Originally posted on 03/21/2012:

Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
Good post catch...

a few pages back people were discussing bet-sizing (as %bankroll) ideas/methods...i know from a previous post, that you managed to patiently grow a smallish roll into something like quadruple its initial amount...

could you weigh in on the sorts of things that helped you do it?
Nothing special fitguy...I mean conservative bankroll plays, mainly 1-2 units...trying not to over commit to any one play...perseverance to value and getting edges...being able to read line movements before they happen, 65-75% correct line movement reads.

Watch LTA...mostly one unit plays..occasional multi units...takes an occasional shot...some plays jump off the page at him in the morning or night before...some are sitting waiting for just a half a point move before game time. Often if he doesn't get the move he seeks and then he lays off the play. All that hard work down the drain over a half a point. This rings especially true for me in football where you must get your number or layoff the play.

If you want to last and be a player in the game, you gotta learn to think like the bookie thinks, not like the player thinks. It is very hard when all you have ever done is bet. I ran book in LA many years ago...had a good sized organization. In all those years I never had a long time winner...never, not one, nada, none.

Over time, they all lost...movie and tv stars were the worst...ego business men that win at everything they did lost...poor bankroll management (look up "gambler's ruin", the main reason 90+% of sports gamblers lose), teasers (having to win two games instead of just one), parlays, chasing when down, increasing your bets when you lose instead of decreasing them. They were all just one bad losing streak away from destruction and then they have to sit on the sidelines and rebuild their bankroll.

You see fitguy, sports bettors only think of their plays, but bookies (your true enemy...your only competition) only think of the bettors plays, not themselves. They wait for you to bet and then react, they do not make the initial choice expect they get to set the line (again based mostly on their read of you as a player).

Lastly, variance..."the devil within". For over 5 years I played some mean poker and got away from sports betting. When you become good at poker you learn to totally understand and accept variance. All it takes is about a year of runner-runner suckouts on the turn and river and you understand that anything can happen with probability and mathematics. Yea, I get pissed off still when the player does not hit their free throw at the end of the game to cover. But there were hundreds of moments during the course of the game that were equally as important for your loss. I have learned to get over it mostly in a matter of minutes. I try to never let it affect my game.

As a book, I would have never liked to get a player like LTA. Smart, disciplined, puts in the time, student of the game...wouldn't play if he could not get an edge at the sport. This is a player you do not want to bet into you. Makes him a good handicapper to follow though.

I hope this gives you some food for thought.

BOL as always...nice night again LTA.