Big 4 unit play Friday....

Poker_Beast · 09-24-08, 12:00 AM

I'm in - GL BJ!

dwaechte · 09-24-08, 02:19 AM

Edmonton +1.5 is actually my best bet this week. I'm not sure beating Toronto and Hamilton constitutes surging. All year, and still, it's been widely believed that there was a major gap between the top 5 teams(The West and Montreal) and the bottom 3(Win, Tor, Ham) Edmonton's had a couple straight poor outings, and are slightly injury plagued, but they've been remarkably better than Winnipeg over the course of the year in almost all predictive categories.

All that being said, my numbers and opinion are so far off this line that I have to be missing something.

BlackJack · 09-24-08, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by dwaechte

Edmonton +1.5 is actually my best bet this week. I'm not sure beating Toronto and Hamilton constitutes surging. All year, and still, it's been widely believed that there was a major gap between the top 5 teams(The West and Montreal) and the bottom 3(Win, Tor, Ham) Edmonton's had a couple straight poor outings, and are slightly injury plagued, but they've been remarkably better than Winnipeg over the course of the year in almost all predictive categories.

All that being said, my numbers and opinion are so far off this line that I have to be missing something.

you bring up some good points, and there is no such thing as a SURE THING, which is why I never will risk more than 4% (4 units) of bankroll on any one play.

2 weeks ago, Winnipeg beat Toronto 39-9 in Toronto, now we all know that toronto is a team in shambles, so the victory in and of itself is not that impressive, but the margin of victory is quite big here (39-9), I was actually on Toronto this game as it was the first game with their new coach Don Mathews. Toronto went on to lose 4-34 in Calgary one of the premier teams in the league, so it can be argued that Winnpegs 39-9 victory in Toronto was more impressive than Calgary's 34-4 victory over Torono in their own barn. What I am trying to say is that Winnipeg beat Toronto by the same or greater margin than most teams have been beating Toronto this year.

Last week winnipeg beat Hamilton 25-23 and Hamiltion now sits at 2-12 (I think). So yes, they barely beat a terrible team, but to me it is still 2 victories in a row, back to back on the road, and Hamilton to me is not as bad as their record indicates, I have seen all of their games this year, and one thing I can tell you is that there is no quit in that team, so despite the fact that they lost to Winnipeg, they certainly didnt "lay down". And winnipeg had to find a way to win. Remeber, Edmonton also BARELY BEAT hamilton 38-33 on September 13th, and that game was IN EDMONTON, not Hamilon. All I am trying to say here is that suggesting a win against hamilton doesnt mean anything is wrong, a win is a win.

In sports I try to look at 'What have you done for me lately" as well as "Confidence". Winnipeg should be coming into this game high in the confidence department, wheras I would imagine, with injuries, the beating they took in montreal, and the VERY VERY short (5 day week) that Edmonton is not coming into this game with the most confidence. Of course, it only takes one or two big plays to change momentum and to regain confidence, but coming into the game, I would suggest that Winnipeg has much more of it than Edmonton at this time.

Of course, it is often difficult to come home after back to back road games, and I hope WInnipeg doesnt let down here, but due to their poor start at the beginning of the year, I have to beleive this will not happen

dwaechte · 09-24-08, 03:53 PM

I think you're putting a little too much emphasis on the scores rather than other more predictive factors from previous games. I would say that Edmonton outplayed Hamilton more than Winnipeg did, despite the fact that Winnipeg probhably should've won that game by more than 2. We also place a different amount of importance on "momentum", but that's subjective so I can't really argue.

BlackJack · 09-24-08, 05:29 PM

another note that I will make now before it is too late. For the most part, I am able to forecast the direction of Line movement in the CFL quite accuratly. Like anything else knowing which way the line will go is 1/2 the battle, regadless of who is playing.

Last week when Winnipeg beat Hamilton by 2 points, beleive it or not within hours of the game, you were finding -1.5 and +2.5 at various shops, the game actually hit right on the middle, and some poor souls actually lost laying -2.5

Anyway, my guy tells me that this game will get more expensive if you like winnipeg as we get closer to game time, and less expensive if you like Edmonton. I have a funny feeling this will go to winnipeg -2.5 and eventually -3.

This is why I hammerred the -1 for more than I intend to hold, and already managed to buy a little bit back at +3 -110 at Carib. I can see the market trending that way anyway.

A few weeks ago, I had calgary +3 I think, but the line got better before game time which really suprised me, and then Calgary +3.5 was hammerred right at game time. That was one of the few times I was wrong about a CFL line forecast, but for the most part my guy (and line services) guide me in the right direction.

BlackJack · 09-26-08, 06:10 PM

as predicted in post # 6.

+3 for EDMONTON is now widely available.

Rarely am i wrong on a CFL forecast prediction.

BlackJack · 09-26-08, 06:22 PM

#S-12673572
09/26 07:21 pm -$ 550.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $ 500.00 Edmonton Eskimos vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers (Week 14) Edmonton Eskimos +3.5

WOOOOOOOOOOOO

EDMONTON NOW +3.5.....

BlackJack · 09-26-08, 06:23 PM

for clarification, I am still on Winnipeg Very Big, but now also have a decent shot at the middle, hence the +3.5 wager

Poker_Beast · 09-26-08, 09:03 PM

Winnipeg looking good so far!!

BlackJack · 09-26-08, 09:12 PM

we have been a bit lucky for sure with a 72 yard bomb for a TD to end the first (PAT MISSED).

and we got a kickoff runback for a TD in the 2nd.

Edmonton has just scored tho, so this game is far from over.

21-16 right now 3rd quarter is officially over now.

Poker_Beast · 09-26-08, 09:19 PM

Wow, can't get it here so watching score on CFL website

BlackJack · 09-26-08, 09:23 PM

we just missed our third field Goal, so in that sense we are really unlucky I guess. They did get the single point on two of the FG's. But still, that is 7 points left on the board.

aaaargghhhhh...... very long methodical drive just resulted in only 1 point for winnipeg.

BlackJack · 09-26-08, 09:24 PM

link to watch game:

http://channelsurfing.net/watch-tsn.html

Poker_Beast · 09-26-08, 09:24 PM

That sucks!!!!

Poker_Beast · 09-26-08, 09:25 PM

Thanks for the link

Poker_Beast · 09-26-08, 09:27 PM

Nice hold there

Poker_Beast · 09-26-08, 09:41 PM

Great turnover there!!

Poker_Beast · 09-26-08, 10:09 PM

Congrats BJ - thanks for letting me tail you on my first CFL game!

BlackJack · 09-26-08, 10:11 PM

We got ourselves a winner.....

I almost hit the middle, but Winnipeg scored the TD late instead of FG

BlackJack · 09-26-08, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by Poker_Beast

Congrats BJ - thanks for letting me tail you on my first CFL game!

hey no problem.....

hopefully its the first of many!!!

dwaechte · 09-30-08, 01:16 AM

Congrats on this play by the way, sorry that you hedged out a bit.

Although I'm still not sold that Winnipeg was the right play in this game(I would say that there wasn't really a strong play at the prices being offered and that it could've gone either way), I will certainly admit that I had this one pegged wrong and that the line I set myself was off.

It'll be interesting to see how the matchup between these two teams turns out next week.