Bills +1 at HOME vs Chargers...The L word?

jamesrg · 10-15-08, 04:34 AM

I say move on to another game

SD can explode and that's why i'm always temped to take them but this one is a bit too risky

Lout84 · 10-15-08, 01:51 PM

Stay away from this game.

hakrjak · 10-15-08, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by l7ustin

1) Chargers are travelling across the country following a Monday night victory.
There's no proof that this has any impact on teams ability to win. Travel sure didn't bother the NE Pats last year...
2) Bills are coming off a bye No proof this does anything except give a team longer to think. For all you know the Bills have been fixated on their recent loss and have had a week to feel like they just might no be the team that everybody thought they could be this year!?
3) Bills are coming off a loss they had 2 weeks to think about.
Again, depending on the team, this can do more to build insecurity than help them
4) Bills (4-1) are being disrespected by being an underdog at
homeNobody cares....
5)Chargers cannot stop the runThey seemed to do a decent job of it a couple times this year.... The run won't be much of a factor though once Rivers opens up the guns and puts them behind by 14 points early....
6)Bills have Marshawn LynchSD have LT and Sproles and Chris Chambers, and Jackson and Philip Rivers
7)Edwards will be able to throw well once running game is effectiveHe may still be injured, who knows how he'll be able to throw, and if they'll be able to establish any kind of a runnning game
8)LT is not playing like LT this year, maybe its the toe maybe RB is a young man's positionHe is back to 100% and should be fine from here on in...
9)Bills have good run defenseWon't matter, Rivers is mostly pass
10)Bills have talented secondary they wont get torched like New EnglandToo much talent on the SD side of the ball to make this prediction
11)Chargers hate the Patriots for knocking them out twice in playoffs, they dont hate the Bills and wont play as hard.Won't impact them....
12)Chargers could be thinking about their next week game in London vs the SaintsNow you're reaching....
13)Chargers have 80% of bets but line has not moved, sharps like Bills??If only the wealthy betters jumped off a bridge, would you do it too?

Thoughts?

LOL

- Hakrjak

LT Profits · 10-15-08, 02:05 PM

Actually Chargers opened -2 at CRIS and line is now PICK depsite 65% of early action on SD.

Also, the OP left out that Chargers are a west coast team playing at 1:00 ET, which is also a nice go-against angle.

LT Profits · 10-15-08, 02:08 PM

Hakrjak,

This is identical situation as MIAMI game, and we all know how that went.

hakrjak · 10-15-08, 02:09 PM

You guys are crazy -- I'd take SD -7 in this one. They have only failed me once all year

- Hakrjak

LT Profits · 10-15-08, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by hakrjak

You guys are crazy -- I'd take SD -7 in this one. They have only failed me once all year

- Hakrjak

And the one time they failed you was the exact same situation as this one.

- Travelling three times zones and playing at 1:00 ET

- Opponent coming off of a bye

- Heavy action on San Diego, yet reverse line movement of at least on full point

The only difference is that Buffalo may actually be better than Miami.

It's like deja vu all over again.

ezeblazin · 10-15-08, 02:19 PM

1) Chargers are travelling across the country following a Monday night victory.
There's no proof that this has any impact on teams ability to win. Travel sure didn't bother the NE Pats last year...

Although it was Sunday, not Monday......by my count, teams traveling from the west coast to play 1pm games in the east are 0-6 so far this year

I'm not gonna put any money on this game, but i'm definitely picking the Bills

pat venditto · 10-15-08, 02:24 PM

I'm on chargers -1 +102

themajormt · 10-15-08, 02:29 PM

[QUOTE=hakrjak;1114636]You guys are crazy -- I'd take SD -7 in this one. They have only failed me once all year

I will take the Bills +7 at -130 odds with you if you want... $100 bet between you and me? You down?

You can have SD-7 even

LT Profits · 10-15-08, 02:35 PM

Could I have Bills +7.5 -175 no vig? That's Chargers -7.5 +175 for you.

alexda[] · 10-15-08, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Hakrjak,

This is identical situation as MIAMI game, and we all know how that went.

i duno y u try to convince him lt. some ppl wanna learn to cap better but hes set in his ways. let him pick the square picks until he realizes betting isnt as easy as picking the "better" team.

Legend4Aday · 10-15-08, 05:35 PM

Maybe if the list gets longer the bills will have the advantage, but the game should be close.. 27-17 San Diego

BadBeatBodog · 10-15-08, 07:24 PM

hakrjak is a troll?

Brady2Moss · 10-15-08, 07:26 PM

SD is the play.

roasthawg · 10-15-08, 09:09 PM

I was waiting for the line to get to +2 for Buffalo before I made a play on the Bills...doesn't look like it's gonna get there.

l7ustin · 10-16-08, 12:44 AM

hakrjak no offense but are you a chargers fan?

eidolon · 10-16-08, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by Brady2Moss

SD is the play.

OK, if you pick SD, I'm definitely betting Buffalo ML -106.

DeluxeLiner · 10-16-08, 02:26 AM

I feel like Buffalo is the play for the reasons LT mentioned (the time, the place). SD has underperformed this year and I know everyone is going to call the Bronco and Carolina flukes but really...those games should not have been as close as they were in the first place if SD is as good as they were preseason predicted to be. I really dig the situation and I think the Bills are the smart play. I think LT brings up a good point that we should learn from that Miami win and the situation that SD found itself in. I would go with the Bills here, I think they are a good spot but far from calling this game a lock or anything else of that ridiculous nature.

Chi_archie · 10-16-08, 02:37 AM

great post in my opinion, lzustin....

you found 13.....freaking reasons... THIRTEEN freakin reasons to back a team...and most if not all of them are great reasons.

Many of them are or are parts of TRENDS that help people make picks like st. louis over wash, and cleve over the giants ect..

its the NFL and maybe the dolphins and pats of last year...made us think that its possible for the BEST of teams to go 16-0 and the worst of teams almost go 1-15... but for the most part...with professional athletes in the sport of football.... its any given sunday...cliche but tooo true..... so we need to come up with models and trends to help us narrow down those "any" given sundays.

all that said. The BILLS ARE A GOOD TEAM...AND AT HOME.
people fall in love with these offenses that get alot of plays on sportscenter for high-scoring or controversial (denver) games.... the linesmakers know this more then anyone...and set the lines accordingly....

games like these are your best chance of 'using' the linesmakers to your advantage... they are giving you free points here in a game of a one good team vs another... in a sport where bad teams beat good teams...EVERY week.

when will people learn? GL

ZBOIZ · 10-16-08, 02:38 AM

Guys just take the Bills and call it a night

Tsoprano · 10-16-08, 02:40 AM

Im going with the Bills

Chi_archie · 10-16-08, 02:41 AM

IMMA take da Bills.....

just because they were the answer to the first question to tonights trivia contest that yours truly got right..... there it is...

its a lock

DeluxeLiner · 10-16-08, 06:57 AM

It is not a lock and calling it a lock is terrible karma.

Robust · 10-16-08, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

It is not a lock and calling it a lock is terrible karma.

i am on sdg pk.. so this is good news

Robust

Robust · 10-16-08, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by Robust

i am on sdg pk.. so this is good news

Robust

ok.. went to check the lines on this..

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -1 45.0 81% off 71%
BUFFALO BILLS 46.5 PK 19% 29%

the money is on SDG, but the line went up.. reverse line movement.. i am thinking i am going to change my mind on this.. AGAIN!! lol

will be watching it closely on game day..

Robust

jjgold · 10-16-08, 08:10 AM

Almost a trap game because you would think Billls would be favored by more although my line has SD-3 so good value with Chargers. Buffalo is ok but I think very beatable.

DeluxeLiner · 10-16-08, 08:17 AM

I really don't think Buffalo would be favored by more considering they are not a perennial elite team, and San Diego has been very disappointing and was a highly anticipated team that should be way better than they are, i think the trap is picking San Diego.

Chi_archie · 10-16-08, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

It is not a lock and calling it a lock is terrible karma.

I wasn't really calling it a lock based on the actual handicapping of it... I was joking about my reasoning for taking the bills, ie they were an answer to a trivia question

and you are right, there is no such thing as a lock. But there is a less such thing as karma then there is a lock.

Irish Lumberjack · 10-16-08, 09:10 AM

Buffalo is the correct play here, buffalo is a crazy place to play at 10am pt

sickler · 10-16-08, 09:24 AM

Not touching this game.

Chargers too unpredictable.

Will be a good one to watch purely for entertainment value.

daggerkobe · 10-16-08, 09:30 AM

Not surprising about SD losing in Miami.... they are now 0-7 there all-time. So Fins ML was an obvious play.

SD won at Buffalo in 2006. Bills D can't stop the offensive weapons that SD has..... they couldn't even stop the Cards or even the Raiders. Trent Edwards should start but you never know with concussions.

SD would be my play.

l7ustin · 10-17-08, 01:13 AM

OMG the bills lost to Arizona??

Arizona sucks they couldnt even beat the Cow...oh wait they did beat the Cowboys.

Arizona is amazing at home, dont knock that loss.

daggerkobe · 10-17-08, 01:19 AM

And the Cowboys lost at home to Redskins that lost to the Rams.

Playing six degrees of seperation is sooooo f'n retarded.