Vikings +3.5

robbiemesser · 10-06-08, 12:44 PM

Why?

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 12:52 PM

I'm not a capper that gets into writeups, but there are very good reasons, just watch the game and talk to me after. I am taking them +140 as well.

hakrjak · 10-06-08, 01:10 PM

Thanks for nothing. haha

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by hakrjak

Thanks for nothing. haha

I have a question for you, would you rather a poster go 2-8 and give you the most elaborate write-ups in the world and tell you about mismatches and trends and all that other bullshit.

Or would you rather someone not tell you anything and go 7-3, I'll take the quiet guy any day of the week. Good luck tonight and for the season. Do yourself a favor and stake Minn tonight.

hakrjak · 10-06-08, 02:12 PM

Have you heard about the Berrian injury? No influence on your pick?

keystonekid · 10-06-08, 02:14 PM

I am on Minnesota +3-

If Minnesota brings their rushing defense, they may be able to kept it close.

dmiles1021 · 10-06-08, 02:21 PM

Wack Minn pick, watch N.O. smash that terrible 2ndary tonight

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by hakrjak

Have you heard about the Berrian injury? No influence on your pick?

Yes I am familiar with Barrian injury and the only influence it has on my pick is that I will get a better line at game time and more value in the moneyline, it will probably go to around +155. Lets get one thing straight I love Barrian and feel like he should be doing alot more for Minn. but he hasn't partially due to terrible QB play of Tevarus Jackson, and now the old man. So Barrian being out doesn't even really affect Minn in a negative way, infact it might help them cause now they will rely completely on AP and he will deliever, then when Saints have to sell out to stop the run, you will see one or two big plays off of play action.

Answering the other guy about week secondary yes you are right, but tonight Minn. gets tons of preasure on Brees and doesn't give him time to throw.

Andrewsurf · 10-06-08, 02:37 PM

Minnesota couldn't get the pressure on Peyton even with a completely beaten up offensive line. He passed for over 300 yards. Drew Brees is head and shoulders above Peyton right now, has been all season. The offense is rolling together much better as well. No way Minny can score enough to keep up with the Saints tonight, I really hope vikings backers aren't hoping on pass rushing to keep them in this one.

mgcolby · 10-06-08, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Andrewsurf

Minnesota couldn't get the pressure on Peyton even with a completely beaten up offensive line. He passed for over 300 yards. Drew Brees is head and shoulders above Peyton right now, has been all season. The offense is rolling together much better as well. No way Minny can score enough to keep up with the Saints tonight, I really hope vikings backers aren't hoping on pass rushing to keep them in this one.

As a Viking backer I am not counting on Minny's defense getting pressure on Brees - I am counting on Minny's rushing offense to keep the ball out of his hands. NO's is terrrible against the run and missing Ellis won't improve that. I think this will be a close game (23-21).

Andrewsurf · 10-06-08, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by mgcolby

As a Viking backer I am not counting on Minny's defense getting pressure on Brees - I am counting on Minny's rushing offense to keep the ball out of his hands. NO's is terrrible against the run and missing Ellis won't improve that. I think this will be a close game (23-21).

Vikings will probably be able to control the clock, but do remember not only will their offense be one dimensional, which admittedly won't hurt them as much as some think with AP and Taylor, but the Saints will be able to plug up the run much better then people think. They managed to do a nice job against Gore last week even with the passing game working pretty well for SF. Gore is no AP, but don't be surprised if he doesn't run all over the saints.

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 05:14 PM

Ok, everyone has made some very strong arguments and good points and I appreciate that, now lets forget about the game and the players and talk about the spread and the public. Now we all now Saints passing offense is awesome right, and Minn pass D is pathetic, so this is major advantage to the Saints, and the Saints are at home and Barrian is out. Now can someone please explain to me that with all of these things in the Saints favor they are only a 3 point favorite. I will tell you how, because the books want all the action to be on the Saints, then tonight when the Saints offense looks like shit and the fumble the ball 3 times and Brees throws 2 picks. Everyone will be saying whats going on, damn the Saints suck the Brees is terrible I can't believe this. Just trust me on this, you don't need to take Minn but please don't take the Saints. It is a loser.

bumppinee · 10-06-08, 05:17 PM

i feel what you saying, but the books were all over indy yesterday.

Robust · 10-06-08, 05:24 PM

i was leaning towards NO and under.. now i see the money being spent.

2008-10-06 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 47 47.0 17% 48% 76%
20:35 EST NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 -3.0 83% 52% 24%

notice how more betting is on NO, but the totals are way higher for Minn? well.. that means the sharps like the vikings.
Now this is what Nick Bogdanovich says in his weekly article:

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: We haven't had many games on the magic number this week. New Orleans is a 3-point favorite...and this is obviously a game where any move off the number would generate significant sharp action. These look to be evenly matched teams. A line of 2.5 would bring in big money on the hosts...while a line of 3.5 would bring out the dog lovers. Right now, New Orleans has extra juice on the field goal. If the public bets that up to 3.5, you'll see a lot of sharps on the Vikings come Monday. The total has dropped from 47 to 46.5...which is a different way of betting the Vikings if you can't get more than a field goal. An Under bet is a Vikings bet in this matchup of styles.

seems these "in-the-know" people are going with Minn.

make that them + 1 riding their coatails..

Minn ML & Under

Robust

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by bumppinee

i feel what you saying, but the books were all over indy yesterday.

Yes they were and look what happened, Texans were the biggest winner ever, then some bullshit happened, the Texans was the right pick there, I had Texans Moneyline and spread, I lost moneyline and pushed on spread. I'm not saying that shady lines always works and it is not the only thing you should base your pick on, but it is something to think about, espcially for Monday night games, where the entire world is watching and average joes that don't usually gamble want to throw a few bucks on the game.

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Robust

i was leaning towards NO and under.. now i see the money being spent.

2008-10-06 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 47 47.0 17% 48% 76%
20:35 EST NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 -3.0 83% 52% 24%

notice how more betting is on NO, but the totals are way higher for Minn? well.. that means the sharps like the vikings.
Now this is what Nick Bogdanovich says in his weekly article:

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: We haven't had many games on the magic number this week. New Orleans is a 3-point favorite...and this is obviously a game where any move off the number would generate significant sharp action. These look to be evenly matched teams. A line of 2.5 would bring in big money on the hosts...while a line of 3.5 would bring out the dog lovers. Right now, New Orleans has extra juice on the field goal. If the public bets that up to 3.5, you'll see a lot of sharps on the Vikings come Monday. The total has dropped from 47 to 46.5...which is a different way of betting the Vikings if you can't get more than a field goal. An Under bet is a Vikings bet in this matchup of styles.

seems these "in-the-know" people are going with Minn.

make that them + 1 riding their coatails..

Minn ML & Under

Robust

Very smart, I try to explain this all the time, 1000 100 dollar bets and 10 10,000 bets on a particular side are not the same thing, I'll go with the guys that have 10,000 on the game any day of the week. I am on Minn Spread for 2k Minn moneyline for 1k and Under for 1k good luck to everyone.

Masu485 · 10-06-08, 05:35 PM

how come before i make my pick everyone is on one side, so i go with it, then after i confirm my wager, come back here and see everyone is suddenly on the other fukkin side???

that makes me furious!

Masu485 · 10-06-08, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Robust

i was leaning towards NO and under.. now i see the money being spent.

2008-10-06 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 47 47.0 17% 48% 76%
20:35 EST NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 -3.0 83% 52% 24%

notice how more betting is on NO, but the totals are way higher for Minn? well.. that means the sharps like the vikings.
Now this is what Nick Bogdanovich says in his weekly article:

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: We haven't had many games on the magic number this week. New Orleans is a 3-point favorite...and this is obviously a game where any move off the number would generate significant sharp action. These look to be evenly matched teams. A line of 2.5 would bring in big money on the hosts...while a line of 3.5 would bring out the dog lovers. Right now, New Orleans has extra juice on the field goal. If the public bets that up to 3.5, you'll see a lot of sharps on the Vikings come Monday. The total has dropped from 47 to 46.5...which is a different way of betting the Vikings if you can't get more than a field goal. An Under bet is a Vikings bet in this matchup of styles.

seems these "in-the-know" people are going with Minn.

make that them + 1 riding their coatails..

Minn ML & Under

Robust

also, what site do you go to to get that info? like total money bet on a side and all that?

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by Masu485

also, what site do you go to to get that info? like total money bet on a side and all that?

You can't really trust any of these sites that post the action that is coming in on each side, I'm sure some of them are real but its only a handful.

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 08:39 PM

Well game is shaping up exactly as i scripted it, so far we have blocked field goal and two fumbles, vikings have 30 yards total offense but lead by 7

Andrewsurf · 10-06-08, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Well game is shaping up exactly as i scripted it, so far we have blocked field goal and two fumbles, vikings have 30 yards total offense but lead by 7

I would be pretty worried about that lack of offense if I were you, can the Saints really be that bad again in the second half? Well, actually yes, if they continue to choke in enemy territory.

Either way I don't know whats gonna happen, just liking my over now.

mgcolby · 10-06-08, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Andrewsurf

Vikings will probably be able to control the clock, but do remember not only will their offense be one dimensional, which admittedly won't hurt them as much as some think with AP and Taylor, but the Saints will be able to plug up the run much better then people think. They managed to do a nice job against Gore last week even with the passing game working pretty well for SF. Gore is no AP, but don't be surprised if he doesn't run all over the saints.

Very good call on the run d for the saints. Now why the hell didn't I read this before I laid the dough on the Peterson prop of over 95.5 yards.

strictlywinners · 10-06-08, 09:30 PM

My man your not out yet, Vikings are up which means a healthy dose of peterson in the 2nd half. He can go for the homerun at any time.