BENGALS
Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants Game Time: 9/21/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals *Non-Conference GOM
UNDER lions/49ers
Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Time: 9/21/2008 4:05:00 PM Prediction: under *Annihilator
UNDER packers/cowboys
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Game Time: 9/21/2008 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under *Main Event
Burns
BENGALS
Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants Game Time: 9/21/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Reason: I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. The defending champs are off to an impressive 2-0 SU/ATS start while the Bengals have struggled out of the gate, going 0-2 SU/ATS. As you probably know, the lines on defending Super Bowl champions are typically quite high to begin with. The fact that the Giants now also come in as the hotter team has caused this line to be extremely high. I believe that it's too high. Note that the last time that the Giants were laying a number in this range was way back in 2006 when they were -13 point home favorites vs. Houston. (The Giants won by only four points.) Keep in mind that this is a team which has won by playing strong defense, not by blowing teams away. That's great for winning games but doesn't necessarily help when trying to cover two touchdown pointspreads. In fact, prior to last week's blowout win over the Rams (which was close for much of the way) the Giants had seen seven straight games decided by 10 points or less. Even including the victory over the Rams, the Giants have still only won two of their past 15 games by double-digits. It's true that Cincinnati's off-field problems have been well-documented. Those "issues" have further helped to keep this line generously high. The Bengals' still has plenty of talent though. They entered the season with fairly lofty expectations and they know that falling to 0-3 will be a very tough hole to climb out of. As a result, I expect them to play with a real sense of desperation. As QB Palmer had to say: "It seems like it's the end of the world to a lot of people. This team has a lot of hope left. We have a lot to play for, a lot of pride. The Giants started 0-2 (last season). A lot can be done from 0-2." The Bengals have only been underdogs in this range once since back in 2000. That came in 2002, when they were +13.5 dogs at Indianapolis. The Bengals covered the spread in that game (lost by 7) and are a highly profitable 9-3 ATS the last 12 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points overall. Look for them to improve on those numbers, giving the defending champs a much tougher game than most are expecting. *Non-Conference GOM
UNDER lions/49ers
Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Time: 9/21/2008 4:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the 49'ers and Lions to finish UNDER the total. It's true that the Lions have a ton of points through the first two games and also that the 49'ers are coming off a high-scoring game vs. the 49'ers. Those results have caused this number to be very high and it's also been bet up from its opening number, providing us with excellent value. The earlier results have come against vastly different opponents and in the Lions' case, they've been forced to abandon the running game early due to falling behind each game. Make no mistake though - the Lions want to run the ball. They also want to control the clock. Last week's game got out of hand. However, the final score appears a lot worse than it really was, as the Packers ran back two interceptions for touchdowns in the final three minutes. The score also doesn't show that the Lions' defenders were actually playing quite well to begin the game. They got pressure on Aaron Rodgers twice on third and long and both times they nearly had the sack. If they had gotten him on either of those plays, that game likely would have been much lower-scoring. In both cases, Rodgers barely escaped and was able to complete a big play. Afterwards, things snowballed. However, my point is that I watched the game closely (a few times now) and there were positive signs evident on the defensive side of the ball, which aren't seen in the boxscore. While San Francisco J.T. O'Sullivan has been playing well, it's still a little too early to be calling him the next great 49'ers QB. Additionally, with offensive coordinator Martz leaving Detroit for San Francisco, both teams are still quite new to their offensive systems. While Martz has the 49'ers throwing the ball more this year, running back Frank Gore still remains a focal point of the offense and one game doesn't prove that Martz is quite as pass-happy as he was several years ago. Note that the 49'ers have seen the UNDER go 10-3 since 2006 when playing a game with an over/under line in the 42.5 to 49 range. As for the Lions, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 15-5-1 their last 21 road games with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49. These teams last met in 2006 and combined for just 32 points. Look for the final score to be much lower-scoring than expected once again. *Annihilator
UNDER packers/cowboys
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Game Time: 9/21/2008 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Green Bay and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. Last week's results have helped cause tonight's over/under line to be extremely high - the highest on the Week 3 board. I believe that it's too high. It's important not to over-react to one week. Yes, these teams have shown they can score. They aren't going to score the type of points they did last week every time out though. Additionally, we've seen that both defenses are capable of being excellent. Prior to Monday's shootout, the Cowboys had gone into Cleveland and limited the Browns to 10 points and 205 total yards. As for the Packers, they held the Vikings to just three first half points in Week 1 and repeated that performance by limiting the Lions to just three first half points last week. A quick look at the Packers' last 20 home games shows that NONE of them had an over/under line greater than 46.5 points. Seventeen of those 20 games produced 48 combined points or less. As for the Cowboys, they've only seen one of their past 20 road games have an over/under line above 50 - a December game at Detroit last year which had an over/under line of 50.5. Fourteen of those 20 games produced 51 combined points or less. The last three all finished UNDER the total with scores of 20-13, 27-6 and 28-10. Look for this evening's game to prove lower-scoring than expected once again as the final combined score stays beneath the inflated number. *Main Event
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#3
ACE ACE /ALAN EASTMAN
$2500.00 -115 #400 Take Washington (-3) over Arizona (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
Last year the Redskins built a 21-6 lead against the Cardinals before holding off a late rally to win by just two points. They were better than Arizona last year and they are better than them right now. Washington has already played the defending Super Bowl champions and a very tricky New Orleans team to get to 1-1, while the Cardinals have inflated value due to their 2-0 mark. However, their two wins came against the lowly Dolphins and 49ers. Arizona has to travel two time zones east and catch an early kickoff, which I think could doom them to another slow start. The ?Skins have won seven of nine in this series. Kurt Warner has been efficient and has put up strong numbers, but this will be by far the best defense and the best secondary that he has seen this year. Washington is 20-8-1 ATS against a team with a winning record and Jim Zorn?s familiarity with scheming the Cardinals personnel will pay off for the Redskins.
$600.00 -102 #403 Take Tampa Bay (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
The Bears erratic quarterback play will again sink them and I expect at least two turnovers out of Kyle Orton this weekend. The Bears are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and I think they will suffer a bit of a letdown after their crushing loss at Carolina last week. Former Bear Brian Griese is used to going up against this Chicago defense ? he did it every day for two years in practice ? and I think he?ll exploit that unit.
$2500.00 -107 ?Under? 44 St. Louis at Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
St. Louis is just 2-7 against the total in its last nine road games and they simply cannot get out of their own way on offense. Seattle is, literally, bringing in wide receivers off the street to suit up for them and Matt Hasselbeck can only do so much by himself. I actually think that both defenses are better than the numbers indicate and that their inflated Points Against numbers are the result of some garbage time scores and defensive or special teams touchdowns. Both offenses, though, are as bad as they?ve looked and they?ve combined to average just 28 points per game. One of my systems suggests that we have an advantage of 25 points on this line!
$400.00 -107 ?Under? 42 Jacksonville at Indianapolis (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
Both offensive lines are undergoing severe attrition and both defensive lines should have a field day. Neither offense has moved the ball efficiently in its first two games, with the Jags averaging just 13.0 points and Indy just 15.5. Both defenses have been sound though, as they two units have combined to give up just 40.5 points per game to start the year. I think that the Jaguars are going to rededicate themselves to the running game in this one, and that usually doesn't lead to an eruption of points. Both teams are feeling the pinch of slow starts and we expect both coaches to be extra conservative in this key divisional game.
$600.00 -102 #394 Take Buffalo (-9.5) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
This one is simply a case of playing the better side on two teams headed in opposite directions. The Raiders have injury issues on offense and plenty of off-field distractions, ranging from their head coach?s shaky job status to off-field arrests. Buffalo is a sparkling 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall. We?ll ride the hot team from Upstate New York.
$600.00 -109 NewYork Jets (+9.5) over San Diego (8:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 22)
This is simply too many points for a primetime matchup between two relatively even matched teams. The Jets are 8-2 ATS as a Monday Night Football underdog and I think they will be able to move the ball against a suddenly porous Chargers defense. San Diego has lost two heart breakers and now everyone expects an "angry" team to coe back and get a win. Well, the Jets are not a pushover and it's not as if the Chargers can just "turn it on" and earn a blowout. The bottom line is that they lost two games to two non-playoff teams from last year and they have shown us very little offensively (especially if LT is not 100 percent) that suggests they will run away with this one. The Jets have covered four straight in this series and I think that the Favre Magic will give us the cash on MNF.
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#4
POWERSWEEP
4* San Francisco 31 over Detroit 20
3* Atlanta 20 over Kansas City 10
2* Miami 13 (+) over Patriots 20
2* Cleveland 14 over Baltimore 10
3* Texans/Titans Under 37'
3* Steelers/Eagles Over 43*
3* Lions/49ers Over 44
2* Browns/Ravens Under 38*
2* Cardinals/Redskins Over 42
Pro Angles: 3* Buffalo, Arizona, Carolina,
System: Tennessee
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#5
Larry Ness
NFL 25*
Was Redskins at 1:00 ET.
Larry Ness | NFL Total
double-dime bet410 SFX / 409 DET Over 46.5
Analysis:
Jon Kitna opened his big mouth last year and "guaranteed" that the Lions would win 10 games. Detroit did open 6-2 but finished the season only 7-9 after losing SEVEN of its final eight games. With Favre gone to the Jets plus the Bears and Vikings entering this year with question marks, the Lions had high hopes again to open '08. However, Detroit is off to an 0-2 start and its defense has been just DREADFUL. The Lions got Atlanta in Week 1, a team starting a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) and Green Bay in Week 2, off a big MNF win over the Vikings and with its QB (Aaron Rodgers) making just his second career start. Ryan didn't have a HUGE game but the Falcons rolled to 474 yards while scoring 34 points, while Rodgers was 24-of-38 for 328 yards (three TDs and no INTs) for the Packers, as they had 447 total yards and scored 48 points. Kitna has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his two seasons as Detroit's starting QB and the Lions have gone 'over' in six of their eight road games in both '06 and '07. That's in part due to Detroit's offensive capabilities but has as much, if not more to do, with Detroit's poor defensive play. The Lions allowed an average of 28.1 PPG on the road last year and 34.5 PPG last season. In Week 1 at Atlanta, the Lions allowed 34 points. Sunday, the Lions visit San Francisco and their former OC, Mike Martz. Martz is running the 49ers offense now and he saw JT O'Sullivan (in just his second career start), lead the 49ers back in Seattle. The 49ers beat the Seahawks 33-30 (in OT) last week, as O'Sullivan completed 20-of-32 passes for 321 yards (one TD and no INTs). Frank Gore (157 yards / 4.8 YPC) has run for 1,695 yards in '06 and 1,102 last year and should LOVE facing a Detroit team which has allowed an NFL-worst 220.5 YPG on the ground in the season's first two games. Any thoughts that WR Issac Bruce was "washed up" were dispelled in Seattle, as the man with 946 career catches (84 TDs) caught four balls for 153 yards. WR Bryant Johnson, who spent the last few years behind Boldin and Fitzgerald in Arizona, looks as if he's ready for a big year in "the Martz system," opening with nine catches in two games. Speaking of WRs, the Lions are loaded with them in Calvin Johnson (13 catches / 18.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Roy Williams (6 catches / 15.8 YPC), McDonald (79 catches LY) and Furrey (61 catches LY / 98 catches in '06). This game could be 'over' by halftime. Week 3 Total of the Week 15* Det/SF Over.
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#6
Dr. Bob
NFL
I was really looking forward to handicapping this week's NFL card after going 2-0 on my Best Bets and 5-0 on my Strong Opinions last week. However, there isn't anything this week that I liked enough to bet, so I'm passing. I do have two strong opinions (Washington and SF). The number of Best Bets is always low in the first few weeks of the season but it picks up when my math model kicks in in week 5.
Strong Opinion
WASHINGTON (-3.0) 23 Arizona 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Sep-08
My ratings favor Washington by 6 ? points and the Cardinals apply to a negative 123-190-6 ATS statistical profile indicator. I?ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at -3 or less (-120 or less) and I?d take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ? or less (-115 odds or better). I?ll also lean under on the basis of a 55-19-2 Under situation.
Strong Opinion
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.0) 28 Detroit 19
01:05 PM Pacific, 21-Sep-08
Unfortunately, San Francisco applies to a negative 21-58-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset win last week, so I?ll resist making this game a Best Bet. I?ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less.
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#7
B!G @L
NFL B-L-O-W-O-U-T OF THE MONTH
At 8:15 PM, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers plus the points over the Dallas Cowboys. Although I've been critical of the Green Bay management for not taking back Brett Favre, I must tip my cap to Aaron Rodgers, who has played extremely well in his two starts vs. Minnesota and Detroit. And perhaps it isn't all that big of a surprise, given that Rodgers played very well last season against these Cowboys after Favre went down with an injury. In last year's game, Rodgers was 18 for 26 for 201 yards and a TD, without any turnovers. And this season, he's completed 70% of his passes, without any interceptions. Off that win at Detroit, the Packers fall into 82-27 and 52-13 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams off road wins. Also, Green Bay has won 10 of its last 11 regular season home games, and the Cowboys are 0-5 in their franchise's history at Lambeau Field, with four of those five losses coming by 18+ points. NFL Blowout of the Month on Green Bay.
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#8
The Goldsheet
NFL Key Releases (2-4, 33%)
HOUSTON TEXANS +5
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
NEW YORK JETS/SAN DIEGO CHARGERS OVER 44
Houston 20 - TENNESSEE 13?Even without the unexpected ?bye? week and distractions caused by Hurricane Ike, Houston figured to have its hands full with the rock?em, sock?em Tennessee defense that was respectfully referred to as some ?animals? by Jag QB David Garrard. But Titans still seeking to develop consistency under new o.c. Heimerdinger?s play-calling, and Kerry Collins is hampered by Tennessee?s WR limitations. SCOUT s still believe rookie RB Steve Slaton could be a rainmaker for Texans. And, now, well-rested, wellcoached Houston eager to avoid 0-2 start and stay close in AFC South race.
(07-Tenn. 38-HOU. 36...T.23-18 T.39/155 H.12/39 H.27/44/3/294 T.25/42/0/267 T.2 H.3)
(07-TENN. 28-Hou. 20...T.23-17 T.29/153 H.25/119 T.21/31/1/229 H.20/35/1/196 T.0 H.1)
(07-Tennessee -1 38-36, TENNESSEE -3' 28-20...SR: Tennessee 10-2)
Carolina 22 - MINNESOTA 13?All of the pieces seem to be in place for Minnesota?except at QB (no wonder owner Zygi Wilf risked tampering charges with his interest in Brett Favre during the summer!). But as long as it?s Tarvaris Jackson, have little interest supporting Vikes vs. quality foes, of which rebounding Carolina (2-0 for first time since ?03 Super Bowl year) certainly qualifies. Tough-minded Panthers and physical Oregon rookie RB J. Stewart (77 YR & 2 TDs vs. rugged Bears) not likely to abandon infantry assault as do most Minnesota foes. Jake Delhomme smiling from Charlotte to Greensboro this week with return of home run WR Steve Smith from suspension, especially vs. Minny secondary.
(06-MINNESOTA P 16-13 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 4-3)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
OVER THE TOTAL *SAN DIEGO 28 - NY Jets 26?Chargers upset about getting the worst of the officiating last week in Denver, and they also greatly miss the intimidating presence of OLB Shawne Merriman, as the remaining S.D. pass rushers were able to apply little pressure last week in Denver, with Jay Cutler sacked only once while passing for 350 yards and 4 TDs, plus the game-winning two-pointer. That gave the Bolts two straight lastsecond losses. With L.T. limping, maybe they don?t pull away from Favre, who can trade throws with Philip Rivers and help put this one ?over.?
(05-San Diego -6 31-26...SR: San Diego 18-12-1)
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#9
MARC LAWRENCE Playbook Best Bets
MARC LAWRENCE Playbook
NFL Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
ARIZONA CARDINALS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 42
NFL Best Bet 4 (1-1, 50%)
HOUSTON TEXANS +5
DETROIT LIONS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Over 46.5
3* NO Saints, Titans over
4* Hou Texans, SF 49ers over
5* Car Panthers, Redskins over
* BEST BET
The Vikings were many a ?Wise Guys? choice to win the NFC North Division
while making their way to the playoffs. A strengthened defense with
a powerful running game made for solid reasoning. Missing from the
equation, though, is a quarterback. When they go down this week it?s safe
to say Tarvaris Jackson will be carrying a clipboard sooner than later. The
Jackson experiment aside, the Panthers have capitalized on the return of
QB Jake Delhomme, vaulting to a 2-0 start sans the services of his best WR
Steven Smith. Like the Terminator, Smith?s back this week and these Cats
are lovin? it. The most mind-boggling stat of all is at work here as Carolina
is 20-1 ATS as a non-division road dog against .550 or less opposition
in their franchise history, including 20 wins in a row! With Game Three
winless favorites of less than 5 points just 3-19-2 ATS since 1990, you?d be
wise to join the guys who realize Carolina is a live Road Cat!
Carolina over MINNESOTA by 10
4* BEST BET
Thanks to Ike the Texans will tackle the Titans with the benefi t of an extra
wink of rest. And if you are winless in the NFL, that?s a nice handicapping
combination. That?s confi rmed by the fact that teams in this league that
have yet to win a game are 32-19-1 ATS when taking points with the
benefi t of an extra week to prepare. More important, Houston needs
this game like blood given Tennessee?s 2-0 start to the season. Jeff Fisher
wears a label as a good dog. When laying points against winless teams
he is just 2-6 ATS in his NFL career, including 1-6 as a single-digit favorite.
Titans drop to 1-7 ATS as September chalk against avenging division foes
here today. Texans get back in the mix of things today.
Houston over TENNESSEE by 7
3* BEST BET
Intent on making more than a point, the man on a mission stamped
himself with a stirring two-point conversion to steal last week?s game
away from San Diego. Mike Shanahan?s job this week will be to keep his
team at the same level they were during the Charger game. That may be
a problem considering the Broncos are in the middle of a season opening
division sandwich. To that extent they are 0-8 ATS in this role (division
games before and after with a non-division game in the middle). They are
also just 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Saints will
gladly comply, sporting a 7-0 ATS mark as road dogs of more than 3 points
off a loss when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS victory. With New
Orleans boss Sean Payton 6-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog against .500 or
better opposition, look for venue to turn into Mile Sigh today.
New Orleans over DENVER by 7
Reason: The Browns are too good of a team to start the season at 0-2 and won't fall to 0-3. After losing to the Cowboys and Steelers Cleveland will be glad to see a weaker opponent in the Baltimore Ravens. In their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record the Browns are 11-1 ATS. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC team's. The Browns are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Ravens are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games. In their last 14 conference games the Ravens are 3-11 ATS. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Cleveland Browns +.
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#11
DAVE COKIN
(415) JAC Jaguars
(416) IND Colts
Take "(416) IND Colts"
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#12
Larry Ness
15* Total of the Week
Jon Kitna opened his big mouth last year and "guaranteed" that the Lions would win 10 games. Detroit did open 6-2 but finished the season only 7-9 after losing SEVEN of its final eight games. With Favre gone to the Jets plus the Bears and Vikings entering this year with question marks, the Lions had high hopes again to open '08. However, Detroit is off to an 0-2 start and its defense has been just DREADFUL. The Lions got Atlanta in Week 1, a team starting a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) and Green Bay in Week 2, off a big MNF win over the Vikings and with its QB (Aaron Rodgers) making just his second career start. Ryan didn't have a HUGE game but the Falcons rolled to 474 yards while scoring 34 points, while Rodgers was 24-of-38 for 328 yards (three TDs and no INTs) for the Packers, as they had 447 total yards and scored 48 points. Kitna has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his two seasons as Detroit's starting QB and the Lions have gone 'over' in six of their eight road games in both '06 and '07. That's in part due to Detroit's offensive capabilities but has as much, if not more to do, with Detroit's poor defensive play. The Lions allowed an average of 28.1 PPG on the road last year and 34.5 PPG last season. In Week 1 at Atlanta, the Lions allowed 34 points. Sunday, the Lions visit San Francisco and their former OC, Mike Martz. Martz is running the 49ers offense now and he saw JT O'Sullivan (in just his second career start), lead the 49ers back in Seattle. The 49ers beat the Seahawks 33-30 (in OT) last week, as O'Sullivan completed 20-of-32 passes for 321 yards (one TD and no INTs). Frank Gore (157 yards / 4.8 YPC) has run for 1,695 yards in '06 and 1,102 last year and should LOVE facing a Detroit team which has allowed an NFL-worst 220.5 YPG on the ground in the season's first two games. Any thoughts that WR Issac Bruce was "washed up" were dispelled in Seattle, as the man with 946 career catches (84 TDs) caught four balls for 153 yards. WR Bryant Johnson, who spent the last few years behind Boldin and Fitzgerald in Arizona, looks as if he's ready for a big year in "the Martz system," opening with nine catches in two games. Speaking of WRs, the Lions are loaded with them in Calvin Johnson (13 catches / 18.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Roy Williams (6 catches / 15.8 YPC), McDonald (79 catches LY) and Furrey (61 catches LY / 98 catches in '06). This game could be 'over' by halftime.
Week 3 Total of the Week 15* Det/SF Over.
Comment
St. Andrew
SBR MVP
02-23-08
2265
#13
Sebastian
20* Hou
30* Jax
30* NO
50* KC
20* Tease NE & DAL/GB under
250* Det on the spread
50* Det on the money line