Monday Night Football: Ravens betting on upset
Monday Night Football: Ravens betting on upset
Following an absolutely horrendous showing in 2007, the Baltimore Ravens are off to a better start to the '08 campaign with a 2-0 mark both straight up and against the spread. Former Crimson Tide fullback LeRon McClain has stepped in for Willis McGahee who has been slowed by injuries. But can Joe Flacco & Co. get the job done on the road in Pittsburgh against Ben Roethlisberger in a key AFC north battle?
Finally, the plain-looking ones are getting some action.
The Baltimore Ravens were easily one of the most disappointing stories of the 2007 NFL season at 5-11 straight up and a horrifying 3-13 against the spread. But that’s yesterday’s news. The 2008 Ravens are 2-0 SU and ATS after two games, and they’re getting all the steam for their Monday Night Football matchup against the nationally adored Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) opened as 7-point favorites with a total of 34½, but the spread was gradually whittled down to five points by early Monday morning. The total also slipped to 33½ points before settling at 34. A strong defensive effort is expected from both teams, but the betting public’s sudden fondness for Baltimore seems to be more about Willie Parker. Pittsburgh’s starting tailback is reportedly out of commission this week and next with a sprained left knee.
The last time Parker was injured was when he missed the 2007 season finale against the Baltimore Ravens, who won 27-21 as 3-point home dogs. Najeh Davenport only ran for 27 yards in Parker’s place. However, the Steelers were resting QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Hines Ward for the playoffs. It was like an exhibition game for Pittsburgh.
It’s common practice for the public to overreact when a big-name RB goes down. When Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson missed two games last year, Chester Taylor stepped in with 241 yards and four TDs as the Vikings went 2-0 SU and ATS. The Steelers don’t have Davenport anymore, but they do have Rashard Mendenhall. The rookie is built like a tank at 5-foot-10 and 225 pounds. That’s 15 pounds bigger than Parker, with softer hands and less wear and tear.
Parker is already an overvalued running back as it is. He’s currently ranked No. 18 in efficiency at his position by Football Outsiders, just one spot ahead of Oakland third-stringer Michael Bush. That’s not a very high benchmark for Mendenhall to reach.
This would make Pittsburgh a strong value play, except for the fact that Baltimore is playing exceptionally good football right now. Baltimore’s defense has been thoroughly dominant through eight quarters. The Ravens allowed just 10 points each to Cincinnati and Cleveland; the lone Bengals TD was on a fumble recovery. The two Ohio teams combined for just 143 yards on the ground.
There’s also the matter of Mendenhall’s text message to his friend and Ravens RB Ray Rice, in which Mendenhall predicted he’d light up Baltimore’s run defense. “Thanks for the bulletin-board material, rookie,” said Ravens LB Bart Scott after Rice showed the message to his teammates.
Scott and fellow LB Ray Lewis are already playing elite football as it is, combining for 16 tackles and three passes defended. They won’t be treating Mendenhall with kid gloves on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Ravens will be running the ball early and often against the Pittsburgh run defense, which has held steady so far at No. 8 in efficiency. Baltimore is No. 5 in the league in rushing and using three men to do it: Rice, incumbent starter Willis McGahee and fullback Le'Ron McClain. McGahee missed the opener with knee problems and got poked in the eye by Cleveland, so McClain is carrying the load and doing a fine job of it at No. 6 in the RB efficiency rankings.
The Ravens also have betting value because of their unusual QB situation. Rookie Joe Flacco is already at the controls because of injuries to Kyle Boller and Troy Smith. If you go by the traditional numbers, Flacco is awful: zero TDs, two picks, 55.7 passer rating. But Flacco’s primary task has been handing the ball to his tailbacks. Roethlisberger (three TDs, one INT, 99.4 QB rating) has gaudier numbers, but he’s been sacked 12 times. Flacco’s only been sacked once, leaving him one spot ahead in the QB efficiency ratings at No. 23.
Could Flacco take Trent Dilfer’s spot as Worst Quarterback to Win a Super Bowl? Let’s take it one game at a time. Monday’s kickoff is at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Following an absolutely horrendous showing in 2007, the Baltimore Ravens are off to a better start to the '08 campaign with a 2-0 mark both straight up and against the spread. Former Crimson Tide fullback LeRon McClain has stepped in for Willis McGahee who has been slowed by injuries. But can Joe Flacco & Co. get the job done on the road in Pittsburgh against Ben Roethlisberger in a key AFC north battle?
Finally, the plain-looking ones are getting some action.
The Baltimore Ravens were easily one of the most disappointing stories of the 2007 NFL season at 5-11 straight up and a horrifying 3-13 against the spread. But that’s yesterday’s news. The 2008 Ravens are 2-0 SU and ATS after two games, and they’re getting all the steam for their Monday Night Football matchup against the nationally adored Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) opened as 7-point favorites with a total of 34½, but the spread was gradually whittled down to five points by early Monday morning. The total also slipped to 33½ points before settling at 34. A strong defensive effort is expected from both teams, but the betting public’s sudden fondness for Baltimore seems to be more about Willie Parker. Pittsburgh’s starting tailback is reportedly out of commission this week and next with a sprained left knee.
The last time Parker was injured was when he missed the 2007 season finale against the Baltimore Ravens, who won 27-21 as 3-point home dogs. Najeh Davenport only ran for 27 yards in Parker’s place. However, the Steelers were resting QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Hines Ward for the playoffs. It was like an exhibition game for Pittsburgh.
It’s common practice for the public to overreact when a big-name RB goes down. When Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson missed two games last year, Chester Taylor stepped in with 241 yards and four TDs as the Vikings went 2-0 SU and ATS. The Steelers don’t have Davenport anymore, but they do have Rashard Mendenhall. The rookie is built like a tank at 5-foot-10 and 225 pounds. That’s 15 pounds bigger than Parker, with softer hands and less wear and tear.
Parker is already an overvalued running back as it is. He’s currently ranked No. 18 in efficiency at his position by Football Outsiders, just one spot ahead of Oakland third-stringer Michael Bush. That’s not a very high benchmark for Mendenhall to reach.
This would make Pittsburgh a strong value play, except for the fact that Baltimore is playing exceptionally good football right now. Baltimore’s defense has been thoroughly dominant through eight quarters. The Ravens allowed just 10 points each to Cincinnati and Cleveland; the lone Bengals TD was on a fumble recovery. The two Ohio teams combined for just 143 yards on the ground.
There’s also the matter of Mendenhall’s text message to his friend and Ravens RB Ray Rice, in which Mendenhall predicted he’d light up Baltimore’s run defense. “Thanks for the bulletin-board material, rookie,” said Ravens LB Bart Scott after Rice showed the message to his teammates.
Scott and fellow LB Ray Lewis are already playing elite football as it is, combining for 16 tackles and three passes defended. They won’t be treating Mendenhall with kid gloves on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Ravens will be running the ball early and often against the Pittsburgh run defense, which has held steady so far at No. 8 in efficiency. Baltimore is No. 5 in the league in rushing and using three men to do it: Rice, incumbent starter Willis McGahee and fullback Le'Ron McClain. McGahee missed the opener with knee problems and got poked in the eye by Cleveland, so McClain is carrying the load and doing a fine job of it at No. 6 in the RB efficiency rankings.
The Ravens also have betting value because of their unusual QB situation. Rookie Joe Flacco is already at the controls because of injuries to Kyle Boller and Troy Smith. If you go by the traditional numbers, Flacco is awful: zero TDs, two picks, 55.7 passer rating. But Flacco’s primary task has been handing the ball to his tailbacks. Roethlisberger (three TDs, one INT, 99.4 QB rating) has gaudier numbers, but he’s been sacked 12 times. Flacco’s only been sacked once, leaving him one spot ahead in the QB efficiency ratings at No. 23.
Could Flacco take Trent Dilfer’s spot as Worst Quarterback to Win a Super Bowl? Let’s take it one game at a time. Monday’s kickoff is at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.