Trying out a new evaluation model...

p19101 · 09-17-12, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by p19101

Colts +3 -107
Panthers +2.5 -107
Jags +7.5 -119
Rams +3.5 -102
Ravens +3 -120
Seahawks +3 +112

Colts +3 -107 WIN
Panthers +2.5 -107 WIN
Jags +7.5 -119 LOSS
Rams +3.5 -102 WIN
Ravens +3 -120 WIN
Seahawks +3 +112 WIN

Will get back later in the week to see what this model comes up with for week 3.

p19101 · 09-17-12, 11:11 AM

For week 3, at this moment only 2 games qualify. I will run it again later in the week when lines have moved...

In order of strength:

Panthers +1 +100
Seahawks +3.5 -113

statdude · 09-17-12, 01:38 PM

Nice

statdude · 09-17-12, 01:39 PM

can you provide any background on your model?

p19101 · 09-17-12, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by statdude

can you provide any background on your model?

Basically a base evaluation of each team before the season. Then a formula for how to value the performance each week and that is added or subtracted to the base evaluation. Then take into account the homefield adv, taking into account traveling east, west, short rest and so on. My model then suggest what the spread should be. Not going into any specific details. Keep in mind there is no human interaction in this model except the pre season evaluation which will always be subjective to a point.

I decided that anything deviating 2 points from the actual spread would be a bet.

Some other examples of what my model suggest for spreads this week:

Patriots +2.5
Steelers -4.5
Bills -4
Bengals +4
Jets -3
Chiefs +8.5
Titans +3
Dolphins +3
Browns +4

All of which are very close to actual spreads.

EDIT: Model does not take injuries into account. Team strength was based on what was available at week 1. For example Ravens strength should increase slightly when Suggs returns and Chargers when they get healthy at RB. So one have to check manually for key injuries. I might try to incorporate this in the model at some point but not really sure how to do that right now.

musky123 · 09-17-12, 04:06 PM

Very interesting

p19101 · 09-17-12, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by musky123

Very interesting

Only time will tell, I will run this all season and we'll see what happens

p19101 · 09-18-12, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by p19101

For week 3, at this moment only 2 games qualify. I will run it again later in the week when lines have moved...

In order of strength:

Panthers +1 +100
Seahawks +3.5 -113

No futher plays after the final lines were released.

p19101 · 09-20-12, 12:03 PM

Panthers is now down to -2.5 at Pinny and juiced at that, My model suggested just that, -2.5

Ryermkd · 09-20-12, 02:09 PM

so you only play the games that have deviated 2 points from your model. It appears your only take points? I have yet to see you pick a game where you choose a team laying down points. Is there reasoning?

p19101 · 09-22-12, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Ryermkd

so you only play the games that have deviated 2 points from your model. It appears your only take points? I have yet to see you pick a game where you choose a team laying down points. Is there reasoning?

Until now model has not come up with any team laying points deviating 2 or more points, until now that is. However here is the first ones:

Week 3

Bears -7 -104
Redskins -3 -109
Panthers +1 +100 LOSS
Seahawks +3.5 -113
Jets -1 -108

p19101 · 09-25-12, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by p19101

Until now model has not come up with any team laying points deviating 2 or more points, until now that is. However here is the first ones:

Week 3

Bears -7 -104 WIN
Redskins -3 -109 LOSS
Panthers +1 +100 LOSS
Seahawks +3.5 -113 WIN
Jets -1 -108 WIN

Season record after 2 weeks betting is 8-3

p19101 · 09-25-12, 01:28 PM

Week4

Ravens -13 -104
Chargers +1 -104
Jets +4 -102
Cardinals -6.5 -107
Broncos -6.5 -105
Falcons -7 -103
Bears +3.5 +101