Over the last couple of years betting trends were never more helpful than in the preseason. Coaching trends usually had strong correlations with their approach to the games and certain games were pretty much free money. Yet, more and more I'm seeing traditional trends go the way of the Dodo.
LT wrote a good article outlining the preseason here ..
..but things haven't gone according to plan. Shanahan, Tomlin, Schwartz, and McCarth are no longer blind follows just like Reid is no longer a blind fade in the NFLX. Totals in Week 3 historically averaged 39 points, but when they were posted this year they were blindly bet over across the board. The days of backups not being able to come in and move the chains are long long gone. So far this preseason overs are hitting at 57% clip.
He wrote another article about betting "unders" in Week 1 of the regular season...
The same thinking took place last season and unders were a popular trend to ride entering the season, but it was overs that reigned supreme and the overs continued to hit until books properly adjusted weeks later. The notion that "defenses start ahead of the offenses" is dinosaur thinking. The new CBA has put such a restriction on tackling and full pads hitting in practice that defenses are not progressing as well as yesteryear. Combine that with new rules restricting defenses in the games along with the ability for new QBs to make an easier transition into the NFL and it's no surprise that "overs" are the new way to go.
This isn't a personal attack on LT cuz I respect his capping, but it's getting harder and harder to stomach outdated trends that no longer apply to today's NFL. If you're betting Week 1 unders based on blind trends then you just aren't paying attention ... and look at last year if you want a history lesson.
I simply used these articles as examples. I've got burned using a few situational trends this preseason as well. There are hundreds of other "trends" that pop up on these forums and other betting sites with next to no supporting rationale or basis in reality. My point is just be careful when looking to trends for the upcoming season. The same applies to things like RLM, underdogs, home dogs on MNF, etc etc. Anything that goes back more than 5 seasons is likely useless and that's probably a generous window.
Again...no disrespect to LT. He's one of the few cappers on SBR that I value for an opinion.
[Rant over...resume regularly scheduled programming....]
LT wrote a good article outlining the preseason here ..
..but things haven't gone according to plan. Shanahan, Tomlin, Schwartz, and McCarth are no longer blind follows just like Reid is no longer a blind fade in the NFLX. Totals in Week 3 historically averaged 39 points, but when they were posted this year they were blindly bet over across the board. The days of backups not being able to come in and move the chains are long long gone. So far this preseason overs are hitting at 57% clip.
He wrote another article about betting "unders" in Week 1 of the regular season...
The same thinking took place last season and unders were a popular trend to ride entering the season, but it was overs that reigned supreme and the overs continued to hit until books properly adjusted weeks later. The notion that "defenses start ahead of the offenses" is dinosaur thinking. The new CBA has put such a restriction on tackling and full pads hitting in practice that defenses are not progressing as well as yesteryear. Combine that with new rules restricting defenses in the games along with the ability for new QBs to make an easier transition into the NFL and it's no surprise that "overs" are the new way to go.
This isn't a personal attack on LT cuz I respect his capping, but it's getting harder and harder to stomach outdated trends that no longer apply to today's NFL. If you're betting Week 1 unders based on blind trends then you just aren't paying attention ... and look at last year if you want a history lesson.
I simply used these articles as examples. I've got burned using a few situational trends this preseason as well. There are hundreds of other "trends" that pop up on these forums and other betting sites with next to no supporting rationale or basis in reality. My point is just be careful when looking to trends for the upcoming season. The same applies to things like RLM, underdogs, home dogs on MNF, etc etc. Anything that goes back more than 5 seasons is likely useless and that's probably a generous window.
Again...no disrespect to LT. He's one of the few cappers on SBR that I value for an opinion.
[Rant over...resume regularly scheduled programming....]
