Biggest lock of the week

agendaman · 01-09-12, 01:39 PM

the value only lies in having the right side screw the line movement etc./who do you think will win

freakydave · 01-09-12, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by agendaman

the value only lies in having the right side screw the line movement etc./who do you think will win

QFT
If the Giants don't win it's just a waste of money.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 01:57 PM

You dont have a clue do you? Let me give you a hint, if you get +165 on a coinflip you should probably take it. Are you one of those who will bet your whole BR on a -1000 bet with negative value, sounds like it...

freakydave · 01-09-12, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by p19101

You dont have a clue do you? Let me give you a hint, if you get +165 on a coinflip you should probably take it. Are you one of those who will bet your whole BR on a -1000 bet with negative value, sounds like it...

If you handicap the game & have the dog winning outright you bet the ML.The way you worded your original post it seems like you are a giants fan just taking a shot & calling it a value play.

freakydave · 01-09-12, 02:04 PM

This game is not a coin flip which is what your implying.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by freakydave

This game is not a coin flip which is what your implying.

No, I gave you analogy trying to explain to you how utterfly ignorant this quote is:

Originally posted by freakydave

If the Giants don't win it's just a waste of money.

I have Giants at 34% which gives excellent value. That value is the same win or lose.

freakydave · 01-09-12, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by p19101

No, I gave you analogy trying to explain to you how utterfly ignorant this quote is: I have Giants at 34% which gives excellent value. That value is the same win or lose.

If a 34 % chance of winning is excellent value because the Ml is +334 then you are right If the Gmen do indeed have a 34% chance of winning.But how did you arrive at that % exactly? why do they have a better than 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 chance.It's really just your subjective opinion that they have a 34% chance & that does not represent value as you are a giants fan.

mlesnet · 01-09-12, 02:34 PM

Giants are not going to win. If you really do feel confident that the Giants have a chance to win, just take the 9 points given to them and you should be good.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 02:38 PM

By your logic any bet that loses is a bad bet, therefor my analogy, so you get +10000 on a coin toss, it loses and you will still say afterwards, man that was a bad bet, should never have taken that.

I might be a Giants fan, but first and foremost I'm a punter. I have bet the Giants 7 times this year, I'm not betting them every week just because I'm a fan. Lost 2 of those bets, home vs GB and away vs 49ers.

I wont give you any specifics on how I give the Giants 34%. I will simplify it for you... I have a model that includes factors such as:

*base squad str (pre season)
*form
*injuries
*matchup
and 14 other factors.

While 34% is as you say subjective, the true could be 28%, 31% or 38% or whatever. I trust in my model that I use to calculate betting value. It has made me good $$$ through the years. Being a Giant fan gives me an edge here, I know the Giants squad, their weaknesses and strengths a lot better than most.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by mlesnet

Giants are not going to win. If you really do feel confident that the Giants have a chance to win, just take the 9 points given to them and you should be good.

Have no interest in the points, I believe the value is in the ML here.

freakydave · 01-09-12, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by p19101

By your logic any bet that loses is a bad bet, therefor my analogy, so you get +10000 on a coin toss, it loses and you will still say afterwards, man that was a bad bet, should never have taken that. I might be a Giants fan, but first and foremost I'm a punter. I have bet the Giants 7 times this year, I'm not betting them every week just because I'm a fan. Lost 2 of those bets, home vs GB and away vs 49ers. I wont give you any specifics on how I give the Giants 34%. I will simplify it for you... I have a model that includes factors such as: *base squad str (pre season) *form *injuries *matchup and 14 other factors. While 34% is as you say subjective, the true could be 28%, 31% or 38% or whatever. I trust in my model that I use to calculate betting value. It has made me good $$$ through the years. Being a Giant fan gives me an edge here, I know the Giants squad, their weaknesses and strengths a lot better than most.

Not at all -you can be on the right side & lose that's why they play the games.My objection is to your use of the term value.Now by your own admission there is some subjectivity to your valuation but basically if these two teams meet 3 times your model says the Gmen win outright at least once.
Is that correct? Given that they have already lost once shouldn't the % be higher that they will win outright this time? if the true valuation is possibly < 33% your bet has no value.That is the point you are giants fan touting the Giants there's a shock.I myself a packer fan will be on the Giants + the points at anything over nine as I have estimated that GB wins by 7.

k13 · 01-09-12, 03:51 PM

I have it as 28.9% but more realistically 10% and 0% if Niners beat Saints.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 03:52 PM

@freakydave

I have Giants winning outright 34 / 100 yes.

For this bet to have value they would need to win 24 / 100 outright.

Your numbers are off, but from your first statement I knew statistics and math is not you're approach to things.

Interesting fact is that I have a ROI of 109% over the last 5 years in the NFL. But for bets involving Giants (I have bet against them as well even if it's rare) the ROI is 124%.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by k13

I have it as 28.9% but more realistically 10% and 0% if Niners beat Saints.

How does the game between Saints and Niners affect the Giant game in any way?

ParlayJunkie · 01-09-12, 04:15 PM

Good value in Giants ML for sure. Good Luck.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by ParlayJunkie

Good value in Giants ML for sure. Good Luck.

Indeed, I made half a fortune in 2007, I'd settle for half now

Good luck you too

chopperocker · 01-09-12, 04:28 PM

take the +8.5 if they dont win SU your ticket holds negative value. put the points in your pocket.

freakydave · 01-09-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by p19101

@freakydave I have Giants winning outright 34 / 100 yes. For this bet to have value they would need to win 24 / 100 outright. Your numbers are off, but from your first statement I knew statistics and math is not you're approach to things. Interesting fact is that I have a ROI of 109% over the last 5 years in the NFL. But for bets involving Giants (I have bet against them as well even if it's rare) the ROI is 124%.

I get it & as long as your 34%>24% created by your model is accurate you have a value bet, i don't know it's accurate.

GunShard · 01-09-12, 06:29 PM

Over should be the play.

freakydave · 01-10-12, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by p19101

Not gonna let Lakerboy do this one for some jinx Giants @ GB for +334 Not a lock but love the value

I hope you locked in yesterday because the ML is down to 275 & the supposed value is getting squeezed out.

p19101 · 01-10-12, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by freakydave

I hope you locked in yesterday because the ML is down to 275 & the supposed value is getting squeezed out.

You bet I got in with an 8 unit bet

freakydave · 01-10-12, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by p19101

You bet I got in with an 8 unit bet

BOL to you-should be a shootout.

p19101 · 01-10-12, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by freakydave

BOL to you-should be a shootout.

It might become a shootout if GB manages to get ahead. But I think Giants wants to pound the invigorated ground game, control the clock and time of possession. To wear down the GB defense and make the GB offense frustrated on the side line.

lakerboy · 01-10-12, 04:22 PM

Giants will get blown out

p19101 · 01-10-12, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Giants will get blown out

Just what I wanted to hear, means I'm on the right path here

lakerboy · 01-10-12, 05:27 PM

Books are clean house on juice on the giants and texans this weekend.

Stevedore · 01-10-12, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by p19101

Just what I wanted to hear, means I'm on the right path here

He was right about Denver, just saying.

The Giants can try and run it, but with Pickett back and BOTH Bishop and Hawk back who both missed the first game in NY,controlling the clock won't be as easy as you think.

p19101 · 01-10-12, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by Stevedore

He was right about Denver, just saying.

The Giants can try and run it, but with Pickett back and BOTH Bishop and Hawk back who both missed the first game in NY,controlling the clock won't be as easy as you think.

Hey I was on Denver too, that is about the only pick I've seen him hit

Let me get this straight, I never claimed that NY would walk straight in and dominate GB. I don't think it will be an easy game. I have Giants @ 34% and that is with Ross playing. 34% would mean roughly 1 outta 3 and with +334 that is huge value, rarely do you see value like that. I have gotten huge value two times before this season and it was the first game against Philly and then vs Patriots, both ML plays. I know the Giants, I know they will come to play...

p19101 · 01-15-12, 09:57 PM

Don't say I didn't warn you