Last week I went 4-3 with a couple of really close unders that got hosed in the end. Anyway, Here are my picks for week 4 of the NFL season.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 44.5 (-104 Matchbook *2 units)
This game has most people leaning toward the over, but the numbers scream under in this game. Cincinnati has averaged scoring an amazing 13.3 points per game, now you might argue that they are going against the Cleveland Defense and that will change, well the Cleveland Defense has averaged giving up only 22 points per game. This game needs to be 23-22 to hit the over, the two teams have only averaged, a total of 33.15 points per game. Which means in order to hit the over the two teams need to score a combined 12 points above their average in order to put the game over. While Cincy showed a little offensive life last week, Cleveland has shown nothing.
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders OVER 45.5 (-108 Matchbook *2 units)
This is another game that just doesn't seem right when we look at the other games this year. Oakland has scored an average of 20 points a game, and the Chargers have stopped no one, averaging a total of 31 points a game scored against them. So lets do the math and assume another average and have Oakland score 25 points. On the other side, SD has scored an average of 36 points per game, and Oakland has given up 24 points per game. So lets assume SD scores 30 points. That's a total of 55 points, 9.5 points OVER the OVER. This game just doesn't make sense, kinda like the DEN / NO game last week.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs OVER 46.5 (+106 Matchbook *2 units)
Another game where the math makes a little sense, but the change at QB for the Chiefs only help the issue. Huard at QB should improve the offense, and Denver has stopped no one in the air. KC has only scored a average of 10.7 points per game, but Denver has allowed a crazy 28 points per game. Bowe, Gonzo, Huard and LJ are going to find a nice comfort in going against a horrible Denver defense. Denver's offense on the other hand has scored a crazy 38 points per game, and should have no problem doing the same against the Chiefs. Lets assume they both average the same points scored....they still hit the over by 2 points, now add the fact they are both going against softer defenses than they have played all year, and this should hit the over easily.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans UNDER 36 (-106 Matchbook *1 unit)
I am not in love with this play, but the two teams haven't scored much and both love the run the ball. That being said, they are both two of the strongest run defenses in the league and should hold each other's ground game in check. Really a 10-7 game here shouldn't surprise anyone. Going back to the numbers of the game so far this season, Tennessee's defense has only allowed a whopping 9.7 points per game. Minnesota's defense similarly has only allowed 17 points per game. And neither team has the offense to change these numbers in the wrong direction.
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Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB ML (+116 Matchbook *3 units)
Green Bay and Tampa Bay may both be 2-1, but the last time TB played someone with an offense was back in their week 1 loss to New Orleans. Tampa beat Atlanta and Chicago still giving up 24 points to a horrible Chicago offense. Green Bay should be able to control this game and come out with a win. Really a spread of +1 does you no good, so I am just taking the ML here.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati CIN -3.5 (+113 Matchbook *2 units)
Cleveland has shown no life on the offensive side of the ball, Anderson may not even finish the game as the QB, Lewis can't run through anything and Braylon Edwards has a horrible case of the drops. Cincy has found an offense in Chris Perry, and Palmer has regained some confidence with a good game against the Giants last week.
Let me know what you think!
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 44.5 (-104 Matchbook *2 units)
This game has most people leaning toward the over, but the numbers scream under in this game. Cincinnati has averaged scoring an amazing 13.3 points per game, now you might argue that they are going against the Cleveland Defense and that will change, well the Cleveland Defense has averaged giving up only 22 points per game. This game needs to be 23-22 to hit the over, the two teams have only averaged, a total of 33.15 points per game. Which means in order to hit the over the two teams need to score a combined 12 points above their average in order to put the game over. While Cincy showed a little offensive life last week, Cleveland has shown nothing.
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders OVER 45.5 (-108 Matchbook *2 units)
This is another game that just doesn't seem right when we look at the other games this year. Oakland has scored an average of 20 points a game, and the Chargers have stopped no one, averaging a total of 31 points a game scored against them. So lets do the math and assume another average and have Oakland score 25 points. On the other side, SD has scored an average of 36 points per game, and Oakland has given up 24 points per game. So lets assume SD scores 30 points. That's a total of 55 points, 9.5 points OVER the OVER. This game just doesn't make sense, kinda like the DEN / NO game last week.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs OVER 46.5 (+106 Matchbook *2 units)
Another game where the math makes a little sense, but the change at QB for the Chiefs only help the issue. Huard at QB should improve the offense, and Denver has stopped no one in the air. KC has only scored a average of 10.7 points per game, but Denver has allowed a crazy 28 points per game. Bowe, Gonzo, Huard and LJ are going to find a nice comfort in going against a horrible Denver defense. Denver's offense on the other hand has scored a crazy 38 points per game, and should have no problem doing the same against the Chiefs. Lets assume they both average the same points scored....they still hit the over by 2 points, now add the fact they are both going against softer defenses than they have played all year, and this should hit the over easily.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans UNDER 36 (-106 Matchbook *1 unit)
I am not in love with this play, but the two teams haven't scored much and both love the run the ball. That being said, they are both two of the strongest run defenses in the league and should hold each other's ground game in check. Really a 10-7 game here shouldn't surprise anyone. Going back to the numbers of the game so far this season, Tennessee's defense has only allowed a whopping 9.7 points per game. Minnesota's defense similarly has only allowed 17 points per game. And neither team has the offense to change these numbers in the wrong direction.
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Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB ML (+116 Matchbook *3 units)
Green Bay and Tampa Bay may both be 2-1, but the last time TB played someone with an offense was back in their week 1 loss to New Orleans. Tampa beat Atlanta and Chicago still giving up 24 points to a horrible Chicago offense. Green Bay should be able to control this game and come out with a win. Really a spread of +1 does you no good, so I am just taking the ML here.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati CIN -3.5 (+113 Matchbook *2 units)
Cleveland has shown no life on the offensive side of the ball, Anderson may not even finish the game as the QB, Lewis can't run through anything and Braylon Edwards has a horrible case of the drops. Cincy has found an offense in Chris Perry, and Palmer has regained some confidence with a good game against the Giants last week.
Let me know what you think!
And I doubled down on this after hearing that Palmer was out.