CFL Week 9

[dwaechte]

Lines are out for the two West games this week, and I've got a ton of action on it, as I really like everything that's being offered.(Or maybe it's just me being greedy and looking for plays, but the lines were all well off what I expected.)

I'm upping my risk amounts to 1.5 units from here on out, though I'll still have some smaller plays on games I like less.


1.5* Edmonton -3(-105) and
1.5* Under 56

The Eskimos may be the best team in the CFL right now. The offense has been consistently strong all year, while the defense has really played well the last 3 weeks. Ricky Ray and the passing game have been simply unbelievable, as Ray is on pace for one of the finest seasons by a QB in CFL history.

Saskatchewan was easily the strongest team in the league the first few weeks, but the offense hasn't been the same since Durant went down, and injuries have also hurt the secondary. Saskatchewans weak looking offense walking into an improving Edmonton D seems like trouble to me. Meanwhile, Sask's greatest strength, their run defense, won't help them against an Eskimo team that shoiuld be determined to pass the ball all day long. The Eskimos gave up on the run in their last contest, and I expect to see them do the same here.

I didn't think this game would be a great under play, but the 56 total is just too high when Saskatchewan is involved, easily the most likely team in the league to put up a small total.

More to come.





YTD(through week 9): 26-17-1, +8.72

[dwaechte]

1.5* Calgary +3(-110)
1.5* Under 58.5

First off, this total is ridiculous. Putting a total like that on a BC Lions game does not make sense to me, even when the opponent is Calgary. This is easily the highest total of the year, when there have been several other games which deserved higher totals than this one does.

On to the side, BC has been the worst team in the West by a fair margin. They had high expectations, started out slow, rebounded in weeks 3 and 4, and have played 3 pretty weak games since then. Calgary on the other hand has been much more consistent, although the offense has seemed to disappear at times in recent weeks. Burris hasn't lost the starting job yet, and really needs a strong effort to cement his status.


Other plays:

1* Teaser, Calgary +10 and Edm/Sask under 63

Even if Calgary doesn't play like I expect, BC isn't a team I expect to blow anybody out right now.

[betplom]

Nice writeups, I have yet to look closely at these games but I do like playing unders and the totals seem high at first glance.

[Marigold HD]

New rankings came out today:

[1] Saskatchewan (Last Week: 1)
[2] Montreal (Last Week: 2)
[3] Calgary (Last Week: 3)
[4] B.C. (Last Week: 4)
[5] Edmonton (Last Week: 5)
[6] Winnipeg (Last Week: 8)
[7] Toronto (Last Week: 6)
[8] Hamilton (Last Week: 7)

Do you guys agree????

[dwaechte]

My rankings(Sask is so low only because of injuries, at full strength they'd probably be #1):

1. Edmonton
2. Montreal(Amost tied for #1)
3. Saskatchewan
4. Calgary
5. BC(fairly big gap to Calgary)
6. Hamilton
7. Winnipeg
8. Toronto.

[Bobby]

Totals are tough this week. All of Edmonton's home games have ended up over that total, with the lowest game total of 59 pts, but Sask on the road hasn't been involved in high scoring games. BC and Calgary have both been involved in some really high scoring games, but at this rate how high can the totals go in these games?

On the sides to me it seems like an obvious choice to take Calgary on the ML, but maybe this is too obvious of a play? Looks like people are hitting Calgary ATS early and that scares me because I suspect the sharps may back BC on gameday once the early movers eat up the Calgary +3's.

For the Edmonton game I am not as confident as you are in an Edmonton win. It seems like Sask is falling and Edmonton is on the rise but I think that may be a false perception. I"m not going to write off Sask just yet. I think this week we'll see one (maybe both?) dogs win....which one? Tough to say, the obvious choice is Calgary but I fear that may be too obvious of a play.

[Marigold HD]

You always give Edmonton alot of credit with these ranking as I give BC more credit. Two great games coming this week should shake-up the standings easily.

I will post picks soon.....stay tuned.

[dwaechte]

Yep we will indeed learn a lot this week. I know you say you struggle with the East teams, but if anything I struggle more with the West because I feel there's a lot more parity. But I will say that from a statistical standpoint, my numbers are very high on Edmonton, and watching their passing attack only validates that in my mind. I thought BC was in the same class as the others earlier in the year because of their defense, but they've been giving up too many yards the last 3 weeks.

I'm interested in what you come up with, your CFL record to date is immaculate.

[dwaechte]

Finally got our first line movements on these games as the totals each crept down half a point.

[Marigold HD]

Finally got our first line movements on these games as the totals each crept down half a point.

understandable

[Marigold HD]

Yep we will indeed learn a lot this week. I know you say you struggle with the East teams, but if anything I struggle more with the West because I feel there's a lot more parity. But I will say that from a statistical standpoint, my numbers are very high on Edmonton, and watching their passing attack only validates that in my mind. I thought BC was in the same class as the others earlier in the year because of their defense, but they've been giving up too many yards the last 3 weeks.

I'm interested in what you come up with, your CFL record to date is immaculate.

Thanks for the kind words......now the pressure's on lol

[accuscoresucks]

only 2 games as well this week

im on a pass to close to call

gl

[dwaechte]

Edmonton starting to get hit, game could get to -4 by kickoff.

[chipper13101]

should be two great games this weekend boys, sides too close to call. let's hit the totals, unders look good to me in both.

[Bobby]

Holy crap someone hammered down on Edmonton. -6 at 5Dimes, -3.5 -158 at pinny.

[dwaechte]

It just keeps ****ing moving, it wasnt one giant jump, it was 2 or 3 big ones. Perfect

[Bobby]

It's nice to know where the big money is betting but not so nice if you haven't already bet the side and wanted them -3....I can't take Edmonton -6. This seems to be the trend the past few weeks where if you are going to be on the same side as the smart money you need to get your bet in early so you get the right number otherwise you're in trouble. Or, for example if you liked Sask tonight, if you want the other side of the big money you would want to wait for them to lay their bet and move the line everywhere. Really a guessing game as to when you lay your bet.

[dwaechte]

It's nice to know where the big money is betting but not so nice if you haven't already bet the side and wanted them -3....I can't take Edmonton -6. This seems to be the trend the past few weeks where if you are going to be on the same side as the smart money you need to get your bet in early so you get the right number otherwise you're in trouble. Or, for example if you liked Sask tonight, if you want the other side of the big money you would want to wait for them to lay their bet and move the line everywhere. Really a guessing game as to when you lay your bet.

Well thats the whole beauty of capping, you just got to cap it on your own and if your own the right side the market will bear that out. Its tough to win by just following the sart money in a sport like CFL because there aren't many unique lines.

[betplom]

Playing Edmonton Sask UNDER 55

[dwaechte]

Interesting game so far. Sask is definitely proving their talent.

[Bobby]

Well thats the whole beauty of capping, you just got to cap it on your own and if your own the right side the market will bear that out. Its tough to win by just following the sart money in a sport like CFL because there aren't many unique lines.

I hear ya, I don't remember it being like this last year though. Lines would move a point either way but never 2 or 3 like they are now. Someone is just maxing their bet everywhere and with such low limits that's not hard to do for bigger players.

[dwaechte]

Yeah a game moving 2 or 3 points is pretty strange, especially since there werent any important injuries that came down to the wire.

Then again, the Toronto game a week or two ago also moved atleast 1.5 or 2 points before kickoff if i remember correctly.

[Bobby]

I think you guys are in good shape with Edmonton, OU will be close but I don't see Sask scoring too much more. Ray is on his game now, I think Edmn will pull away.

[Bobby]

Great work Edmonton and Under backers, comfortable wins

[dwaechte]

What a telling football game. Saskatchewan is going to drop hard in my rankings until they get Durant and co. back. Crandell made some absolutely terrible throws when he had men open, and Jyles didn’t look much better.

Once Edmonton fixed their pass protection by establishing the running game there just wasn’t much Sask could do. It worked out perfectly on the one touchdown drive in the 2nd quarter, then come the 2nd half all they needed was AJ Harris to seal it up because the Roughrider offense was so brutal.

One negative note to watch for from Edmonton: Apart from big plays, they’ve really seemed to struggle getting into the endzone all year. They’ve been kicking way too many FG’s from inside the 30 yard line, and it this point it’s hard to shrug it off as bad luck.

It was certainly interesting to see the late line movement like that, but it also goes to show just how much easier these lines are to beat than major American sports. Can you imagine an NFL line jumping 3 points on game day without a major injury change?

[Bobby]

Calgary ML for me tonight. I don't care about past SU and ATS trends between these two teams....this is not the same BC team that made those trends in past years and this Calgary team is better than anything they've had in the last 5 years. If you are going to cap based on trends here's one that stood out to me:
Buono is 0-7 SU after being outgained by 120 or more total yds in his previous game as the coach of BC. Calgary has a better QB, better run game, and arguably better defense. They need this win going into next weeks tilt vs Edmonton. I respect guys like Marigolds picks but IMO BC is a franchise that's on the downturn and Calgary is a team that is on the rise and should be in the west final this year.

[chipper13101]

big mistake to underestimate Wally Buono. I say the Lions will cover.

[dwaechte]

You guys ready! Lets get this shit started!

[dwaechte]

Stamps TD 1 minute in!

[dwaechte]

Lookin good on both the Stamps and the under boys, still early though. 10-8 Calg.

[gummo]

I totally forgot I took the home team -3.5 tonight.

[dwaechte]

16-11 at halftime. Jackson is looking way too inconsistent for BC, definitely a good sign.

[dwaechte]

Split the two big bets, but Calgary finishes off the 2nd leg of my teaser for another good profit on the night. Great weekend in the CFL boys!