Front Page NFL Picks (Week 8, Oct 26-27)

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Front Page NFL Picks (Week 8, Oct 26-27)
    Dallas Cowboys -2 at home over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Game Time: 10/26/2008 01:00 PM -
    By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

    Everyone is writing the Cowboys off after the events of the last two weeks, while Tampa Bay impressed on national TV last week. Take Dallas to rise up at a cheap price.

    Now at fist glance, it appears that the Dallas Cowboys are up against it when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week.

    After all, the Dallas defense has been non-existent lately, and the Cowboys were even shredded by the lowly St. Louis Rams in a shocking upset loss last week. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are seven points from being 7-0 this season, and much of the country saw their devastating defense dominate the Seattle Seahawks on national television in prime time last Sunday night.

    However, because of this, we are getting fantastic line value here, as surely you would have taken Dallas laying less than a field goal at home if this line was offered two weeks ago. Furthermore, the Cowboys need this game to avoid the possibility of shockingly dropping to last place in the NFC East, while the Bucs are breathing easier, tied for the NFC South lead.

    Also do not forget that Tampa Bay has a disturbing habit of calling off the dogs early, as was the case Sunday night when the final score was an extremely deceptive 20-10. Anybody that watched that contest knows that the Seahawks looked totally outclassed and that the Bucs could have named the score.

    That kind of approach would get the Buccaneers in trouble here vs. an angry Cowboys team that will be determined to prove all of the detractors that are writing them off wrong, especially in front of their home fans.

    Besides, while yes the Bucs could be 7-0, they could also be 0-3 on the road, as their only road win was somewhat gift wrapped by a Chicago Bears penalty in overtime while Tampa was punting the ball away.

    We will opt to buy low here and back a proud Dallas team at this bargain price at home.

    Free Pick: Cowboys -2 (-110)
  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #2
    Over 45 & New Orleans Saints +3 vs. San Diego Chargers

    Game Time: 10/26/2008 01:00 PM -
    By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

    With two solid offenses on the field, the fans in London should see a lot of scoring on Sunday. Cash the New Orleans Saints as the underdogs and play the Over as well.

    This game is being played in London and should be a much more entertaining contest than last year’s low scoring, muddy affair between the Giants and the winless Dolphins.

    Both of these teams are equally great offensively, as the Saints have averaged 6.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Chargers have averaged 6.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Saints have been better defensively so far this season.

    New Orleans was shaky defensively the first three games of the season but they’ve tightened up the last four games and now rate at average for the season on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off a poor defensive game in Buffalo (6.4 yppl allowed) and they’ve given up 5.5 yppl for the season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team).

    The loss of Reggie Bush doesn’t hurt the Saints offense at all, but he’s been worth almost three points per game with his punt returns, three of which have gone for touchdowns, and San Diego now has the special teams edge in this game with New Orleans continuing to suffer with their place kicking.

    My math model favors New Orleans by ½ a point, so I like the Saints plus the points in this one and I'll favor the Over.

    Prediction: New Orleans-27 San Diego-26

    Free Pick: Saints +3 / Over 45
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Kansas City Chiefs & New York Jets Under 39

      Game Time: 10/26/2008 01:00 PM -
      By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

      The Chiefs giving up 34 to the Tians last week has helped to push this total a little high. Play the Under when Kansas City travels to New York on Sunday to face the Jets.

      The Chiefs gave up 34 points to the Titans last week and have seen three of four games finish above the total. Those results have helped keep this Over/Under line above the key number of 37. I believe that provides us with plenty of value.

      Kansas City has seen the Under go 12-7-1 their last 20 road games. They've also seen the Under go 4-1 the last five times that they were double-digit underdogs. The Chiefs have scored just 10 points in their last two games combined.

      As for the Jets, they managed only 13 at Oakland last week. Including that result New York has seen the Under go 10-3 their last 13 games. Looking back further and we find the Under at a profitable 61-40-2 the last 103 times that they were laying points, including 2-0 when they were listed as double-digit favorites.

      Last year's meeting finished with a score of 13-10 and this year's has all the makings of another low-scoring affair.

      Free Pick: Chiefs-Jets Under 39 (-110
      Comment
      • SBRforum Staff
        Moderator
        • 07-31-06
        • 1306

        #4
        Take Tennessee Titans -4 at home vs. Indianapolis Colts

        Game Time: 10/26/2008 08:35 PM -
        By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

        Tennessee looks to move to 7-0 on the season against an inconsistent Indianapolis squad. Lay the points on the Titans at home Sunday when they host the Colts.

        I went against the Colts last week for a 3-Star Best Bet winner on Green Bay, and Indy still appears to be overrated.

        The Colts have been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are only 0.2 yppl better than average if I take out Peyton Manning’s rusty performance in the opener against Chicago (he missed all of training camp and the preseason and was obviously rusty).

        Tennessee’s defense is good against the run and the pass, and the Titans rate at 0.8 yppl better than average defensively overall (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Colts to have much success in this game. The Titans’ offense has been a bit sluggish, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average and they are at a slight disadvantage against a Colts’ stop unit that is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team).

        Tennessee is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Titans by 8 points in this game. There are very strong situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll stick with the math and lean with the Titans minus the points.

        Prediction: Tennessee-23 Indianapolis-16

        Free Pick: Titans -4 (-110)

        © Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.
        Comment
        • SBRforum Staff
          Moderator
          • 07-31-06
          • 1306

          #5
          San Diego Chargers & New Orleans Saints Under 45½

          Game Time: 10/26/2008 01:00 PM -
          By: Ted Sevransky | who2beton.com

          With rain in the forecast look for the field conditions to once again be soggy across the pond. Play the San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints under the total in London.

          Last year when the Giants and Dolphins met at Wembley Stadium in London, the field conditions could not have been worse. Wembley was built for soccer, not professional football. The description of last year’s game was “a mud-caked slog through the unfriendly pitch at torn-up Wembley Stadium.”

          Dolphins kicker Jay Feely said, "The field was like ice." Both teams were jet-lagged and inconvenienced traveling overseas. It was not pretty football. We should expect more of the same in 2008.

          If you’ve ever been to London in the Fall, you know already that it rains almost every day. The lookahead forecast for London on Sunday shows a likelihood of rain falling throughout the game, leaving the field in ‘quagmire’ conditions once again.

          Yes, the Saints and Chargers both have explosive, high powered offenses. But let’s not forget that these two offenses combined to produce just 21 points in good conditions this past weekend. And each team’s defense has exceeded expectations in recent weeks as well. After a streak of five consecutive Overs to open the season, the Saints have now gone Under the total in each of the last two weeks, with the Chargers riding a three-game Under streak of their own.

          In a game where staying healthy in ugly conditions is likely to be every bit as important as winning, look for both coaches to utilize conservative gameplans, leading to another low scoring affair. Take the Under.

          Free Pick: Chargers-Saints Under 45½ (-110)
          Comment
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