2-team parlays are the only way to go.

[keystonekid]

I can not see any way to win or profit on money-lines, ATS, Teasers, or O/U's. The only way I can see to get ahead is to do 2-team parlays. I have studied this for years. Nobody I point this out to agrees with me. What am I missing here? You get x2.6 on each play, so all you have to do is be 30% on your picks to profit. Everything else you have to be at 55-60% correct just to get a marginal profit. Someone explain to me why I am wrong. Thanks.

[Sandro777]

i've had some good outcomes with doing the best 2 games of the weekend. I like to mix one NCAA and one pro, or sometimes 2 of one and one the other.

[Robust]

well... you might be right.. but as a bettor.. you HAVE TO BE RIGHT for you to profit.. i did 2 2-team parlays.. lost them both.. LOL

if you ARE right.. then this will work... and let me in on the picks so i can ride your coattails.. LOL


Robust

[BAMA_LJG3]

I do something similar but with a straight wager and a reverse. I do a straight up on one of the wagers (preferably an "over", hardly ever with an "under") which I refer to as the "hedge". I then put that wager with another wager (maybe a "side" for example) in a reverse with the second wager being referred to as the "backside". I do the same amount on each wager.

For example using $100 on both the straight wager (hedge) and the reverse, here are the 4 possible scenarios:

Hedge - L -$110
Reverse (front side - same as hedge) - L -$110
Reverse (backside) - L -$110
Total - L -$330

Hedge - L -$110
Reverse (front side - same as hedge) - L -$120
Reverse (backside) - W +$100
Total - L -$230

Hedge - W +$100
Reverse (front side - same as hedge) - W +$100
Reverse (backside) - L -$120
Total - L -$20

Hedge - W +$100
Reverse (front side - same as hedge) - W +$200
Reverse (backside) - W +$200
Total - W +$500

Strategy is to go at least 50% hitting the hedge worst case scenario but hopefully hit both sides at least every 3rd one.

Not saying anything is wrong with your wagering strategy, just sharing how I bet 2 teams.

[VegasDave]

Well, in order to be "right", you have to be right TWICE.

You say you only have to be "right" 30% of the time, but if each game has a 55% chance of winning, thats .55 X .55 = .3025, or 30.25% chance of hitting on 2 55% games.

Books do not give away free money.

GL though in whatever you bet.

[element1286]

Well, in order to be "right", you have to be right TWICE.

You say you only have to be "right" 30% of the time, but if each game has a 55% chance of winning, thats .55 X .55 = .3025, or 30.25% chance of hitting on 2 55% games.

Books do not give away free money.

GL though in whatever you bet.

Right, so if you are betting two teamers and winning then you should be able to beat single bets just as easily.

As the standard line on a game is -110, which would mean you would only have to win 52.38% of the time to break even.

[keystonekid]

I posted these 3 2-teamer parlays yesterday.

Tampa Bay +3 Over 35
100 to win 300
Tampa Bay 27 Chicago 24 51pts WIN + 300

Carolina +3- Over 37-
100 to win 232
Minnesota 20 Carolina 10 30pts LOSS -100

Left to play:
New Orleans +6 Over 52
100 to win 272
New Orleans 32 Denver 34 66pts WIN +272

Net winnings: +472

That is 2-1 67%, but if it were 1-2 33% It still would have made something. I am just saying a 1-2 ATS would be -120

[MonkeyF0cker]

Uhh. You'd be picking twice as many games in the two team parlays so comparing 1-2 in 2-teamers to 1-2 ATS isn't a fair comparison. You could also go 1-2 on 2-teamers, where you would have been 4-2 ATS...

[HedgeHog]

I posted these 3 2-teamer parlays yesterday.

Tampa Bay +3 Over 35
100 to win 300
Tampa Bay 27 Chicago 24 51pts WIN + 300

Carolina +3- Over 37-
100 to win 232
Minnesota 20 Carolina 10 30pts LOSS -100

Left to play:
New Orleans +6 Over 52
100 to win 272
New Orleans 32 Denver 34 66pts WIN +272

Net winnings: +472

That is 2-1 67%, but if it were 1-2 33% It still would have made something. I am just saying a 1-2 ATS would be -120

A sample size of three bets isn't reliable. Do 100 pars and see if you can hit 30% or better. Doubt you can do it.

[Bluehorseshoe]

You get cheated on the odds with parlays. You're better off straight betting.

$100 two team parlay pays $260.

Roughly, if you risked the same $100 and bet it straight on something and won, it would pay $90 and change. If you pressed the $190 on another bet that was laying -$110, you would win about $263 total.

You're losing about $3 per $100 bet with 2 team parlays.

[marcoforte]

Break-even on 2t parlays are half a percent higher at 52.7%. If your handicapping is not at that level on each team, you will lose at double the rate of single betting. It's all about leverage 2x both upside and downside. If you pick at 60% your rate of return is 14.5% for straights and 29.6% for 2t parlays. Conversely if your picks are at 45%, your rate of return is-14% for straights and -27% for 2t parlays.

Psychologically, you will have more losing weeks with 2t parlays but your bankroll may be fatter than playing straights.

Six of one, half dozen of the other.

Stats courtesy of Don P's book.

[keystonekid]

Ahh. Good point.

Everybody tells me I am wrong about it.

[VegasDave]

Again Keystone, they wouldn't offer and ENCOURAGE parlays if they were easier to beat then straight betting.

The only edge I have found in parlays are correlated ones. But not only the kind that most books don't take, I mean correlations that you put together yourself.

Here's a perfect example taken from my Week 3 picks;

"Hmmm... for those of you teaser/parlay players that agree with me on North Texas +42...

Might as well parlay/tease it with the UNDER. Just saw this was at 59.5.

North Texas doesn't have a chance to put up much more then 10, do they? As such, if the final is 10 - 49, you have a cover and an under. Likely will be even lower.

Teasing this to North Texas +49, Under 66.5 looks even better."

Final score was 42 - 3 LSU.

This is not an exact science, but it is a good way to bet parlays. If you like, say, Cincinnati Bengals to cover against Dallas, you might as well parlay Cincy with the OVER, because you know damn well that Cincy won't contain Dallas and will have to keep up in order for you to win. As such, if Cincy hits, its very likely the over hits too.

Conversely, you like Tennessee to cover against Dallas. Might as well parlay this with the under; you are not expecting the Titans to shoot out with Dallas, you are expecting the D to come up big.

[Sinister Cat]

This is not an exact science, but it is a good way to bet parlays. If you like, say, Cincinnati Bengals to cover against Dallas, you might as well parlay Cincy with the OVER, because you know damn well that Cincy won't contain Dallas and will have to keep up in order for you to win. As such, if Cincy hits, its very likely the over hits too.

Conversely, you like Tennessee to cover against Dallas. Might as well parlay this with the under; you are not expecting the Titans to shoot out with Dallas, you are expecting the D to come up big.

are you aware of any book that will let you do this?

[VegasDave]

are you aware of any book that will let you do this?

Most books will not let you bet true correlated parlays, such as 1st half OVER game OVER...

But I think most/all books will let you parlay a total and a side in football. My biggest play of the year by far was week 1 When I took the Rice/SMU OVER and Rice -3.5... sure enough, 55 - 27 Rice.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/97183-guys-get-rice-over-me.html?highlight=RICE+SMU+OVER

Lots of money to be made in these types of parlay but they don't come around every week, you can't force them.

[SlappyWhite]

I can not see any way to win or profit on money-lines, ATS, Teasers, or O/U's. The only way I can see to get ahead is to do 2-team parlays. I have studied this for years. Nobody I point this out to agrees with me. What am I missing here? You get x2.6 on each play, so all you have to do is be 30% on your picks to profit. Everything else you have to be at 55-60% correct just to get a marginal profit. Someone explain to me why I am wrong. Thanks.

From a strictly math mathematical sense a 2 team parlay has 4 possible ways to play the and only one pays 2.6. That favors the house pretty heavily compared to a strait up -110.

To clarify 4 ways to play in a given wager style, be it totals or ATS.

[jjgold]

No parlays are the way to go but I guess if you are going to bet them the 2 teamers are the best.

[keystonekid]

I guess what you guys are saying that a 2-team parlay has 4 different types of bets. ex. team1/over, team1/under,team2/over, or team2/under.

Another way to look at it, is 2 different bets: 1(Team1 or Team2) and 2(Over or Under).