Redskins @ Giants
Play: Redskins +4
No- not a play against the “Super Bowl Hangover” team a variety of bettors might rationalize when deriving a position on the Redskins. Rather this is a play on the better, more rounded, healthier team, whose strengths match up against potential problems the Giants possess.
The Redskins are a team that may fly under the radar for the first quarter (or half) of the season. They are a talented team that underachieved last season, but improved as the season progressed. They are primed to continue their late season trend, facing a team that fundamentally does not match up well against them. The Giants success defending the pass was predominantly derived from the success of their defensive line, who will take a big hit without Strahan and Usi (whose injury has been completely ignored by the market- or at the least countered by public betting). Their mediocre tackles and linebackers are now primed to be exposed for their true worth, while Tuck’s productivity and Kiwanuka’s switch back to the line should provide for early season deficiencies. Expect the Redskins running game (which should witness vast improvements compared to last years underachievement) to dictate the game early with their change of pace running back combination and big line that will take advantage of the lack of size and experience, and eventually wear down on a defensive line (which are always prone to getting worn out early in the season) that lacks the ideal depth to counter such a variable. The passing game should feed off the running game, and allow for Campbell to work within his means, a role he appeared to flourish in last season. The Redskins passing game should also see improvement this season, starting in week one, where their shifts and versatility can pose problems for a defense seeing a lot of changes and lacks experience on the outside linebacking spot to counter different looks.
The Redskins defense is the best of the four units that will be on the field most of the game. They defend both the run and pass well, and have given Manning problems in the past, including both games last season. James and Taylor (who both will probably play below potential Thursday) add depth and a needed pass rush the team was lacking last year. This should also allow for an alleviation of blitzing schemes in which are potentially dangerous against an efficient third level passing teams. I am not sold on the Giants passing game this season, as Burress may start off slow (which offsets the potential mismatch against Rogers who is coming off knee surgery), and Toomer who is past his prime. If my bearishness on their passing game comes to fruition, the Giants offense may be dormant, as their running games effectiveness is more correlated to their passing game compared to most teams. It is also a running game that does not match up well against a fast front with solid tackling ability.
Home field advantage? Both teams played well on the road last year, including road victories when they faced each other twice last season.
Expect the Giants to come back to earth really fast in 2008. Their Cinderella story ended with a ring, but the new chapter will start with a loss or a close victory. As market participants rush to bid up the Super Bowl winners playing in front of their electric home crowd, I will sit back, and wait to place my bet on a sleeper Redskins team that no one wants to acknowledge. I will gladly take the four points (and potentially the plus vig that will accompany it come game time).
Play: Redskins +4
No- not a play against the “Super Bowl Hangover” team a variety of bettors might rationalize when deriving a position on the Redskins. Rather this is a play on the better, more rounded, healthier team, whose strengths match up against potential problems the Giants possess.
The Redskins are a team that may fly under the radar for the first quarter (or half) of the season. They are a talented team that underachieved last season, but improved as the season progressed. They are primed to continue their late season trend, facing a team that fundamentally does not match up well against them. The Giants success defending the pass was predominantly derived from the success of their defensive line, who will take a big hit without Strahan and Usi (whose injury has been completely ignored by the market- or at the least countered by public betting). Their mediocre tackles and linebackers are now primed to be exposed for their true worth, while Tuck’s productivity and Kiwanuka’s switch back to the line should provide for early season deficiencies. Expect the Redskins running game (which should witness vast improvements compared to last years underachievement) to dictate the game early with their change of pace running back combination and big line that will take advantage of the lack of size and experience, and eventually wear down on a defensive line (which are always prone to getting worn out early in the season) that lacks the ideal depth to counter such a variable. The passing game should feed off the running game, and allow for Campbell to work within his means, a role he appeared to flourish in last season. The Redskins passing game should also see improvement this season, starting in week one, where their shifts and versatility can pose problems for a defense seeing a lot of changes and lacks experience on the outside linebacking spot to counter different looks.
The Redskins defense is the best of the four units that will be on the field most of the game. They defend both the run and pass well, and have given Manning problems in the past, including both games last season. James and Taylor (who both will probably play below potential Thursday) add depth and a needed pass rush the team was lacking last year. This should also allow for an alleviation of blitzing schemes in which are potentially dangerous against an efficient third level passing teams. I am not sold on the Giants passing game this season, as Burress may start off slow (which offsets the potential mismatch against Rogers who is coming off knee surgery), and Toomer who is past his prime. If my bearishness on their passing game comes to fruition, the Giants offense may be dormant, as their running games effectiveness is more correlated to their passing game compared to most teams. It is also a running game that does not match up well against a fast front with solid tackling ability.
Home field advantage? Both teams played well on the road last year, including road victories when they faced each other twice last season.
Expect the Giants to come back to earth really fast in 2008. Their Cinderella story ended with a ring, but the new chapter will start with a loss or a close victory. As market participants rush to bid up the Super Bowl winners playing in front of their electric home crowd, I will sit back, and wait to place my bet on a sleeper Redskins team that no one wants to acknowledge. I will gladly take the four points (and potentially the plus vig that will accompany it come game time).
