Originally posted on 03/10/2012:

Good answers here. It's even probably actually closer to 54% or 53ish even but these are fine and I agree. Funny thing is people come on here and flip out after a bad night, etc... It gets real bad when a capper loses a bigger play which in reality it still only holds a 55% edge longterm.

I have no idea what these people think when they see a bigger selection, that it's not suppose to lose? or that it's suppose to win at a 70% rate? That will never happen ever. No one is that smart and for sure it's not going to happen in these main stream sports or this late in a year either. No one has the secret formula to win at that rate over the longterm but the good news once again is you don't need to win 70% to be ahead either.

Bottom line even the best cappers and best plays all end up losing 45 times out of 100. Most need to remember that the next time a guy they follow has an 0-3 night because everyone that does have them, it doesn't mean the guy sucks or is a dart thrower it's just called variance just like a 3-0 doesn't mean anything either.

In fact it's almost impossibile to tell a winning player from a losing one unless you are watching very closely and keeping records, etc... It amazes me how emotional people get over a few picks. It's all one long game at the end of the day. The edge is so small that you must do things almost perfect just to have one. All about having realistic expectations of 54% winners. Treat it like a longterm investment and it makes this all less stressfull also. Just my opinion.