Front Page NFL Picks (Sun., Sep 7)

[Willie Bee]

Arizona Cardinals & San Francisco 49ers Under 42

Game Time: 09/07/2008 04:15 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

The Under has been a good play early in the last two NFL seasons, going 23-9 in Weeks 1 and 2 since the start of the '07 season. Play the 49ers and Cardinals Under.

The Under has been a profitable proposition in the opening week of the regular season in recent years. Two years ago, 12 of 16 games stayed below the total in Week 1. Last season, 11 of the 16 opening week games finished below the total. That's a combined mark of 23-9, which is a healthy 72%.

Arizona at San Francisco was one of last season's Week 1 games which stayed below the total. The 49'ers scored the winning touchdown with 22 seconds remaining but that still only brought the final score to 20-17. Including that result, the Under was 6-2 in San Francisco's home games last season and 11-5 in their 16 games overall.

That's no big surprise as the 2007 49'ers averaged a mere 13.7 points per game. With Mike Martz brought in to oversee the offense, this year's team should score more points. However, that won't necessarily happen immediately. Let's take a closer look at some situational stats.

The 49'ers, who are currently listed as slight underdogs, have seen the Under go 9-2 the last 11 times they were underdogs of four points or less. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have seen the Under go 11-6 the last 17 times that they were favored by four points or less. The Over/Under line is currently listed at either 41½ or 42. That's worth mentioning as the Under is 13-5 the last 18 times that the 49'ers played a game with a total ranging from 35½ to 42 and an even better 10-1 when the Cardinals have done so.

Looking a little more closely and we find the Under at 6-1 when the 49'ers have played a home game with a total ranging from 38 to 42, and 4-1 when the Cardinals have played a road game with a total in that range.

Don't be surprised if this one also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. At 41 or better, consider the Under.

Free Pick: Cardinals-49ers Under 42 (-110)

[dmiles1021]

I think this one goes over, 49ers look a lot stronger than last yr

[counterfiet100]

Arizon's Defense will match up very nicely against 49ers. They had one of the worst seasons on offence ever lst year and i dont think J.T. O’Sullivan can handle this team...yet anyway.under sounds good to me i like the cards in this one as well with warner back and larry fitz and boldin....peace

[Willie Bee]

Tennessee Titans +3 to surprise Jaguars in opener

Game Time: 09/07/2008 01:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

David Garrard did not look sharp in preseason, and dealing with the Tennessee pass rush on opening week is no easy task. Take the Titans to pull off the upset.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a dream season last year before losing to the New England Patriots in the second round of the playoffs, but we feel they have a tough opening week matchup with the Tennessee Titans here.

First of all, yes we know it was only preseason, but quarterback David Garrard looked extremely ordinary during the exhibition games, completing just 54 percent of his passes and garnering a very low 75.3 passer rating.

Now he must suddenly flip the switch vs. a devastating Tennessee defensive line, which is no easy feat. Secondly, the Jaguars rely on their two headed running game of Drew and Taylor, but the Titans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

Now Vince Young has not developed into an NFL passer, but Tennessee does have a solid running game with the power running of LenDale White and the speed bursts of Chris Johnson, and do not forget that Young is probably a better running threat that passing threat right now. That may be key vs. a Jacksonville run defense that allowed a rather pedestrian 4.1 yards per carry last year.

We feel that the Titans will have more success with their ball control offense than Jacksonville will this week, and getting a field goal at home certainly does not hurt.

Free Pick: Titans +3 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

KC Chiefs +16 cover at Patriots

Game Time: 09/07/2008 01:00 PM -
By: Ted Sevransky | who2beton.com

Rumors continue to swirl about Tom Brady's leg injury. With that in mind, this is too many points for the New England Patriots to lay in their opener against the Kansas City Chiefs.

This one is real simple. New England closed out the regular season last year with a 1-5 ATS mark, favored by double digits in every single game. Their only pointspread cover during that span came against a Steelers team that was talking trash all week, giving the Patriots that extra motivation that they needed.

In the playoffs, New England went 0-3 ATS, all as double-digit favorites. In the preseason, the Pats went 0-4 ATS, failing to sniff a pointspread cover in any of their four games. We’re talking about a team that is vastly overvalued by the betting marketplace, in the midst of a 1-12 ATS slide; 1-8 as double digit chalk.

Tom Brady didn’t take a snap in the preseason, and he didn’t even rejoin practice until Wednesday. There are rumors swirling that Brady’s injury is far more serious than the Pats have indicated – potentially a fractured leg. His injury riddled offensive line is suspect at best. Key third down back Kevin Faulk is suspended, tight end Ben Watson has a bad knee and Donte Stallworth will be catching passes in Cleveland this year. This is not the same explosive offense that we saw last year. And with question marks all over their secondary, the backdoor should be wide open for Kansas City if the Pats somehow manage to pull away with a big lead.

The Chiefs might be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, but let’s not forget head coach Herm Edwards' penchant for playing conservative football, keeping the games close. In Edwards' two seasons as the Kansas City head honcho, 13 of their 19 losses have come by 11 points or less. Look for that trend to continue here – the Pats have no business laying points in this range to even the weakest of foes here in Week 1. Take the Chiefs.

Free Pick: Chiefs +16 (-110)