So going down my potential card for week 8 in the NFL - and looking over everything. I'm really having a hard time not to love chalk this week. Normally theres 2-3 dogs I love and 2-3 I think are pretty reasonable plays. The problem is, there's only 2 I really like, and to be honest - one feels 'trappish'.
The first being Tampa +2, not a big deal in terms of getting value with points - but I think Dallas is over-valued in this game slightly (just a few points). Ok, not a big limb I'm on there.
The second is Atlanta +9. I really like the Atlanta D. I've been riding them often and heavily and have done well with them when I feel it's a good situation. They are a decent 'meh' team with an absolute monster in John Abraham on D - and a couple of other studs. But something about this line bugs me...
Philly has been a very sexy team week in/out. They're a good team, not great. They've had some big wins and benefitted from some weak/stupid opponents. I know Andy Reid is 9-0 off the bye week, also. But laying 9 against a tough defense that is playing solid football every week? Is the public that much in love with Philly? I don't get it. I don't get it one bit. To be honest, there's about 3-5 points in value here in favor of Atlanta - I dunno, maybe I'm putting too much value on Atlanta. If the line was say Atl +6 - I'd feel safer with the points, weird, huh?
I guess some other prospects:
St Louis +7 - no value here. They're hot, on the road, should be getting another 3 IMO. I'm 90% sure Steven Jackson will not play - everything that is being said and he is saying says he will not play. NE's secondary is the issue here, though - if they get any kind of pressure, this game will be a blowout - and with no Jackson, they will get pressure.
Det +7 1/2 - About 7 points, IMO, undervalued - but at home, against a good football team. It's risky on that 7 line playing the favorite even with a crappy team like the lions, but they simply aren't getting enough to be worth it. 10, I'd think about real long and hard.
KC +13 - this is one I'm warming up to, if Huard starts. I havn't dug deep enough into this game to find out, though, yet. Laying almost 2 touchdowns is a big no no IMO, so have to find value in KC, and there really isn't much. In fact, they should be getting 1 1/2 more to be in the wheelhouse.
UPDATED: Tyler Thigpen is going and LJ, which I forgot to mention, is benched for the game. Great, MORE CHALK!
Ari +4 1/2 - Actually fair value here. The spread does favor Arizona in my eyes, but how confident can you bet on them on the road against a strong defense - and also missing Boldin. I dunno, all signs points to Carolina and all handicapping signs point to the Cards. I don't think I could go against Carolina in this spot... And I'll likely regret it.
Cinci +9 1/2 - Again, about a point shy of being a reasonable play. Houston is an underrated 'meh' team. They're 8-8 good and completely undervalued still IMO, although, they don't ever cover. So I'm clearly wrong on the Texans - and if I'm wrong, then why are they laying 9 1/2? Oh yeah, they're playing Cinci haha. Ugh - I don't have enough insight into whats going on in Bengal land right now, my tipsters havn't been available all week.
Sea +4 1/2 - This is actually a decent line. It's so decent, I want to take SF. SEA got mauled by the 9rs earlier and I have a feeling Gore will get the ball more - as Mike Singletary is taking over, and I think if Mike Martz is scared enough of ol Mikey boy - then he will listen and do the right thing and RUN GORE MORE. I think if anything, SF is the play here up to -6 1/2. Great - another chalk bet! ugh
I dunno - I'm missing something here in all these games and dangit, I'm not sleeping until I find the answers. It's rare I have so few dogs on my card at this point of the season - or is it just a chalkish kind of week?
The first being Tampa +2, not a big deal in terms of getting value with points - but I think Dallas is over-valued in this game slightly (just a few points). Ok, not a big limb I'm on there.
The second is Atlanta +9. I really like the Atlanta D. I've been riding them often and heavily and have done well with them when I feel it's a good situation. They are a decent 'meh' team with an absolute monster in John Abraham on D - and a couple of other studs. But something about this line bugs me...
Philly has been a very sexy team week in/out. They're a good team, not great. They've had some big wins and benefitted from some weak/stupid opponents. I know Andy Reid is 9-0 off the bye week, also. But laying 9 against a tough defense that is playing solid football every week? Is the public that much in love with Philly? I don't get it. I don't get it one bit. To be honest, there's about 3-5 points in value here in favor of Atlanta - I dunno, maybe I'm putting too much value on Atlanta. If the line was say Atl +6 - I'd feel safer with the points, weird, huh?
I guess some other prospects:
St Louis +7 - no value here. They're hot, on the road, should be getting another 3 IMO. I'm 90% sure Steven Jackson will not play - everything that is being said and he is saying says he will not play. NE's secondary is the issue here, though - if they get any kind of pressure, this game will be a blowout - and with no Jackson, they will get pressure.
Det +7 1/2 - About 7 points, IMO, undervalued - but at home, against a good football team. It's risky on that 7 line playing the favorite even with a crappy team like the lions, but they simply aren't getting enough to be worth it. 10, I'd think about real long and hard.
KC +13 - this is one I'm warming up to, if Huard starts. I havn't dug deep enough into this game to find out, though, yet. Laying almost 2 touchdowns is a big no no IMO, so have to find value in KC, and there really isn't much. In fact, they should be getting 1 1/2 more to be in the wheelhouse.
UPDATED: Tyler Thigpen is going and LJ, which I forgot to mention, is benched for the game. Great, MORE CHALK!
Ari +4 1/2 - Actually fair value here. The spread does favor Arizona in my eyes, but how confident can you bet on them on the road against a strong defense - and also missing Boldin. I dunno, all signs points to Carolina and all handicapping signs point to the Cards. I don't think I could go against Carolina in this spot... And I'll likely regret it.
Cinci +9 1/2 - Again, about a point shy of being a reasonable play. Houston is an underrated 'meh' team. They're 8-8 good and completely undervalued still IMO, although, they don't ever cover. So I'm clearly wrong on the Texans - and if I'm wrong, then why are they laying 9 1/2? Oh yeah, they're playing Cinci haha. Ugh - I don't have enough insight into whats going on in Bengal land right now, my tipsters havn't been available all week.
Sea +4 1/2 - This is actually a decent line. It's so decent, I want to take SF. SEA got mauled by the 9rs earlier and I have a feeling Gore will get the ball more - as Mike Singletary is taking over, and I think if Mike Martz is scared enough of ol Mikey boy - then he will listen and do the right thing and RUN GORE MORE. I think if anything, SF is the play here up to -6 1/2. Great - another chalk bet! ugh
I dunno - I'm missing something here in all these games and dangit, I'm not sleeping until I find the answers. It's rare I have so few dogs on my card at this point of the season - or is it just a chalkish kind of week?
