Sides
Seahawks @ Bills
Play: Seahawks +1
A lot of people deem the Bills as a “sexy” sleeper this year- a young, fiery team that played above their potential last year. The Seahawks on the other hand, is that team primed to fly under the radar, as they are good-not great, old-not young, and just didn’t do enough to get pundits to look their way. That said, they may be the true NFC sleeper team this year.
The departure of Alexander should improve the Seahawks absence. Well past his prime, and providing a style of running that simply was no longer commensurate to the Seahawks depreciating run blocking schemes, Alexander passing the torch to a Jones/Morris combination should add spark to the Seahawks running game this season. Such a notion should come to fruition in game one against a Bills run defense that may appear more potent on paper than on the field. Morris and Jones’ ability to attack the perimeter bodes well, as it can counter the improved Bills interior run defense, while targeting their suspect exterior run defense, which will miss the Crowell. If the Seahawks running game is as successful as I suspect, their passing game will bare a sizeable edge. The Seahawks may not appear to posses a potent passing game, lacking a marquee pass receiver, but this may be one of the more underrated units in the league. A system used to distribute the ball well, expect them to be able to minimize the depreciation in their passing game due to the injuries to Branch and Engram. The lack of depth in the Bills secondary, should allow a spread offense like the Seahawks to increase productivity. Don’t let the Seahawks injuries fool you. Their well oil machine looked ready in pre season, and should capitalize on a defense that may lack cohesiveness this early in the season due to lacking playing experience as a unity together. The Seahawks are primed for success both on the ground as well as in the air this Sunday.
Despite being a defense that showed a huge disparity between home and away production, the Seahawks are a type of defense that can capitalize on a young offense primed for rust no matter where the game is played. Edwards lacked playing time in the preseason, which is not ideal for a young quarterback playing against a fast defense that uses a lot of complex blitzing schemes. It is also not ideal when you are playing without your left tackle, and have two starting tackles with a combined 1 career start. Expect the Seahawks to blitz early and often, which should take advantage of the lack of experience the Bills line enter the game with. The Bills will be forced to counter with a lot of first level throws, which does not bode well for an offense lacking a first level receiver. Their biggest receiving threat, Evans, is better fit for a Loseman-like quarterback, as his third level receiving ability is hindered by Edwards’s lack of a deep ball. It should also be countered by going up against Trufant, one of the best third level defenders in the league. The Bills are in dire need of establishing a running game early and often, but simply lack the fundamental match up to do such. The Seahawks run defense is one of the better ones in the league, and has a sizeable advantage against a very mediocre Bills rushing attack. This notion holds especially true with the leverage of stacking the box, which should occur often due to the expected rust in the Bills passing game.
I will gladly take the consistently good-yet boring team going up against an often hyped young team. The Seahawks have an advantage in every fundamental facet in this game- a rare entity for a team getting points.
Bengals @ Ravens
Play: Ravens +1.5
I am not sure if there is a team in the league in which I deem a bigger sleeper than the Ravens. Their defense looks very similar to the elite one they put on the field a couple of years back, one that was hindered to injuries to the secondary last year. Entering the season on a healthier note (although still having some injuries) this team enters week one lacking one weakness on defense. On the offensive side of the ball, the marketplace is being over flooded with reasons why they should be horrible. They have a rookie starting at quarterback, their offensive line is suspect (and no longer possesses their Hall of Fame left tackle) and they may be without their biggest offensive weapon, McGahee. However, an overwhelming amount of negative sentiment on an offensive unit usually results in an over adjustment in market price, and this game is no different.
No, the Ravens don’t have a potent offense. But for a bettor, a profitable offense is usually the one that plays better than what the marketplace is expecting- and the Ravens provide that type of offense. It was an offense that lacked any passing game last year, and although probably lacking such again this year, it is a passing game that has more upside than downside against last year’s productivity. It is also a passing game primed to start the season on a high note, playing at home against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, which also lacks any pass rush that is ideal to lead a rookie quarterback into mistakes. Flaco will also be backed by an underrated offensive line and underrated receiving unit, who in actuality has four receiving threats to provide him. Whether McGahee plays or not, the Ravens running game should produce average productivity. Although every pundit is claiming the Ravens need an exceptional game on the ground to win this game and give Flacco a minimal role, I beg to differ. The Ravens will need only a mediocre running game to provide their passing game with mediocre production. A mediocre production appears all that is needed for the Ravens defense and special teams to win this game.
The Bengals have a lot of big name players on offense, but just can’t play terribly well together. That is a recipe for disaster for people who back them monetarily, as that is one of the more common overvaluation variables in pro football. I really think the Ravens defense finishes in the top five this year- and will be one of the more potent home defenses in the league. Their run defense may be second to none- and should dominate the Bengals running attack with only seven in the box. This may be more advantageous than what appears on the surface, as the Bengals passing game has their fair share of question marks, and showed a lack of cohesiveness in the pre season. The Ravens have a solid three corner combo that can counter the Bengals receiving depth.
Don’t let last year’s series sweep and horrible the Ravens put forth fool you. The sweep was predicated on a 12-2 turnover ratio, which is more of an anomaly than a sustainable advantage. The best unit on the field- the Ravens defense, the home team, and the points.
Rams @ Eagles
Play: Eagles -7
The Eagles are a team most pundits have high expectations on. Linesmakers appear quick to follow with the O/U win total they placed on them in a highly competitive division. However, this is one team in which I feel initial expectations that public has on them is right.
In my opinion, there is no other team in football this week that provides more fundamental advantages than the Eagles. The Eagles running game should be one of the more productive ones in the league this year, and is primed for a big start to the season, facing a Rams run defense that should rank near the bottom of the league, and possesses deficiencies that match up against the Eagles running strengths- mainly their inability to wrap up should provide them difficulties against an elusive runner like Westrbrook. The Eagles should have a balanced offensive attach this season now that McNaab is back under center. Again, this is not ideal for a Rams defense that lacks any strength on defense, which leads me to believe the Eagles should put forth many scoring drives as they should have many advantages they could go to. The injuries to Eagles two starting receivers is not as damaging than appears to be on the surface, as it is countered by injuries to the Rams secondary, as well as the Eagles ability to go to their running back and tight end in the passing game. Expect the Eagles to score early and often, which does not bode well for a Rams offense that lacks a one dimensional game plan, while boding well for an Eagles defense that feeds off offenses forced to abandon the run.
The Rams offense has some big name players, but as long as their offensive line ranks near the bottom of the league, they will not be able to utilize their skill players to the best of their ability. The Eagles defense, much like their offense, is solid in every aspect, and provides the team with a decisive advantage against their counterpart’s offense. The Eagles added depth to their corner spot by adding Samuel- which gives them the best corner trio in the league. It also gives Johnson that much more leverage with his blitzing schemes that may be a nightmare for a batter Rams line that has been horrible against the blitz for years. The Rams biggest hope is Jackson, whose role should be limited if they fall behind early. Even if they aren’t forced to abandon the run because of the score, they may be forced due to the Eagles trench advantage. Don’t expect much out of the Rams offense this week.
This has the makings of a blowout. Every year, the market has high expectations for the Rams with the “this time it’s different” attitude. In recent years, the Eagles early season expectations have been buried in a difficult division. For a bettor, this match could not have happened at a better time, as expectations override fundamentals. I’ll take the favorite.
Panthers @ Chargers
Play: Panthers +9.5
The Chargers may end up being a top three team in the league this season, but given the past history of their sluggish starts to the season, injuries to their offensive line, and their two best defensive players playing below 100 percent on Sunday, I would be reluctant to price them as such. The books decided to differ with the opening line, and value bettors were quick to send this game from off the ten.
The Panther defense should be much improved this year, and really lacks a weakness that the Chargers can consistently take advantage of. Having this type of defense is ideal for a large underdog, as it makes them hard to blowout. The Chargers have the propensity to kick their offense in high gear later in the season, and may start the season off on a more conservative, rusty note. Having a back up left tackle matched against Peppers can pose problems for the Chargers.
Expect the Panthers to run early and often in this game, and try to shorten the clock. Although not ideal for their chances to win the game, it bodes well for their spread covering chances. Expect a huge drop-off in productivity in the Chargers run defense this year. This prediction is magnified early on, as two integral parts of the running defense, Merriman and Williams are nowhere near a 100 percent. This should allow the Panthers average running attack to actually have the advantage in this game, which not only shortens the clock, but adds value to a passing game that his heavily dependent on the run for success. The Panthers also provide a passing game heavily dependent on the first level, which counters the Chargers ability to get to the quarterback. Even without Smith, the Panthers should be effective enough in the air to keep this one within single digits.
The Panthers are simply too good of a team to lay this many points against this early in the season where top teams have yet to peak. Expect both teams largest success to come on the ground, shortening the clock, and keeping possessions low. This should make it difficult for the Chargers to run away with this game.
Totals
Jets @ Dolphins
Play: Over 36
Both quarterbacks are highly motivated to put forth a solid game on Sunday, and both defenses provide enough maneuvering room to allow them to accomplish such. Although Favre may not add as much value to the Jets team as the market is discounting, he should add more value to their Overs. He not only opens up the offense by replacing a slow pace offensive passing game heavily dependent on the first level, with one that attacks the second and third at a high rate, but also opens up the possibility for more errors that can lead the opposition with easy points. That said, the Dolphins lack of third level coverage should provide Favre the opportunity to attack the deep portion of the field early and often. This notion is particularly true if backed by a running game. The addition of Faneca should provide a huge hidden boost to the Jets running attack, while always practicing against the 3-4 should allow them to attack a defense playing the 3-4 for the first time in years. With the Jets having advantages in the air as well as the ground, it is hard to imagine them not reaching the 20’s in this game, against a defense whose poor performance last season was masked (and blamed) by their offenses inefficiencies. Losing veteran leadership and not replacing them with much, leaves a lot to be desired for a Dolphins defense that should have their hands full week in and week out.
Although not a potent offense, the Dolphins may have an underrated one. Their running game should allow them to move the chains, and allow Pennington to work within his means- something he is heavily dependent on. Knowing the Jets defense well, should also give him an embedded advantage not appearing in the market price. Expect the Dolphins to keep this game close, but putting up around 20 points as well. Good value on the Over.
Texans @ Steelers
Play: Under 43
Last year the Texans were a solid Over play, as their offense kicked it into high gear late in the season, while their defense still had holes that could be taken advantage of. Although one would expect the young Texans offense to improve off last year, as Schaub gets more experience, it is their defense that should bear witness to the biggest upgrade. Their defense has the ideal match up to make a statement early, against an offense in which I deem to perform much worse than market expectations this year. If the Steelers want to have success on offense they will have to slow down the tempo and counter the Texans front speed with a power running game. Expect a heavy dose of running early and often to take advantage of the Texans lack of size up front. However, the Steelers offensive line continues to depreciate yet again this year, which does not bode well for a running style that needs to hit second gear to be effective. Expect a lot of decent drives by the Steelers offense that either ends in punts or 3, as this game should play within the 30 yard lines.
The Texans offense is an offense the marketplace is bullish on, but one that should not see much of an improvement off last years overachieving performance. It is also an offense heavily dependent on the passing game, which is not ideal at the beginning of the season on the road, when timing can not be as effective. The Texans also lack one fundamental advantage against this Steelers top tier defense to make me think they score more than one touchdown. Expect the Texans to be committed to the running game throughout, no matter how ineffective it is, as they need to keep the Steelers pass rush at bay, and counter the blitzes and disadvantages in the trenches. Exceeding 17 is a stretch. Good vale on the Under.
Jaguars @ Titans
Play Over 36.5
Last time these two teams met, the line was set at 36. Since that game, the Jaguars went Over ten straight times, as their offense witnessed a vast improvement with Garrard proving to be the real deal. Should we expect the same out of the Jaguars offense this year? Yes. As odd as it is to say, it is the Jaguars defense that is the teams Achilles heal. Expect them to witness a huge drop-off this season, especially defending the run. This bodes well for a Titans offense, heavily dependent on the run, and the same offense that nearly reached 300 yards on the ground the first time the played the Jaguars last year. Young is not a quarterback that can light up a scoreboard, but is an Over quarterback, as his high variance per play would support. This also bodes well when facing an aggressive defense that takes chances and has big play ability in their own right. Don’t be surprised to see the Titans have success on offense to open out the season.
The Jaguars offense is one of the better ones in the league. The Titans defense should also depreciate off last year’s productivity. This holds true especially defending the run, which also doesn’t bode well for the Under, as the Jaguars have big play running capability, and used the play action fake more than any other team in the league last year. Expect decisive advantages in the air and on the ground for the Jaguars this week.
The Jaguars are going to be an Over team yet against this as long as the marketplace provides prices to allow such. Week 1- they have.
Cowboys @ Browns
Play Under 48.5
At first blush, anyone looking at this game would immediately assume shootout. The total clearly indicates such. Proceed with caution, as reaching 50 points needs a lot successful passing- which is a lot to ask out of teams in week 1. Such a notion should hold especially true for two offenses that struggled during the first quarter of last season, and got progressively better as the season went on. The Browns may be a good Under play until the marketplace realizes that their offense is not as good as everyone is expecting, and should not be able to match last years numbers. They should also be outmatched against a Cowboys defense that fundamentally matches up well against them, and has the tools to counter the Browns strengths. The Cowboys offense should have some success against the Browns defense, but success may have to come upon chipping away at the field and utilizing the running game than one might think. Expect the Browns to make up for their overmatched secondary by using predominantly zone defenses and having 5 or 6 defensive backs on the field at all times. Although this may not force many points out of the Cowboys, I will take a bend-don’t break philosophy any day with an Under on this many points.
Cardinals @ Niners
Play: Under 42
This game consists of one anemic, conservative offense in the Niners, one overrated and sub par offense in the Cardinals, one defense that always plays much better at home in the Niners, and one defense that may be one of the most improved this year in the Cardinals. Combine that with a total set this high, and the Under is hard to pass up. Don’t let a Martz run offense fool you. Expect some growing pains and conservative play calling early in the season. However, it is an offense that should improve just enough to actually favor the Under, as it will prevent a lot more three and outs and favorable field position for the opposition. Expect a lot of running from the Niners, but not a lot of running success, which should make O’Sullivan’s passing game that much less efficient. Even when the Niners piece together a big drive, it will more than likely end up in three points, as their red zone offense was the worst in the league last year. The breakout year for Davis most are expecting may have to wait until week 2, as the Cardinals are one of the best teams in the league defending tight ends.
Warner won the job by default, and is well past his prime. Backed by one of the worst running games in the league and the Cardinals offense will struggle to take advantage of their elite receiving tandem. Clements ability to single up any receiving in the league leaves extra attention to be put on Fitzgerald, making neither receiving to have a particular advantageous match up. The Niners defense is not good, but goes all out- especially in home games. They won’t give much to the Cardinals overrated offense. Under is a value play in my opinion.
Seahawks @ Bills
Play: Seahawks +1
A lot of people deem the Bills as a “sexy” sleeper this year- a young, fiery team that played above their potential last year. The Seahawks on the other hand, is that team primed to fly under the radar, as they are good-not great, old-not young, and just didn’t do enough to get pundits to look their way. That said, they may be the true NFC sleeper team this year.
The departure of Alexander should improve the Seahawks absence. Well past his prime, and providing a style of running that simply was no longer commensurate to the Seahawks depreciating run blocking schemes, Alexander passing the torch to a Jones/Morris combination should add spark to the Seahawks running game this season. Such a notion should come to fruition in game one against a Bills run defense that may appear more potent on paper than on the field. Morris and Jones’ ability to attack the perimeter bodes well, as it can counter the improved Bills interior run defense, while targeting their suspect exterior run defense, which will miss the Crowell. If the Seahawks running game is as successful as I suspect, their passing game will bare a sizeable edge. The Seahawks may not appear to posses a potent passing game, lacking a marquee pass receiver, but this may be one of the more underrated units in the league. A system used to distribute the ball well, expect them to be able to minimize the depreciation in their passing game due to the injuries to Branch and Engram. The lack of depth in the Bills secondary, should allow a spread offense like the Seahawks to increase productivity. Don’t let the Seahawks injuries fool you. Their well oil machine looked ready in pre season, and should capitalize on a defense that may lack cohesiveness this early in the season due to lacking playing experience as a unity together. The Seahawks are primed for success both on the ground as well as in the air this Sunday.
Despite being a defense that showed a huge disparity between home and away production, the Seahawks are a type of defense that can capitalize on a young offense primed for rust no matter where the game is played. Edwards lacked playing time in the preseason, which is not ideal for a young quarterback playing against a fast defense that uses a lot of complex blitzing schemes. It is also not ideal when you are playing without your left tackle, and have two starting tackles with a combined 1 career start. Expect the Seahawks to blitz early and often, which should take advantage of the lack of experience the Bills line enter the game with. The Bills will be forced to counter with a lot of first level throws, which does not bode well for an offense lacking a first level receiver. Their biggest receiving threat, Evans, is better fit for a Loseman-like quarterback, as his third level receiving ability is hindered by Edwards’s lack of a deep ball. It should also be countered by going up against Trufant, one of the best third level defenders in the league. The Bills are in dire need of establishing a running game early and often, but simply lack the fundamental match up to do such. The Seahawks run defense is one of the better ones in the league, and has a sizeable advantage against a very mediocre Bills rushing attack. This notion holds especially true with the leverage of stacking the box, which should occur often due to the expected rust in the Bills passing game.
I will gladly take the consistently good-yet boring team going up against an often hyped young team. The Seahawks have an advantage in every fundamental facet in this game- a rare entity for a team getting points.
Bengals @ Ravens
Play: Ravens +1.5
I am not sure if there is a team in the league in which I deem a bigger sleeper than the Ravens. Their defense looks very similar to the elite one they put on the field a couple of years back, one that was hindered to injuries to the secondary last year. Entering the season on a healthier note (although still having some injuries) this team enters week one lacking one weakness on defense. On the offensive side of the ball, the marketplace is being over flooded with reasons why they should be horrible. They have a rookie starting at quarterback, their offensive line is suspect (and no longer possesses their Hall of Fame left tackle) and they may be without their biggest offensive weapon, McGahee. However, an overwhelming amount of negative sentiment on an offensive unit usually results in an over adjustment in market price, and this game is no different.
No, the Ravens don’t have a potent offense. But for a bettor, a profitable offense is usually the one that plays better than what the marketplace is expecting- and the Ravens provide that type of offense. It was an offense that lacked any passing game last year, and although probably lacking such again this year, it is a passing game that has more upside than downside against last year’s productivity. It is also a passing game primed to start the season on a high note, playing at home against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, which also lacks any pass rush that is ideal to lead a rookie quarterback into mistakes. Flaco will also be backed by an underrated offensive line and underrated receiving unit, who in actuality has four receiving threats to provide him. Whether McGahee plays or not, the Ravens running game should produce average productivity. Although every pundit is claiming the Ravens need an exceptional game on the ground to win this game and give Flacco a minimal role, I beg to differ. The Ravens will need only a mediocre running game to provide their passing game with mediocre production. A mediocre production appears all that is needed for the Ravens defense and special teams to win this game.
The Bengals have a lot of big name players on offense, but just can’t play terribly well together. That is a recipe for disaster for people who back them monetarily, as that is one of the more common overvaluation variables in pro football. I really think the Ravens defense finishes in the top five this year- and will be one of the more potent home defenses in the league. Their run defense may be second to none- and should dominate the Bengals running attack with only seven in the box. This may be more advantageous than what appears on the surface, as the Bengals passing game has their fair share of question marks, and showed a lack of cohesiveness in the pre season. The Ravens have a solid three corner combo that can counter the Bengals receiving depth.
Don’t let last year’s series sweep and horrible the Ravens put forth fool you. The sweep was predicated on a 12-2 turnover ratio, which is more of an anomaly than a sustainable advantage. The best unit on the field- the Ravens defense, the home team, and the points.
Rams @ Eagles
Play: Eagles -7
The Eagles are a team most pundits have high expectations on. Linesmakers appear quick to follow with the O/U win total they placed on them in a highly competitive division. However, this is one team in which I feel initial expectations that public has on them is right.
In my opinion, there is no other team in football this week that provides more fundamental advantages than the Eagles. The Eagles running game should be one of the more productive ones in the league this year, and is primed for a big start to the season, facing a Rams run defense that should rank near the bottom of the league, and possesses deficiencies that match up against the Eagles running strengths- mainly their inability to wrap up should provide them difficulties against an elusive runner like Westrbrook. The Eagles should have a balanced offensive attach this season now that McNaab is back under center. Again, this is not ideal for a Rams defense that lacks any strength on defense, which leads me to believe the Eagles should put forth many scoring drives as they should have many advantages they could go to. The injuries to Eagles two starting receivers is not as damaging than appears to be on the surface, as it is countered by injuries to the Rams secondary, as well as the Eagles ability to go to their running back and tight end in the passing game. Expect the Eagles to score early and often, which does not bode well for a Rams offense that lacks a one dimensional game plan, while boding well for an Eagles defense that feeds off offenses forced to abandon the run.
The Rams offense has some big name players, but as long as their offensive line ranks near the bottom of the league, they will not be able to utilize their skill players to the best of their ability. The Eagles defense, much like their offense, is solid in every aspect, and provides the team with a decisive advantage against their counterpart’s offense. The Eagles added depth to their corner spot by adding Samuel- which gives them the best corner trio in the league. It also gives Johnson that much more leverage with his blitzing schemes that may be a nightmare for a batter Rams line that has been horrible against the blitz for years. The Rams biggest hope is Jackson, whose role should be limited if they fall behind early. Even if they aren’t forced to abandon the run because of the score, they may be forced due to the Eagles trench advantage. Don’t expect much out of the Rams offense this week.
This has the makings of a blowout. Every year, the market has high expectations for the Rams with the “this time it’s different” attitude. In recent years, the Eagles early season expectations have been buried in a difficult division. For a bettor, this match could not have happened at a better time, as expectations override fundamentals. I’ll take the favorite.
Panthers @ Chargers
Play: Panthers +9.5
The Chargers may end up being a top three team in the league this season, but given the past history of their sluggish starts to the season, injuries to their offensive line, and their two best defensive players playing below 100 percent on Sunday, I would be reluctant to price them as such. The books decided to differ with the opening line, and value bettors were quick to send this game from off the ten.
The Panther defense should be much improved this year, and really lacks a weakness that the Chargers can consistently take advantage of. Having this type of defense is ideal for a large underdog, as it makes them hard to blowout. The Chargers have the propensity to kick their offense in high gear later in the season, and may start the season off on a more conservative, rusty note. Having a back up left tackle matched against Peppers can pose problems for the Chargers.
Expect the Panthers to run early and often in this game, and try to shorten the clock. Although not ideal for their chances to win the game, it bodes well for their spread covering chances. Expect a huge drop-off in productivity in the Chargers run defense this year. This prediction is magnified early on, as two integral parts of the running defense, Merriman and Williams are nowhere near a 100 percent. This should allow the Panthers average running attack to actually have the advantage in this game, which not only shortens the clock, but adds value to a passing game that his heavily dependent on the run for success. The Panthers also provide a passing game heavily dependent on the first level, which counters the Chargers ability to get to the quarterback. Even without Smith, the Panthers should be effective enough in the air to keep this one within single digits.
The Panthers are simply too good of a team to lay this many points against this early in the season where top teams have yet to peak. Expect both teams largest success to come on the ground, shortening the clock, and keeping possessions low. This should make it difficult for the Chargers to run away with this game.
Totals
Jets @ Dolphins
Play: Over 36
Both quarterbacks are highly motivated to put forth a solid game on Sunday, and both defenses provide enough maneuvering room to allow them to accomplish such. Although Favre may not add as much value to the Jets team as the market is discounting, he should add more value to their Overs. He not only opens up the offense by replacing a slow pace offensive passing game heavily dependent on the first level, with one that attacks the second and third at a high rate, but also opens up the possibility for more errors that can lead the opposition with easy points. That said, the Dolphins lack of third level coverage should provide Favre the opportunity to attack the deep portion of the field early and often. This notion is particularly true if backed by a running game. The addition of Faneca should provide a huge hidden boost to the Jets running attack, while always practicing against the 3-4 should allow them to attack a defense playing the 3-4 for the first time in years. With the Jets having advantages in the air as well as the ground, it is hard to imagine them not reaching the 20’s in this game, against a defense whose poor performance last season was masked (and blamed) by their offenses inefficiencies. Losing veteran leadership and not replacing them with much, leaves a lot to be desired for a Dolphins defense that should have their hands full week in and week out.
Although not a potent offense, the Dolphins may have an underrated one. Their running game should allow them to move the chains, and allow Pennington to work within his means- something he is heavily dependent on. Knowing the Jets defense well, should also give him an embedded advantage not appearing in the market price. Expect the Dolphins to keep this game close, but putting up around 20 points as well. Good value on the Over.
Texans @ Steelers
Play: Under 43
Last year the Texans were a solid Over play, as their offense kicked it into high gear late in the season, while their defense still had holes that could be taken advantage of. Although one would expect the young Texans offense to improve off last year, as Schaub gets more experience, it is their defense that should bear witness to the biggest upgrade. Their defense has the ideal match up to make a statement early, against an offense in which I deem to perform much worse than market expectations this year. If the Steelers want to have success on offense they will have to slow down the tempo and counter the Texans front speed with a power running game. Expect a heavy dose of running early and often to take advantage of the Texans lack of size up front. However, the Steelers offensive line continues to depreciate yet again this year, which does not bode well for a running style that needs to hit second gear to be effective. Expect a lot of decent drives by the Steelers offense that either ends in punts or 3, as this game should play within the 30 yard lines.
The Texans offense is an offense the marketplace is bullish on, but one that should not see much of an improvement off last years overachieving performance. It is also an offense heavily dependent on the passing game, which is not ideal at the beginning of the season on the road, when timing can not be as effective. The Texans also lack one fundamental advantage against this Steelers top tier defense to make me think they score more than one touchdown. Expect the Texans to be committed to the running game throughout, no matter how ineffective it is, as they need to keep the Steelers pass rush at bay, and counter the blitzes and disadvantages in the trenches. Exceeding 17 is a stretch. Good vale on the Under.
Jaguars @ Titans
Play Over 36.5
Last time these two teams met, the line was set at 36. Since that game, the Jaguars went Over ten straight times, as their offense witnessed a vast improvement with Garrard proving to be the real deal. Should we expect the same out of the Jaguars offense this year? Yes. As odd as it is to say, it is the Jaguars defense that is the teams Achilles heal. Expect them to witness a huge drop-off this season, especially defending the run. This bodes well for a Titans offense, heavily dependent on the run, and the same offense that nearly reached 300 yards on the ground the first time the played the Jaguars last year. Young is not a quarterback that can light up a scoreboard, but is an Over quarterback, as his high variance per play would support. This also bodes well when facing an aggressive defense that takes chances and has big play ability in their own right. Don’t be surprised to see the Titans have success on offense to open out the season.
The Jaguars offense is one of the better ones in the league. The Titans defense should also depreciate off last year’s productivity. This holds true especially defending the run, which also doesn’t bode well for the Under, as the Jaguars have big play running capability, and used the play action fake more than any other team in the league last year. Expect decisive advantages in the air and on the ground for the Jaguars this week.
The Jaguars are going to be an Over team yet against this as long as the marketplace provides prices to allow such. Week 1- they have.
Cowboys @ Browns
Play Under 48.5
At first blush, anyone looking at this game would immediately assume shootout. The total clearly indicates such. Proceed with caution, as reaching 50 points needs a lot successful passing- which is a lot to ask out of teams in week 1. Such a notion should hold especially true for two offenses that struggled during the first quarter of last season, and got progressively better as the season went on. The Browns may be a good Under play until the marketplace realizes that their offense is not as good as everyone is expecting, and should not be able to match last years numbers. They should also be outmatched against a Cowboys defense that fundamentally matches up well against them, and has the tools to counter the Browns strengths. The Cowboys offense should have some success against the Browns defense, but success may have to come upon chipping away at the field and utilizing the running game than one might think. Expect the Browns to make up for their overmatched secondary by using predominantly zone defenses and having 5 or 6 defensive backs on the field at all times. Although this may not force many points out of the Cowboys, I will take a bend-don’t break philosophy any day with an Under on this many points.
Cardinals @ Niners
Play: Under 42
This game consists of one anemic, conservative offense in the Niners, one overrated and sub par offense in the Cardinals, one defense that always plays much better at home in the Niners, and one defense that may be one of the most improved this year in the Cardinals. Combine that with a total set this high, and the Under is hard to pass up. Don’t let a Martz run offense fool you. Expect some growing pains and conservative play calling early in the season. However, it is an offense that should improve just enough to actually favor the Under, as it will prevent a lot more three and outs and favorable field position for the opposition. Expect a lot of running from the Niners, but not a lot of running success, which should make O’Sullivan’s passing game that much less efficient. Even when the Niners piece together a big drive, it will more than likely end up in three points, as their red zone offense was the worst in the league last year. The breakout year for Davis most are expecting may have to wait until week 2, as the Cardinals are one of the best teams in the league defending tight ends.
Warner won the job by default, and is well past his prime. Backed by one of the worst running games in the league and the Cardinals offense will struggle to take advantage of their elite receiving tandem. Clements ability to single up any receiving in the league leaves extra attention to be put on Fitzgerald, making neither receiving to have a particular advantageous match up. The Niners defense is not good, but goes all out- especially in home games. They won’t give much to the Cardinals overrated offense. Under is a value play in my opinion.