Front Page NFL Picks (Sun, Sep 28)

[Willie Bee]

Green Bay Packers +1 to slash Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Time: 09/28/2008 01:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Brian Griese passed for 407 yards last week, but don't expect a replay of that career day here. Instead, look for Aaron Rodgers to post the big numbers this time.

The Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers renew their Bay of Pigs rivalry from the old NFL Central days this week, and we look for the cold-climate Packers to prevail in the Florida heat.

The Buccaneers have been a pleasant surprise at 2-1, and they could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead in their only loss at New Orleans. Still, Brian Griese is coming off of a career day in a 27-24 overtime victory vs. the Chicago Bears, passing for 407 years while throwing the ball an ungodly 67 times.

Simply put, Griese is not good enough to have two solid games in a row, and if the Tampa Bay running game gets stuffed again, we feel that the Bucs would be in for a very long day. Do not forget that for all the yardage that Griese passed for last week, he did also toss three interceptions.

Meanwhile, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers must be salivating at the opportunity to pass against a Tampa Bay secondary that was shredded b Kyle Orton of all people last week. If the likes of Brandon Lloyd could garner 134 receiving yards vs. the Bucs, how are they supposed to contain the duo of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver?

The answer is probably that they cannot, so look for Rodgers to pass the Pack to a big road win.

Free Pick: Packers +1 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Kansas City Chiefs +10 to cover vs. Denver Broncos

Game Time: 09/28/2008 01:00 PM -
By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

Sure, Kansas City is a bad football team. But Denver has no business laying this many points on the road. Take the Chiefs and the points when they host the Broncos.

As bad as Kansas City has been so far this season, it is still not wise to lay more than a touchdown on the road in the NFL, especially against teams with horrible records (more reason for the road favorite to letdown). Winless home underdogs of more than seven points are 45-24-2 ATS since 1980 and Kansas City also applies to an 84-40-3 ATS home underdog situation that plays on bad teams.

Denver, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 27-72-1 ATS road letdown situation following two high-scoring close victories over San Diego and New Orleans. The Broncos are also just 5-21 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points following a win in the post-John Elway era.

Kansas City also gets a lift offensively with Damon Huard back at quarterback replacing Tyler Thigpen, who goes down on the list of all-time worst starting quarterbacks. Thigpen completed just 41% of his passes for a horrendous 3.2 yards per pass play and Huard should be a couple of yards per pass play better than that given his career 5.5 yppp average, which is also his average since the beginning of last season. Huard also has a history of taking care of the football, as evidenced by his career 2.7% interception percentage (3.2% is about average and Thigpen threw 4 picks on 69 passes (5.8%)).

Denver’s defense has been horrible so far, as the Broncos have allowed 7.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. The Chiefs are capable of scoring a decent number of points with Huard at quarterback but the Chiefs’ defense has allowed 6.1 yppl to three mediocre or bad offensive teams (NE, Oak, Atl) and the Broncos have been lighting it up offensively (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team).

My ratings favor Denver by 10½ points and using this year’s games only would favor the Broncos by 11½ points (after adjusting for Huard at quarterback for KC). The lack of line value will keep me from making the Chiefs a best bet, but I clearly lean with the big home dog here and I’d consider Kansas City a strong opinion at +10 points or more.

Prediction: Denver-28 Kansas City-23

Free Pick: Chiefs +10 or more

[Willie Bee]

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Chicago Bears

Game Time: 09/28/2008 08:15 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Eagles are off a nice bounceback win over the Steelers while the Bears coughed up a chance for victory to the Bucs at home. Play Philadelphia Sunday night at Chicago.

The (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) Philadelphia Eagles stroll into Soldier Field for a Week 4 battle with the (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) Chicago Bears riding high after dominating the Pittsburgh Steelers at “The Linc” last Sunday. The same can’t be said about Chicago who choked another one away in the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Philadelphia has dominated the last six of the recent series going 5-1 SU but just 3-3 ATS.

Philadelphia bounced back in style off its MNF loss to division rival Dallas their last time out against in-state rival Pittsburgh. Even though the 15-6 final verdict doesn’t portray a beatdown, don’t let the final score deceive you. Philly dominated from the onset limiting the Steelers to less than 200 total yards of offense, forced three turnovers, and sacked Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger nine freaking times.

The nine-point victory cashed Philly bettors tickets laying the 3.5-points, and the combined 21 points never seriously threatened the closing ‘total’ of 44.5. The ATS cash was the birds third straight to start their ‘08 campaign, and they’ve rattled off six straight pointspread covers per the closing NFL lines.

Last week's OT loss at home to Tampa was extremely tough for Chicago to swallow, but even more so for NFL sportsbettors that backed them as three-point home chalk. The Bears held a 10-point lead with less than four minutes to go in the game, but somehow managed to allow Brian Griese and the Bucs offense to rattle off 10 straight points to force the extra session. After the defense pinned the Bucs deep in their own territory, CB Charles Tillman got caught defending his teammate and got flagged for unnecessary roughness allowing the Bucs drive to continue. Already exhausted, the Bears “D” let up a number of big pass plays that allowed Matt Bryant to nail the chip shot eight yarder to seal the Bears fate.

Chicago’s now a pathetic 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games; look for Donovan McNabb and the “Iggles” to avenge last year's shocking home loss with ease.

Free Pick: Eagles -3 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Buffalo Bills & St. Louis Rams stay Under 42

Game Time: 09/28/2008 04:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

With both the Bills and Rams finishing over the mark last week, that has helped to drive this total up a bit giving the Under solid value when St. Louis hosts Buffalo.

This week we've got the 3-0 Bills traveling to St. Louis to take on the 0-3 Rams. Buffalo has scored the most points in the AFC East, while allowing the fewest. Conversely, the Rams have allowed the most points in the NFC, while scoring the fewest.

Both teams finished above the total last week. That helped keep this week's line above the key number 41, which I feel is providing us with solid value. The line is currently 42 at most books.

St. Louis will try to do whatever it takes to control the ball and keep the Bills' offense off the field after three straight terrible defensive performances to start its season. Regardless of the Rams' overall struggles, Steven Jackson is still a capable back and he should see plenty of action. Jackson, who was limited in Wednesday's practice due to a sore groin, is expected to be fine for Sunday. He had 28 touches last week (including receptions), and if the Rams can stay a little closer he should get even more than that this week.

Meanwhile, the Bills are averaging 28.3 rushing attempts per game so far, which is slightly above the league average. As we all know, a heavy dose of the ground game from both teams helps keep the clock moving.

I think it was probably a wise move to insert Trent Green in at quarterback seeing how St. Louis managed a mere 29 points in three games (no other NFC team has scored less than 54). That being said, things aren't nearly the same in St. Louis as they were when Green was here back in 1999 and 2000. The "greatest show on turf" is a distant memory. Jim Haslett's defense should get a boost from the return of defensive end Leonard Little who missed the last two games with a sore hamstring. Little was limited in practice Wednesday but reportedly returned to full action on Thursday.

Buffalo still relies heavily on its defense to win football games. That's particularly true when the Bills are away from Ralph Wilson Stadium. Buffalo limited Jacksonville to 16 points en route to a 20-16 victory in its lone road game this season. That game snuck below the number bringing the under to 4-0 the Bills' last four road games and 8-2 the last 10. The Bills finished with 24 points last weekend against the Raiders but they had just seven heading into the fourth quarter.

Bettors shouldn't underestimate the significance of Roscoe Parrish's absence. The speedster is a special-teams monster and a solid option in the passing game. He set a Buffalo record and led the NFL in punt return average last year and he was already third this season at 15.2. Add it all up and I feel that the number is fairly generous. Consider the Under.

Free Pick: Bills-Rams Under 42 (-110)

[hakrjak]

Love the Phily & Green Bay picks. Can't wait for tomorrow to start!

- Hakrjak