Guys, POUND the Colts (-3)
The Texans are horrible people. As bad as the Colts D is they will be able to throw points on the board like no other this week. The Texans secondary is probably the worst in the NFL. Come on this line is crap.
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I got on em -4, for 2 dimes. Good luck!Comment -
avg scoring is within 1.33, houston.
Against Jax, houston scored 27, lost by 3, Ind scored 21, lost by 2.
Houston loses by an avg 8.67 pts more than Ind.
but i agree.. houston sux.. but the end for me is gonna be rating pits/ten (played hou) and chi/min (played ind) to see who are the stronger teams and mathing out the loses accordingly.
no lean here as of yet (though my gut says Ind.. and i am over thinking it.. lol)
will post more thoughts as they come.
RobustComment -
This looks like the Sucker Bet of the Year! The Colts could (should!) be 0-3 this year and the Texans are coming off of their best game of the year, and this game is their home opener.
Also the books HAD to know they would be flooded with Colts money with an opener of -3, and as expected, 88% of the early action is on Indy so far.
I will definitely NOT be on the Colts here, although I may just pass on Side.Comment -
I second what LT just said. The Texans are better than most people think - but they are only a middle of the pack or a bit better team.Comment -
After a week off -- Peyton will be back to himself. He's really going to find his groove throwing against those terrible Houston DB's.... Jacque Reeves is their best corner, and he was the WORST corner in Dallas last year... The one who almost single handedly lost the Dallas vs. NYG playoffs game -- That should tell you something about their secondary. I think Peyton will chew 'em up!
- HakrjakComment -
Notice how everyone under 1000 posts love the colts while everyone over 1000 posts knows the Colts -3 has sucker written all over it? Coincidence? I dont think so...Comment -
The key here is Bob Sanders is still out and so goes the Indy run defense. I expect Houston to be able to get the ground game going and create more play action opportunities. I'd take the Texans or stay away. I think Indy's offensive woes may be more than getting their "groove" back after the bye week.Comment -
interestingly enough houston plays the colts well and have covered 4 of the last 5 games ATS.Comment -
the line and my gut says Houston, all over itComment -
yes houston alwas play good vs indi .. now indi came to texas after uracan ,home opener,houston coming desesperate for a win..and all people money are on the indi guys....im waiting for the line go up houston +4 then i will drop my money on houston....
they gona win... you will see
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Books knew what they were doing opening at -3 Indy, the Colts will get all the $100-$500 bets and players going all in with their last $1146.38 but most of the larger bets figure to be on Houston.
Now, that's not saying Manning won't decide to throw 4 TD's, because he very well could, but it's just more about value and "what have you done for me lately?". If a team is in awful form, sometimes it's gonna get worse before it gets better.Comment -
i dont like this game
gl guysComment -
Houstons dbs may be bad and im a P.Manning fan since he entered the NFL but its hard to throw to open guys when M. Williams or D. Ryans has put you on your back 2 of the best Def.s players in the game IMO GL everyone 
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Texans, again, one of the best bets in the nfl this yearComment -
They're 1-2 ATS this year, 0-3 SU. Got BLOWN OUT their first two games.
The Texans have no ground game. They have a rookie, Slaton, leading in rushing. Slaton averages 61 ypg. To top it off their defense is horrible. They've given up an average 33ppg. They've have not looked impressive to start.
This is the NFL so things can turn around. Houston is looking for their first win, and it's their first game at home. Indianapolis is looking for a win to maintain their "elite" status. Will Colts really drop to 1-3 with five really tough games after this one? Best bet is to stay away from this game.
If anything, the over looks good.Comment -
As others have said, I don't think Houston looked terrible when they took Jacksonville to OT on the road last week...
Indy isn't the Indy we're used to seeing over the past decade. They're (getting) old. They're banged up.
This isn't nearly the sure thing that you're making it out to be.
Another Buyer Beware game...
DocComment -
you must not have watched them playComment -
The Colts are down right now. Jeff Saturday is back - but he wasn't supposed to be back yet. He'll add some stability to a troubled O Line. Marvin isn't 100% - that's clear - he pretty much lost his job as the #2 due to his performance. Bob Sanders is out, also - a strong trend is the Colts play when he is out, and the amount of yards on the ground they give up and lack of turnovers they generate when he is out of the lineup.
Also, you have to look at Indy's running game. The last 2 years, Indy has morphed into a running team... But look at how poor Indy has been at controlling the football and rushing the ball - not good at all. With injuries on the OLine - it's clear they're going to keep struggling against good defenses - and the Texans have a good defense (not great). The Colts will have to become a pass first team, which is risky, even with Manning. But, as we know, the Texans secondary isn't exactly superlative - it's a problem, for sure - but they do generate good pressure on the QB, which does ease the pain some.
I don't think anyone is saying the Texans are the better team - right now, they're not. However, division rivalry game - a team that is not nearly as bad as their record has shown - the value can eventually be on the dog to cover the points. I think Colts -3 is a line that doens't give much value to the Texans yet. If it hits 3 1/2 or 4, things will change. I still don't have this game 'done' on my card yet - I still want to look at the Colts from 2 weeks ago first...Comment -
I'm from Indy so I almost always pass on the Colts since I'm about as partial as MSNBC or Fox News! I will say the Colts offense looked a TON better vs Jacksonville. 21 points in only 18+ minutes on the field isn't bad....plus Mathis got away w/a serious pull on Marvins jersey on that pick/6 that he took back! The O-line is getting healthier, Dallas is back, and Peyton is getting back up to speed! Defensively, the Colts looked like shit as usual w/o Bob Sanders! One man should not make that much difference...the other guys tackle fine when Sanders is playing?? Not sure Houston has the battering type RBs to take advantage of us though although Steve Slaton got 100+ on Tenn. which is probably the best D-Line in the NFL! The Colts haven't played well after the bye week typically under Dungy but we haven't been staring at 1-3 and buried (Tenn) either! I would lean Colts since Houston has only beaten us once in their history but it will be a small play for me!
Indy 26
Houston 17Comment -
WOW...so this guy bet $1800 to win $100... Why didn't you go to the nearest casino or poker machine??? Anyways I've been following this forum for around 2 yrs. now and even was up to over 3000 post. Then I sorta go into some trouble and wasn't able to post anymore. Lost/Forgot my password, so here I am starting all over again. I really do enjoy this forum, which I believe is one of the best. Lots of great cappers in here. I'm glad to be back and look forward to weekends once again.
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WOW...so this guy BRADY2MOSS bet $1800 to win $100... Why didn't you go to the nearest casino or poker machine??? Anyways I've been following this forum for around 2 yrs. now and even was up to over 3000 post. Then I sorta go into some trouble and wasn't able to post anymore. Lost/Forgot my password, so here I am starting all over again. I really do enjoy this forum, which I believe is one of the best. Lots of great cappers in here. I'm glad to be back and look forward to weekends once again.
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considering colts are coming off the bye, they should come out strong and put some points on the board early. they know they have struggled early in their first two games and have had to come from behind to win. they came out strong against jacksonville and shouldve led 14-3 at the half, but manning threw an interception that was returned for a td. their style defense is built to protect a lead.
sharp play - colts lead after 1st half.
but in the second half as long as houston doesnt abandon the run game, and don't turn the ball over, they should make it close in the end.Comment -
seems like a trap
nfl stands for NO FALSE LINES
colts are better no doubt but there D is shit without Sanders
stay away if you must play play overComment -
I have this game graded as Indy -2. If the line gets to Houston +4.5, I'll buy.
The reasoning is pretty well explained above. Indy isn't the Indy of old and could easily be 0-3. Houston is scraping for a win and finally get their home opener, the atmosphere might be electric for them. Houston always plays Indy tough anyway. This is a ripe spot for the dog to cover.Comment -
Indy scored 21 points in 18 minutes on the field last week! Houston doesn't have the ground game to pound and play time of possession to exploit our weak run defense! Here's a trend I found that applies to this game as well:
Play on a road team that lost by 3 or less at home before their bye!
1993-2007: 17-4 ATSComment
