Calmeat NFL Picks 2012

[calmeat]

no problem,

Just been tracking some other cappers picks and comparing them with mine and stats for the ultimate consensus picks. 9-0 past 2 weeks.

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks

YTD
ML 85-40 68%, ATS 62-62 50%, O/U 65-62 51.18%
Consensus Picks ATS 32-20 61.54%

Week 12


2 Capper Consensus Picks
DET +3.5
BUF +3
MIA +3
STL +2.5
NYG -3
CAR +2.5

--I will be adding any extra consensus plays tomorrow. Right now CAR is a 3 capper consensus Hoping tomorrow it will be a 4 capper consensus

[calmeat]

System Bets

Straight
MIA +3 (-110) 1u
CAR +3 (-110) 1u

Parlay
MIA+3/CAR+3 .25u

Tease
6pt MIA+9/CAR+9 (-105) .5u
7pt MIA+10/CAR+10/STL+9.5 (+142) 1u

Home Dog ML
DET
MIA

[calmeat]

My Plays (so far)
2tm 6pt Tease HOU+2.5/NEP-2 .5u (-105)
6tm ML Parlay HOU/NEP 1u (open)
6tm 7.5pt Tease HOU+4/NEP-.5/CIN-2/DEN-4/ATL+7.5/BAL+7.5 1u (+580)
10tm 7.5pt Tease HOU+4/NEP-.5/CIN-2/DEN-4/JAX+10.5/ATL+7.5/MIA+10/BAL+7.5/STL+8.5/NYG+5 1u (+1525)

[calmeat]

adding to My Plays
3tm 7.5pt Tease DEN-4/ATL+7.5/BAL+7.5 1.5u (+127)
4tm 10.5pt Tease DEN-1/CIN+1/ATL+10.5/BAL+10.5 2.5u (+124)

[calmeat]

This is what im tracking as well
Here are 3 capper consensus
ATL
BUF
STL
BAL

4capper Consensus
OAK
CAR

[calmeat]

Here is my final list of plays

My Plays
2tm 6pt Tease HOU+2.5/NEP-2 .5u (-105)
3tm 7.5pt Tease DEN-4/ATL+7.5/BAL+7.5 1.5u (+127)
4tm 10.5pt Tease CIN+1/DEN-1/ATL+10.5/BAL+10.5 2.5u (+124)
6tm Parlay HOU/NEP/CIN/DEN/BAL/CAR 1u (+865)
6tm Parlay OAK+9.5/BUF+3.5/ATLpk/BALpk/STLpk/CAR-2.5 .5u (+3741)
6tm 6pt Tease OAK+15.5/BUF+9/ATL+6/BAL+6/STL+6/CAR+3.5 1u (+660)
6tm 7.5pt Tease HOU+4/NEP-.5/CIN-2/DEN-4/ATL+7.5/BAL+7.5 .5u (+580)
10tm 7.5pt Tease HOU+4/NEP-.5/CIN-2/DEN-4/JAX+10.5/ATL+7.5/MIA+10/BAL+7.5/STL+8.5/NYG+5 (+1525)

[CBOYNATION]

Thanks again Calmeat for a solid week

[calmeat]

NO problem Im praying for the NYG to win. Do you play any of the bigger teasers like the 10 teamer or anything? So far only 2 losses with OAK in them.

I have $70 to win $330 still riding on NYG and then CAR so really hoping they both hit.

[CBOYNATION]

NO problem Im praying for the NYG to win. Do you play any of the bigger teasers like the 10 teamer or anything? So far only 2 losses with OAK in them.

I have $70 to win $330 still riding on NYG and then CAR so really hoping they both hit.

My local bookie's site only let's me play 5 Team 7pt teasers max but I hit a $50 to $175 when Giants won last night thanks to you. I would love to play 10tm 10.5 pters by can't unfortunately, especially on how well you have done on them this year!

[calmeat]

Awesome glad to hear it hit for you, I should be ashamed of myself for helping out a cowgirl, but i guess i will have to live with it!

[calmeat]

uhh i hate my homerism, starting to get worried philly might pull the upset. I already hedged with Philly ML +155 $6.45 to win 10 (if philly won i would break even with the bet)

Need some help, thinking of doing PHilly +3 its +105 so if i did philly +3 23.81 to win 25.

If philly wins i would win 31.45 (25 +6.45 from ML bet i placed already).
If philly lost by 2.5 or less I would win 104.55 (86 + 25 - 6.45)
If Philly lost by 3 Id win 80.05 (86.50-6.45+push)
If philly lost by more than 3 I would win 56.24 (86.50-23.81-6.45)

Ill take a vote since i cant make up my mind. Who says i should bet the PHI +3 to win 25?

[calmeat]

Results Week 12
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 96-45 68.09%
ATS = 73-66 52.52%
O/U = 73-70 51.05%

Consensus Picks
ML = 38-20 65.52%
ATS = 37-21 63.79%
O/U = 29-29 50%

System Plays
38-32 54.29% +7.2u

My Plays
30-31 49.18% +41.56u

Week 12
System
ML = 11-5
ATS = 11-4-1
O/U = 8-8

Consensus Picks
ML = 5-1
ATS = 5-1
O/U = 3-3

[CBOYNATION]

uhh i hate my homerism, starting to get worried philly might pull the upset. I already hedged with Philly ML +155 $6.45 to win 10 (if philly won i would break even with the bet)

Need some help, thinking of doing PHilly +3 its +105 so if i did philly +3 23.81 to win 25.

If philly wins i would win 31.45 (25 +6.45 from ML bet i placed already).
If philly lost by 2.5 or less I would win 104.55 (86 + 25 - 6.45)
If Philly lost by 3 Id win 80.05 (86.50-6.45+push)
If philly lost by more than 3 I would win 56.24 (86.50-23.81-6.45)

Ill take a vote since i cant make up my mind. Who says i should bet the PHI +3 to win 25?

My fault man, I just saw this... Well for what it's worth I woulda said Philly +3, I had the same exact situation two weeks ago with Pitt and took the points. This way I didn't just automatically give my self a loss with the ML. What did you end up doing? I hope you left it alone since Panthers won...

[CBOYNATION]

Awesome glad to hear it hit for you, I should be ashamed of myself for helping out a cowgirl, but i guess i will have to live with it!

Yea taking advice from the only Eagles fan left on the planet (at least this year) is prolly not smart but +50 units says otherwise...

thanks again

[calmeat]

No problem i actually ended up taking PHI +3 so instead of winning the original 86 i ended up winning 56 but doubling my BR in one week was good enough for me so i pulled the trigger on it.

Now the trick is not to give it all back. Gotta be smart and manage the money. I wont be changing any unit size or anything just sticking with what has been working. And hopefully this week will be as good as the last.

All the eagles fans are still eagles fans we are just so tired of this regime. Yeah Big Red is a good coach but 14 years or whatever its been has just been too long.

[$Robert Dinero$]

Nice week calmeat. I like the charts you post as a tool for looking at games. From one eagle fan to another, hang in there....

[calmeat]

System Bets

Straight
WSH +8 (-110) 1u
TBB +7 (-110) 1u

Parlay
WSH+1/TBB+7 .25u

Tease
6pt WSH+7/TBB+13 (-105) .5u
7pt WSH+8/TBB+14/DET+2.5 (+142) 1u

[calmeat]

My Plays (so far)
4tm 11pt Tease ATL+8/CHI+7.5/HOU+4/CIN+9.5 2.5u(+115)
5tm 7pt Tease CHI+3.5/GB-2.5/HOUpk/DEN-1/CIN+5.5 1.5u (+340)
6tm Parlay CHI/GB/NE/HOU/DEN/DAL 1u (+427)
8tm Parlay NOS+3.5/CHI-3/MIN+9.5/CAR-2.5/NEP-7/HOU-6/TBB+8/CIN-1.5 .5u (+12123)
6tm 7.5pt Tease NOS+10.5/NEP-1/HOU+.5/DEN-.5/CIN+6/NYG+5.5 1u(+420)
10tm 7.5pt Tease NOS+10.5/CHI+4/MIN+17/SF-.5/CAR+4.5/DET+3/HOU+.5/TB+15.5/CIN+6/NYG+5.5 1u(+1525)

[MOONCRICKET]

System Bets

Straight
WSH +8 (-110) 1u
TBB +7 (-110) 1u

Parlay
WSH+1/TBB+7 .25u

Tease
6pt WSH+7/TBB+13 (-105) .5u
7pt WSH+8/TBB+14/DET+2.5 (+142) 1u

you mean wash +1 straight

[Arky]

How about a sheet?

[calmeat]

Yes wsh +1 sorry

Oh forgot to post that as well sorry about that. Ill update it tomorrow as well since BAL and CLE not on board

Calmeat's System Picks

YTD
ML 96-45 68.09%, ATS 73-66 52.52%, O/U 73-70 51.05%
Consensus Picks ATS 37-21 63.79%

Week 13


Consensus Picks
(Stats and I)
MIN +9
STL +7.5
DET -4.5
TB +7
OAK -1.5
PHI +10
WSH +1

(banmanj and I)15-2 since week9
NOS+3.5
CHI-4
MIN+9
CAR-3
TB+7
BAL-6.5

(banmanj and Stats) 12-1-1 since week9
MIN+9
ARI+4.5
HOU-6
TB+7
CIN-1.5

(All 3) 10-1 since week9
MIN+9
TB+7

[calmeat]

adding to my plays

2tm 6.5pt Tease ATL+3.5/Under 60.5 .5u(-115)

[calmeat]

Updated List

My Plays
2tm 6.5pt Tease ATL+3.5/Under 60.5 .5u(-115) W +.5u
4tm 11pt Tease ATL+8/CHI+7.5/HOU+4/CIN+9.5 2.5u(+115)
5tm 7pt Tease CHI+3.5/GB-2.5/HOUpk/DEN-1/CIN+5.5 1.5u (+340)
6tm Parlay CHI/GB/NE/HOU/DEN/DAL 1u (+427)
8tm Parlay NOS+3.5/CHI-3/MIN+9.5/CAR-2.5/NEP-7/HOU-6/TBB+8/CIN-1.5 .5u (+12123) L -.5u
6tm 7.5pt Tease NOS+10.5/NEP-1/HOU+.5/DEN-.5/CIN+6/NYG+5.5 1u(+420)
10tm 7.5pt Tease NOS+10.5/CHI+4/MIN+17/SF-.5/CAR+4.5/DET+3/HOU+.5/TB+15.5/CIN+6/NYG+5.5 1u(+1525)
10tm 7.5pt Tease CHI+4/GB-2/SF-.5/CAR+4.5/NEP-1.5/HOUpk/DEN-.5/BAL-2/CLE+6.5/CIN+7.5 .5u(+1525)
10tm 12.5pt Tease CHI+9/GB+3/SF+4.5/CAR+9.5/NEP+3.5/HOU+5/DEN+4.5/BAL+3/CIN+12.5/NYG+10.5 1u(+400)
15tm 7pt Tease CHI+3.5/GB-2.5/SF-1/NYJ+2.5/CAR+4/DET+2/BUFpk/NEP-2/HOU-.5/DEN-1/BAL-2.5/CLE+6/CIN+7/DAL-4.5/NYG+5 .5u(+9500)

[NavsPicks]

Why do you risk 3-4 of your parlays on just one game? For example if hou loses by a td (doubtful but could happen). You would lose almost all your parlays..? Correct me if I'm just seeing things its kinda late/tired. Seems to be working for you thus far so keep it up. GL

[calmeat]

hey Navs,
some games i feel comfortable with so i end up with them in most of my plays i dont parlay much but in teasers sometimes i like to have diff combos for the games i really like. HOU and cin are 2 i love in teasers this week with gb and ne right behind

[CBOYNATION]

Chicago and Tampa killed us man! Tampa lost me a huge parlay by half a point... Wish Tampa went for 2 at the end! Oh well, until next week. Thanks again for picks Calmeat still managed to squeeze a small profit today.

[calmeat]

Yeah CHI absolutely killed me lot of teasers died because of them. Luckily only down 1.62units and got 2u to win 8.2 riding on NYG tomorrow. Glad to hear you at least squeezed out a profit.

You watching my boys beat up on your cowgirls hahaha.

[CBOYNATION]

Yea Bryce Brown is a beast, unfortunately... Yea have Philly +11 in this one so not too mad about it. I figure Cowboys are done this year now so...

[calmeat]

@CBOYNATION Well look at that Your girls win and you get the cover thats a good night for you

[calmeat]

Results Week 13
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 106-51 67.52%
ATS = 77-78 49.68%
O/U = 76-83 47.80%

Consensus Picks
ML = 42-23 64.62%
ATS = 40-25 61.54%
O/U = 30-35 46.15%

System Plays
41-34 54.67% +8.77u

My Plays
34-37 47.89% +48.14u

Week 13
System
ML = 10-6
ATS = 4-12
O/U = 3-13

Consensus Picks
ML = 4-3
ATS = 3-4
O/U = 1-6

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks

YTD
ML 106-51 67.52%, ATS 77-78 49.68%, O/U 76-83 47.80%
Consensus Picks ATS 40-25 61.54%

Week 14

http://calmeat.mysbrforum.com/photos/n/8l7lu1yb.png

Consensus Picks
(Stats and I)
OAK+10
CLE-6.5
TB-7.5
MIA+10
NOS+4.5
ARI+10

(banmanj and I)16-6-1 since week9
OAK+10
TEN+5.5
TB-7.5
MIA+10
NOS+4.5
ARI+10
DET+6.5

(banmanj and Stats) 15-1-2 since week9
OAK+10
NYJ-2.5
ATL-3.5
TB-7.5
MIA+10
NOS+4.5
ARI+10
HOU+3..5

(All 3) 11-1-1 since week9
OAK+10
TB-7.5
MIA+10
NOS+4.5
ARI+10

[calmeat]

System Bets

Straight
TBB-7.5 (-110) 1u
CLE-6.5 (-110) 1u

Parlay
TBB-7.5/CLE-6.5 .25u

Tease
6pt TBB-1.5/CLE-.5 (-105) .5u
7pt TBB-.5/CLE+.5/NOS+11.5 (+142) 1u

[calmeat]

My Plays
2tm 6pt Tease DEN-5.5/Under54.5 .5u(-115)
3tm 7pt Tease NYJ+4.5/ATL+3.5/HOU+10 .5u(+142)
4tm 7.5pt Tease OAK+19/NYJ+5/ATL+4/DET+14.5 .5u(+200)
4tm 11pt Tease CLE+4/ATL+7.5/NOS+15.5/HOU+14 2.5u(+115)
5tm 9pt Tease OAK+20.5/TBpk/MIA+20.5/NOS+13.5/ARI+20.5 1u (+210)
7tm PAR DEN/CLE/IND/ATL/TB/CIN/SEA 1u(+732)
8tm 7pt Tease OAK+18.5/NYJ+4.5/ATL+3.5/TB-2/MIA+18.5/NOS+11.5/ARI+18.5/DET+14 .5u (+1000)
10tm 8.5 Tease DEN-3/CEL+1.5/TEN+13.5/NYJ+6/ATL+5/TBB-.5/MIA+20/NOS+13/ARI+20/HOU+11.5 .5u(1050)

[calmeat]

Week 14