Front Page NFL Picks (Sat, Aug 16)

[Willie Bee]

St. Louis Rams -3 over Chargers without Tomlinson

Game Time: 08/16/2008 08:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Preseason football is all about incentive, and while the Chargers will be short-handed this game, the Rams want to redeem themselves in front of the home fans.

The St. Louis Rams opened their preseason with an ugly 34-13 loss to the Tennessee Titans, while the San Diego Chargers topped the Dallas Cowboys 31-17, but as oftentimes happens in preseason, look for a couple of flip-flop performances here.

The Rams will be anxious to improve on that dreadful performance, especially in front of their home fans. In fact, Week 2 teams coming off of a straight up loss are 72-50-3, 59.0 percent against the spread since 2000, while Week 2 teams coming off of a win are 52-74-1 ATS for a nice 58.7 percent fade.

The Rams are expected to give quarterback Marc Bulger extensive playing time this week, meaning that he will probably be passing against some San Diego reserves in the second quarter. Granted, running back Steven Jackson has yet to report to camp, but the Rams do have a quality back in Michael Pittman, and they also have some competent reserves in Travis Minor and Brian Leonard. This depth should serve them well vs. the Chargers backups in the second half.

Now San Diego got by without LT last week, but that was vs. an indifferent Dallas team that ran a vanilla offense all game. Also, in addition to Tomlinson, the Chargers will also be without Antonio Gates, Shawn Merriman and Vincent Jackson for this game,

That seems like a lot to overcome vs. a Rams team that in all likelihood actually wants to win this game to erase the memories of the Week 1 debacle.

Free Pick: Rams -3 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts without Manning

Game Time: 08/16/2008 07:30 PM -
By: Tony George | phoenixsports.com

Tony Dungy has never put much stock into preseason wins for the Colts who are still without Peyton Manning. Follow the Falcons at home in Atlanta as FG favorites.

Look for QB Chris Redman to get the start for Atlanta this weekend against the Colts and plenty of playing time when the Falcons host Indianapolis.

We all know the Colts take the preseason very lightly with Tony Dungy as head coach,(0-2 this year), plus Peyton Manning is still out with thea potential for no preseason looming for him, I doubt Jim Sorgi will see much more than four or five series until the role at QB is turned over.

Atlanta is trying to establish a winning attitude with numerous young players and the depth at QB in terms of the preseason is better on the Falcons' side of the ball as Redman, top draft pick Matt Ryan and Joey Harrington are allstull vying for the job. The Falcons had 23 first downs in their preseason opener against Jacksonville and threw for 228 yards while allowing just 129 yards through the air on defense. The red zone numbers were 1-for-3 in missed opportunties, and they suffered a 3-point loss. I look for them at home to get it going against the 0-2, injury-hampered Colts.

Having 10 penalties for 80 yards and four turnovers had the Falcons coaching staff in a bad mood after a loss to Carolina, but that is somewhat expected in a Week 1 preseason game with a new staff in place and lots of young players.

This is also the Colts thrid straight road game, opening up in the Hall of Fame game on a nuetral site, which does play into the mix here as a grueling camp has wound down and they take to the road again. I look for a supreme effort from Atlanta and Redman as well as Ryan in this one, and with both potential starters in there, the first teamers for Atlanta will get more work.

Free Pick: Falcons -3 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Ravens -1½ vs. Minnesota Vikings

Game Time: 08/16/2008 07:30 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

First year head coach John Harbaugh has stressed winning in Baltimore's camp so far, and that gives the edge to the Ravens as small home faves tonight against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens have taken markedly different approaches to this preseason. As opposed to his past camps, Minnesota head coach Brad Childress has tuned it way down this August. It's a much more relaxed atmosphere in Vikings camp, an indicator they're pretty well set as far as their September lineup goes, which also means less need to focus on these meaningless games.

That's not the case in Baltimore, where it's been very physical from the first day of camp, as new coach John Harbaugh is intent on pushing for more intensity. The Ravens have been doing lots of blitzing in practice this week, so they'll surely go that route tonight.

It sure looks to me like the team putting more emphasis on this game is the home team, so I'm on the Ravens as small chalk.

Free Pick: Ravens -1½ (-105)

[Willie Bee]

Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons Over 37½

Game Time: 08/16/2008 07:30 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Indianapolis' defense has leaked for 53 points in their first two preseason games and the Colts have scored despite missing Peyton Manning. Play the over in Atlanta tonight.

Even with the Indianapolis Colts resting Peyton Manning as he recuperates, their offense hasn't looked too bad.

In their last game Jared Lorenzen passed for 117 yards and two touchdowns. Their 'D' has given up a total of 53 points in two preseason games and both games have easily played Over the total.

The Atlanta Falcons lost their preseason opener but played over the total. Matt Ryan looked good leading the offense in their first game and expect him to get more playing time tonight. Look for a high-scoring game; play the Over.

Free Pick: Colts-Falcons Over 37½ (-105)

[Willie Bee]

Vikings, Ravens to soar Over 34½

Game Time: 08/16/2008 07:30 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Vikings allowed 417 yards on defense last week, and don't look for improvement with three Ravens quarterbacks fighting for a starting job. Offensively, Adrian Peterson should see some action.

The Baltimore Ravens went into New England and upset the Patriots last week 16/15 while the Vikings lost at home 34-17 to Seattle, but we look for both offenses to show up this week.

The Ravens have a three-headed quarterback battle going on between Troy Smith, Kyle Boller and Joe Flacco. Now granted, that trio will not strike fear into anyone, but at least you know that they will give an all out effort the whole game, and that the starting offense line will play most of the contest to give each QB an equal chance. It helps that the Ravens are going up against a Minnesota defense that surrendered a whopping 417 yards last week.

As for the Viking offense, quarterback Tarvaris Jackson looked crisp while completing eight of 11 passes in the opener, and superstar running back Adrian Peterson is expected to get his first touches of the preseason this week. Now the Baltimore defense is obviously tough, but do not expect the starters to stay in long with so few defensive positions up for grabs.

The end result should be a rather high scoring affair, especially by preseason standards.

Free Pick: Vikings, Ravens Over 34½ (-110)

[3ptplay]

Im with you big on the vikings over, think that the linesmakers computer has a deflated theoretical number because of the lock tight defense of the Ravens past. Prediction Ravens 24, Vikings 17.

P.S. I like your analysis, thanks.