same with other numbers like 4 and 10 in football.
In basketball, it's a little more complicated so you have to rely more on statistics. I've shown you a sample of I think it's 1400 games and how often it has landed on those numbers. Obviously, 5,6,7,8 is important because they're when teams usually stop fouling or there just isn't enough time left. Now, I stated that I would argue that 8 is typically off of backdoor covers. Not often do I see games end at 8 after a close game+fouling.
For 5,6,7 it's simple, the more numbers you can cover, the better so keep that in mind when you see a 5.5 and which way the line is leaning.
The most important number though in my opinion is 2. Any game that should be a close game, getting the number 2 is huge. If you look at the Denver game, that 2 point spread could've easily came into play. That's just my opinion though. You can interpret the statistics how you want.
Basically the idea of key numbers is more important in football. Obviously getting spreads that cover 3 and 7 is important. There's no point in betting 3.5 when you can wait a bit to see if it'll move to 3. Same goes for 7. If you're betting the dog, getting 7.5 is HUGE. Same with other numbers like 4 and 10 in football.
In basketball, it's a little more complicated so you have to rely more on statistics. I've shown you a sample of I think it's 1400 games and how often it has landed on those numbers. Obviously, 5,6,7,8 is important because they're when teams usually stop fouling or there just isn't enough time left. Now, I stated that I would argue that 8 is typically off of backdoor covers. Not often do I see games end at 8 after a close game+fouling.
For 5,6,7 it's simple, the more numbers you can cover, the better so keep that in mind when you see a 5.5 and which way the line is leaning.
The most important number though in my opinion is 2. Any game that should be a close game, getting the number 2 is huge. If you look at the Denver game, that 2 point spread could've easily came into play. That's just my opinion though. You can interpret the statistics how you want.